The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 28

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

HOU 4–0@MIL 1–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: HOU 64 percent, MIL 36 percent. HOU Rockets 64% proj. 115 · final 132 MIL Bucks · home 36% proj. 110 · final 100
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
HOU Houston Rockets 115 132 +17
MIL Milwaukee Bucks (home) 110 100 −10

Forecast: Houston Rockets to win, 64% win probability, projected margin 5.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans HOU

  • Home court+2.1 MILWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+7.5 HOUElo MIL 1363, HOU 1600; season margin MIL −6.1, HOU +5.7.
  • Recent form+2.4 HOULast 10 games, per 100 possessions: MIL scores 112.3 and allows 119.4; HOU scores 111.4 and allows 108.9.
  • Player availability+2.1 MILHOU without Alperen Sengun (25 ppg) and Marcus Smart (8 ppg).

Together: HOU by 5, a 64% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

HOU is 4–0, winning by 10 a game on average (scoring 121, allowing 111). Last season they were a +5 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +2.0. Their defense forces turnovers on 14.8% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense +1.2. Alperen Sengun and Marcus Smart are out (32 rotation points a game combined).

MIL is 1–3, losing by 6 a game on average (scoring 117, allowing 122). Last season they were a −6 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 14.8% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting +3, offensive rebounding +1.6. Their defense forces turnovers on 10.0% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense −1.5.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors MIL; left favors HOU.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −7.5, Recent form −2.4, Player availability +2.1, No playoff context +0.3, Rest and schedule ±0.0, giving −5.3 for MIL. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −7.5 Recent form −2.4 Player availability +2.1 No playoff context +0.3 Rest and schedule ±0.0 Projected margin −5.3
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −5.3. The 64% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputHOUMILEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16001363 −0.5
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −167 −5.5
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +5.7−6.1 −1.6
Games played this season 44 +0.2
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 111.4112.3 +0.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 108.9119.4 −2.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.2 +0.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 32.00.0 +2.1
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueMIL ptsHOU ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-166.8−1.85+3.70−5.55
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)119.4+0.26+1.88−1.62
Rotation points missing (away)32.0−0.15−1.38+1.22
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)108.9−1.19−0.04−1.15
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.81−0.11+0.92
Season scoring margin (away)5.7−0.59+0.24−0.83
Season scoring margin (home)-6.1−0.55+0.24−0.79
Elo rating (home)1363.5−0.19+0.45−0.64
Games played (home)4.0+0.26−0.16+0.42
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)111.4−0.04−0.34+0.30
Combined pace, last 1098.2−1.89−2.19+0.29
Home series wins0.0+0.33+0.08+0.24
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)112.3−0.34−0.11−0.23
Games played (away)4.0+0.06+0.26−0.20
Elo rating (away)1600.3+0.10−0.03+0.13
Series pressure0.0+0.09−0.01+0.10
Back-to-back (home)0+0.02−0.01+0.03
Rest days (home)2.0−0.00+0.01−0.01
Rest days (away)2.0±0.00+0.01−0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingHOU1600MIL13636.1 pts toward HOU

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

HOU1600

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1588 → started this one at 1566
  2. This season's 4 games: +34.1
  • WDAL128–110+4.9
  • W@SAS114–110+11.1
  • W@ATL121–114+10.8
  • WATL120–110+7.3

MIL1363

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1344 → started this one at 1383
  2. This season's 4 games: −19.4
  • L@WAS116–128−13.1
  • LCHI125–132−10.7
  • L@PHI116–127−3.4
  • WIND110–102+7.8
Season scoring marginHOU+5.7MIL−6.11.4 pts toward HOU

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

HOU+5.7

Scores 120.8, allows 111.0 over 4 games: +9.8 a game.

20% this season (+9.8) + 80% last season (+4.7) = +5.7

MIL−6.1

Scores 116.8, allows 122.2 over 4 games: −5.5 a game.

