The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 8

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks

Sunday, November 8, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

BOS 7–2@MIL 1–8 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BOS 75 percent, MIL 25 percent. BOS Celtics 75% proj. 120 · final 117 MIL Bucks · home 25% proj. 111 · final 97
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BOS Boston Celtics 120 117 −3
MIL Milwaukee Bucks (home) 111 97 −14

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 75% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans BOS

  • Home court+2.1 MILWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+8.4 BOSElo MIL 1330, BOS 1634; season margin MIL −9.0, BOS +8.4.
  • Recent form+3.3 BOSLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: MIL scores 106.1 and allows 118.8; BOS scores 115.4 and allows 107.5.
  • Player availability+0.5 MILBoth teams close to full strength.

Together: BOS by 9, a 75% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

BOS is 7–2, winning by 10 a game on average (scoring 115, allowing 105). Last season they were a +7 team, which still counts for 55% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 12.1% of possessions (league 13.2%), which alone adds about 1.6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +1.0. Their defense holds opponents to 51% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 2.9 points per 100 possessions.

MIL is 1–8, losing by 12 a game on average (scoring 110, allowing 122). Last season they were a −6 team, which still counts for 55% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone costs about 2.8 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: getting to the line −1.6, ball security −1.0. Their defense forces turnovers on 10.6% of opponent possessions (league 13.2%), which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense −2.3, defensive rebounding −1.1.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors MIL; left favors BOS.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −8.4, Recent form −3.3, Player availability +0.5, No playoff context +0.2, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving −8.8 for MIL. -12-60+6+12 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −8.4 Recent form −3.3 Player availability +0.5 No playoff context +0.2 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin −8.8
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −8.8. The 75% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputBOSMILEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16341330 −1.5
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −234 −5.3
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +8.4−9.0 −1.6
Games played this season 99 −0.0
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 115.4106.1 −1.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 107.5118.8 −2.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.1 +0.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.5
Rest days 22 +0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueMIL ptsBOS ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-234.0−1.66+3.63−5.29
Elo rating (home)1330.3−0.31+1.38−1.69
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)106.1−1.69−0.33−1.36
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)118.8+0.27+1.46−1.19
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)107.5−1.22−0.06−1.17
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.94−0.10+1.04
Season scoring margin (away)8.4−0.33+0.46−0.79
Season scoring margin (home)-9.0−0.80−0.01−0.79
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.19+0.31−0.50
Combined pace, last 10100.1+1.61+1.12+0.49
Elo rating (away)1634.4+0.21+0.00+0.20
Home series wins0.0+0.20+0.05+0.16
Games played (away)9.0−0.05+0.05−0.10
Games played (home)9.0−0.17−0.27+0.10
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)115.4+0.07+0.12−0.05
Elimination game0+0.01−0.03+0.04
Rest days (home)2.0+0.01−0.00+0.01
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01±0.00+0.01
Series pressure0.0+0.01+0.02−0.01
Rest days (away)2.0+0.01+0.01±0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.07

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBOS1634MIL13306.8 pts toward BOS

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BOS1634

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1635 → started this one at 1601
  2. This season's 9 games: +32.9
  • L@DET113–121−6.7
  • WNYK107–103+7.1
  • WCHI134–99+5.9
  • WBKN125–124+0.6
  • WCHI125–111+2.8
  • W@ORL108–97+10.3
  • L@HOU93–109−10.8
  • WMIL109–102+1.6
  • W@CHA119–80+22.1

MIL1330

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1344 → started this one at 1383
  2. This season's 9 games: −52.4
  • L@WAS116–128−13.1
  • LCHI125–132−10.7
  • L@PHI116–127−3.4
  • WIND110–102+7.8
  • LHOU100–132−11.2
  • LCLE111–136−10.3
  • L@MIN100–112−2.5
  • L@BOS102–109−1.6
  • LTOR107–121−7.4
Season scoring marginBOS+8.4MIL−9.01.6 pts toward BOS

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BOS+8.4

Scores 114.8, allows 105.1 over 9 games: +9.7 a game.

45% this season (+9.7) + 55% last season (+7.3) = +8.4

MIL−9.0

Scores 109.7, allows 122.1 over 9 games: −12.4 a game.

