2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Milwaukee Bucks at Charlotte Hornets
Wednesday, November 12, 2025 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET
MIL 0–0@CHA 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIL Milwaukee Bucks | 123 | 100 | −23 |
| CHA Charlotte Hornets (home) | 112 | 111 | −1 |
Forecast: Milwaukee Bucks to win, 78% win probability, projected margin 11.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | MIL | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1546 | 1316 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | −160 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +1.7 | −6.0 |
| Games played this season | 11 | 10 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 116.3 | 115.7 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 116.1 | 118.1 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 102.1 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 38.4 | 37.8 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingMIL1546CHA1316
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
MIL1546
- Ended last season at 1556 → started this one at 1542
- First 1 games: +2.8
- Last 10 games: +1.1
- W@TOR122–116+6.9
- L@CLE113–118−3.7
- WNYK121–111+9.2
- WGSW120–110+9.1
- LSAC133–135−7.9
- W@IND117–115+6.2
- L@TOR100–128−24.7
- WCHI126–110+11.5
- LHOU115–122−9.1
- W@DAL116–114+3.6
CHA1316
- Ended last season at 1237 → started this one at 1303
- This season's 10 games: +13.4
- WBKN136–117+14.0
- L@PHI121–125−4.1
- W@WAS139–113+25.3
- L@MIA117–144−6.7
- LORL107–123−11.1
- LMIN105–122−5.5
- WUTA126–103+16.4
- L@NOP112–116−4.9
- L@MIA108–126−4.9
- LLAL111–121−5.1
Season scoring marginMIL+1.7CHA−6.0
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
MIL+1.7
Scores 119.6, allows 118.1 over 11 games: +1.6 a game.
55% this season (+1.6) + 45% last season (+1.8) = +1.7
CHA−6.0
Scores 118.2, allows 121.0 over 10 games: −2.8 a game.
50% this season (−2.8) + 50% last season (−9.1) = −6.0
Offensive rating, last 10MIL116.3CHA115.7
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.7).
MIL116.3scored, +1.6 vs league
| Factor | MIL | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 58.8% | 54.3% | +6.8 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.4% | 12.7% | +0.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 21.2% | 26.3% | −2.3 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.187 | 0.233 | −1.3 | |
| Everything else | −1.9 |
CHA115.7scored, +1.0 vs league
| Factor | CHA | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.0% | 54.3% | +2.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 14.7% | 12.7% | −2.9 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 29.7% | 26.3% | +1.5 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.246 | 0.233 | +0.4 | |
| Everything else | −0.5 |
Defensive rating, last 10MIL116.1CHA118.1
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.7).
MIL116.1allowed, +1.4 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.0% | 54.3% | +2.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.9% | 12.7% | −1.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 28.5% | 26.3% | −1.0 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.272 | 0.233 | −1.1 | |
| Everything else | −0.3 |
CHA118.1allowed, +3.4 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.7% | 54.3% | −3.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.8% | 12.7% | −2.7 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 22.1% | 26.3% | +1.9 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.206 | 0.233 | +0.8 | |
| Everything else | +0.2 |
Pace, last 10average 102.1
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
MIL 101.8 and CHA 102.3 → average 102.1 (league 2025-26 to date: 101.3)
Rotation points missingMIL38.4CHA37.8
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
MIL38.4pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 33.0 | 33.6 | 9 |
| Taurean Prince | 5.4 | 21.0 | 7 |
Source: official injury report, 2025-11-12 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
CHA37.8pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| LaMelo Ball | 23.3 | 33.3 | 6 |
| Brandon Miller | 14.5 | 19.9 | 2 |
Source: official injury report, 2025-11-12 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.
RestMIL2 daysCHA2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
MIL2days
Last played Nov 10 against DAL.