20% this season (−5.5) + 80% last season (−6.2) = −6.1

Offensive rating, last 10HOU111.4MIL112.30.1 pts toward MIL

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

HOU111.4scored, −3.2 vs league

FactorHOULeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.3%54.5%−4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.2%−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.5%26.1%+2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2420.210+0.9
Everything else−0.4

MIL112.3scored, −2.3 vs league

FactorMILLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.6%54.5%+3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)14.8%12.2%−3.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.8%26.1%+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1670.210−1.2
Everything else−2.2
Defensive rating, last 10HOU108.9MIL119.42.8 pts toward HOU

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

HOU108.9allowed, −5.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.7%54.5%+1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)14.8%12.2%+3.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.5%26.1%+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2270.210−0.5
Everything else+1.0

MIL119.4allowed, +4.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.5%54.5%−1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)10.0%12.2%−3.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.2%26.1%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2420.210−0.9
Everything else−0.1
Pace, last 10average 98.20.3 pts toward MIL

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

HOU 95.4 and MIL 100.9 → average 98.2 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingHOU32.0MIL0.02.1 pts toward MIL

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

HOU32.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Alperen Sengun24.534.04
Marcus Smart7.523.92

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

MIL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestHOU2 daysMIL2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

HOU2days

Last played Oct 26 against ATL.

MIL2days

Last played Oct 26 against IND.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

HOU

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 26ATL120–11043-818-2726-322112114.3105.8104.5
Oct 24@ATL121–11443-8914-3521-231413121.0115.299.5
Oct 23@SAS114–11038-7810-2528-31158117.5112.297.5
Oct 21DAL128–11047-8816-3618-251517130.6111.198.5
May 1LAL78–9828-805-2817-2411883.9106.592.5
Apr 29@LAL99–9333-7514-4019-25106110.0103.390.0
Apr 26LAL115–9639-8112-3025-311311122.3103.293.5
Apr 24LAL108–11240-9811-3917-231518104.9105.794.6
Apr 21@LAL94–10136-897-2915-191517105.6112.289.5
Apr 18@LAL98–10735-9311-3317-251321104.3113.894.0

MIL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 26IND110–10241-9513-4415-211116104.899.0104.0
Oct 24@PHI116–12742-9011-3421-282217104.5115.5110.5
Oct 23CHI125–13246-9219-4614-261911113.6120.0110.0
Oct 21@WAS116–12841-9115-4119-231613112.6123.1103.5
Apr 12@PHI106–12639-9013-4715-22179101.9121.2104.0
Apr 10BKN125–10845-8124-4811-16177130.2112.596.0
Apr 8@DET111–13736-8617-5022-281313119.4145.793.5
Apr 7@BKN90–9635-8115-455-819996.8103.293.0
Apr 5MEM131–11550-8316-3215-242010129.7112.7101.5
Apr 3BOS101–13335-8321-4710-13138109.8141.593.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
64%
pregame chance the forecast gave HOU, the winner
HOU was the forecast favorite
27 pts
margin miss
forecast −5, actual −32 for MIL
87th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
12th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.44 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statHOUMIL
Final score132100
Field goals46–84 · 54.8%37–93 · 39.8%
Three-pointers17–38 · 44.7%12–41 · 29.3%
Free throws23–26 · 88.5%14–18 · 77.8%
Rebounds4441
Assists2719
Turnovers1416
Steals128
Blocks103

How the model does with these teams over time: Houston Rockets · Milwaukee Bucks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MIL)−5−32−27
Total points225232+7
HOU points115132+17
MIL points110100−10

Recent form before this game

Houston Rockets

DateOpponentResult
Oct 26 vs ATL W 120–110
Oct 24 at ATL W 121–114
Oct 23 at SAS W 114–110
Oct 21 vs DAL W 128–110
May 1 vs LAL L 78–98

Milwaukee Bucks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 26 vs IND W 110–102
Oct 24 at PHI L 116–127
Oct 23 vs CHI L 125–132
Oct 21 at WAS L 116–128
Apr 12 at PHI L 106–126

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 1 2025-26 MIL at HOU MIL 113 – 119 HOU
Nov 9 2025-26 HOU at MIL HOU 122 – 115 MIL
Feb 25 2024-25 MIL at HOU MIL 97 – 100 HOU
Nov 18 2024-25 HOU at MIL HOU 100 – 101 MIL
Jan 6 2023-24 MIL at HOU MIL 108 – 112 HOU