45% this season (−12.4) + 55% last season (−6.2) = −9.0

Offensive rating, last 10BOS115.4MIL106.11.4 pts toward BOS

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

BOS115.4scored, +3.3 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.2%53.2%+0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%13.2%+1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.4%27.2%+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2290.225+0.1
Everything else+0.6

MIL106.1scored, −6.0 vs league

FactorMILLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.3%53.2%−2.8
Turnovers (TOV%)14.0%13.2%−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.1%27.2%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1690.225−1.6
Everything else−1.4
Defensive rating, last 10BOS107.5MIL118.82.4 pts toward BOS

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

BOS107.5allowed, −4.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.3%53.2%+2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)13.8%13.2%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.2%27.2%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2080.225+0.5
Everything else+0.9

MIL118.8allowed, +6.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.7%53.2%−2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.6%13.2%−3.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.8%27.2%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2240.225+0.0
Everything else+0.4
Pace, last 10average 100.10.5 pts toward MIL

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BOS 97.1 and MIL 103.0 → average 100.1 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.4)

Rotation points missingBOS0.0MIL0.00.5 pts toward MIL

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BOS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-08 20:00 ET. 9 rotation players.

MIL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-08 20:00 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestBOS2 daysMIL2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BOS2days

Last played Nov 6 against CHA.

MIL2days

Last played Nov 6 against TOR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 6@CHA119–8038-8324-4419-231814124.083.396.0
Nov 4MIL109–10237-9116-3919-251219114.7108.594.5
Nov 2@HOU93–10932-8312-4217-201513104.5121.189.5
Nov 1@ORL108–9737-8412-4422-261214116.1104.393.0
Oct 30CHI125–11142-8210-3231-40149121.4106.7103.5
Oct 27BKN125–12442-9311-4130-381411112.6111.7100.5
Oct 26CHI134–9946-9321-4421-292419126.492.5106.5
Oct 23NYK107–10340-8715-3912-161010116.3110.892.5
Oct 20@DET113–12140-8817-4216-211412113.0119.8100.5
May 2PHI100–10937-9313-4913-16510105.3116.094.5

MIL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 6TOR107–12138-8210-4021-252014109.2122.298.5
Nov 4@BOS102–10935-8519-4713-191411108.5114.794.5
Nov 2@MIN100–11238-9915-499-121618102.0113.198.5
Oct 31CLE111–13641-10017-5112-181315105.7129.5105.0
Oct 28HOU100–13237-9312-4114-18161598.0129.4102.0
Oct 26IND110–10241-9513-4415-211116104.899.0104.0
Oct 24@PHI116–12742-9011-3421-282217104.5115.5110.5
Oct 23CHI125–13246-9219-4614-261911113.6120.0110.0
Oct 21@WAS116–12841-9115-4119-231613112.6123.1103.5
Apr 12@PHI106–12639-9013-4715-22179101.9121.2104.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
75%
pregame chance the forecast gave BOS, the winner
BOS was the forecast favorite
11 pts
margin miss
forecast −9, actual −20 for MIL
123rd
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
59th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.29 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBOSMIL
Final score11797
Field goals45–95 · 47.4%35–79 · 44.3%
Three-pointers18–48 · 37.5%15–43 · 34.9%
Free throws9–14 · 64.3%12–14 · 85.7%
Rebounds4836
Assists2724
Turnovers1014
Steals125
Blocks55

How the model does with these teams over time: Boston Celtics · Milwaukee Bucks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MIL)−9−20−11
Total points231214−17
BOS points120117−3
MIL points11197−14

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-08 20:00 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.

Boston Celtics

No players listed.

Milwaukee Bucks

  • Out Gary Trent Jr. · Illness

Recent form before this game

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Nov 6 at CHA W 119–80
Nov 4 vs MIL W 109–102
Nov 2 at HOU L 93–109
Nov 1 at ORL W 108–97
Oct 30 vs CHI W 125–111

Milwaukee Bucks

DateOpponentResult
Nov 6 vs TOR L 107–121
Nov 4 at BOS L 102–109
Nov 2 at MIN L 100–112
Oct 31 vs CLE L 111–136
Oct 28 vs HOU L 100–132

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Nov 4 2026-27 MIL at BOS MIL 102 – 109 BOS
Apr 3 2025-26 BOS at MIL BOS 133 – 101 MIL
Mar 2 2025-26 BOS at MIL BOS 108 – 81 MIL
Feb 1 2025-26 MIL at BOS MIL 79 – 107 BOS
Dec 11 2025-26 BOS at MIL BOS 101 – 116 MIL