CHA2days
Last played Nov 10 against LAL.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
MIL
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | @DAL | 116–114 | 41-91 | 14-36 | 20-25 | 13 | 8 | 111.5 | 109.6 | 104.0 |
| Nov 9 | HOU | 115–122 | 44-79 | 13-29 | 14-24 | 13 | 7 | 118.6 | 127.1 | 96.5 |
| Nov 7 | CHI | 126–110 | 48-103 | 16-39 | 14-18 | 11 | 14 | 118.9 | 103.8 | 106.0 |
| Nov 4 | @TOR | 100–128 | 37-86 | 11-38 | 15-21 | 12 | 9 | 99.0 | 128.0 | 100.5 |
| Nov 3 | @IND | 117–115 | 42-88 | 20-47 | 13-22 | 18 | 9 | 113.6 | 110.6 | 103.5 |
| Nov 1 | SAC | 133–135 | 49-82 | 15-32 | 20-31 | 11 | 9 | 134.3 | 136.4 | 99.0 |
| Oct 30 | GSW | 120–110 | 46-96 | 19-46 | 9-13 | 12 | 7 | 115.4 | 105.8 | 104.0 |
| Oct 28 | NYK | 121–111 | 43-79 | 14-34 | 21-24 | 13 | 4 | 124.7 | 114.4 | 97.0 |
| Oct 26 | @CLE | 113–118 | 40-79 | 13-33 | 20-28 | 17 | 9 | 109.7 | 114.6 | 103.0 |
| Oct 24 | @TOR | 122–116 | 47-90 | 14-40 | 14-25 | 18 | 14 | 117.3 | 110.5 | 104.5 |
CHA
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | LAL | 111–121 | 37-71 | 17-36 | 20-22 | 22 | 9 | 118.1 | 127.4 | 94.5 |
| Nov 7 | @MIA | 108–126 | 37-97 | 10-39 | 24-27 | 18 | 19 | 103.8 | 117.8 | 105.5 |
| Nov 4 | @NOP | 112–116 | 39-82 | 13-38 | 21-28 | 19 | 15 | 112.0 | 114.9 | 100.5 |
| Nov 2 | UTA | 126–103 | 43-88 | 18-43 | 22-22 | 14 | 9 | 124.8 | 102.0 | 101.0 |
| Nov 1 | MIN | 105–122 | 34-86 | 13-45 | 24-27 | 14 | 10 | 104.0 | 122.0 | 100.5 |
| Oct 30 | ORL | 107–123 | 42-83 | 11-30 | 12-15 | 21 | 12 | 111.5 | 128.1 | 96.0 |
| Oct 28 | @MIA | 117–144 | 40-90 | 18-45 | 19-23 | 17 | 9 | 109.3 | 133.3 | 107.5 |
| Oct 26 | @WAS | 139–113 | 47-92 | 15-38 | 30-36 | 11 | 11 | 127.5 | 104.6 | 108.5 |
| Oct 25 | @PHI | 121–125 | 43-89 | 16-42 | 19-28 | 16 | 13 | 117.5 | 120.2 | 103.5 |
| Oct 22 | BKN | 136–117 | 48-90 | 17-36 | 23-33 | 16 | 14 | 128.3 | 110.4 | 106.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | MIL | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 100 | 111 |
| Field goals | 40–88 · 45.5% | 38–86 · 44.2% |
| Three-pointers | 12–30 · 40.0% | 12–40 · 30.0% |
| Free throws | 8–13 · 61.5% | 23–27 · 85.2% |
| Rebounds | 34 | 50 |
| Assists | 29 | 27 |
| Turnovers | 9 | 13 |
| Steals | 6 | 5 |
| Blocks | 6 | 5 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Milwaukee Bucks · Charlotte Hornets
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (CHA) | −11 | +11 | +22 |
| Total points | 235 | 211 | −24 |
| MIL points | 123 | 100 | −23 |
| CHA points | 112 | 111 | −1 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 5 2024-25 | MIL at CHA | MIL 112 – 102 CHA |
| Nov 23 2024-25 | CHA at MIL | CHA 119 – 125 MIL |
| Nov 16 2024-25 | MIL at CHA | MIL 114 – 115 CHA |
| Feb 29 2023-24 | MIL at CHA | MIL 111 – 99 CHA |
| Feb 27 2023-24 | CHA at MIL | CHA 85 – 123 MIL |