The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 23

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks

Friday, October 23, 2026 · tip-off 4:00 PM ET

CHI 0–1@MIL 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: CHI 47 percent, MIL 53 percent. CHI Bulls 47% proj. 121 · final 132 MIL Bucks · home 53% proj. 122 · final 125
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
CHI Chicago Bulls 121 132 +11
MIL Milwaukee Bucks (home) 122 125 +3

Forecast: Milwaukee Bucks to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans MIL

  • Home court+2.1 MILWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Recent form+0.7 CHILast 10 games, per 100 possessions: MIL scores 114.6 and allows 120.2; CHI scores 106.1 and allows 119.2.

Together: MIL by 1, a 53% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

MIL is 0–1, losing by 12 a game on average (scoring 116, allowing 128). Last season they were a −6 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 58% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −4, getting to the line −1.3. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −2.9, free throws allowed −1.1.

CHI is 0–1, losing by 43 a game on average (scoring 92, allowing 135). Last season they were a −5 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −3, offensive rebounding +1.3. Their defense lets opponents shoot 56% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 2.6 points per 100 possessions.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors MIL; left favors CHI.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Recent form −0.7, No playoff context +0.3, Team strength −0.2, Player availability +0.1, Rest and schedule −0.1, giving +1.5 for MIL. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Recent form −0.7 No playoff context +0.3 Team strength −0.2 Player availability +0.1 Rest and schedule −0.1 Projected margin +1.5
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +1.5. The 53% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputCHIMILEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13691370 −0.6
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +71 +0.3
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −7.1−6.5 +1.1
Games played this season 11 −1.0
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 106.1114.6 +1.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 119.2120.2 −0.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 103.0 −0.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.1
Rest days 22 −0.1
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueMIL ptsCHI ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)120.2+0.38+2.31−1.93
Season scoring margin (away)-7.1+0.86−0.99+1.85
Elo rating (home)1369.7−0.09+1.04−1.13
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)119.2+1.24+0.18+1.06
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)106.1−0.13−1.04+0.92
Combined pace, last 10103.0+4.51+5.38−0.88
Games played (away)1.0+0.22+0.97−0.75
Season scoring margin (home)-6.5−0.55+0.20−0.75
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.68−0.06+0.74
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.14+0.55−0.69
Elo rating (away)1369.0+0.30−0.23+0.54
Elo gap incl. home court70.7−0.59−0.88+0.29
Home series wins0.0+0.28+0.03+0.25
Games played (home)1.0+0.65+0.87−0.21
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)114.6+0.01−0.12+0.13
Rest days (home)2.0−0.03+0.02−0.05
Rest days (away)2.0+0.01+0.04−0.03
Back-to-back (home)0+0.02−0.01+0.03
Series pressure0.0+0.03+0.00+0.03
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHI1369MIL13700.3 pts toward CHI

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHI1369

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1339 → started this one at 1379
  2. This season's 1 game: −10.0
  • L@TOR92–135−10.0

MIL1370

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1344 → started this one at 1383
  2. This season's 1 game: −13.1
  • L@WAS116–128−13.1
Season scoring marginCHI−7.1MIL−6.50.1 pts toward MIL

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHI−7.1

Scores 92.0, allows 135.0 over 1 game: −43.0 a game.

5% this season (−43.0) + 95% last season (−5.2) = −7.1

MIL−6.5

Scores 116.0, allows 128.0 over 1 game: −12.0 a game.

5% this season (−12.0) + 95% last season (−6.2) = −6.5

Offensive rating, last 10CHI106.1MIL114.61.1 pts toward MIL

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CHI106.1scored, −8.5 vs league

FactorCHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.0%54.5%−5.3
Turnovers (TOV%)14.4%12.2%−3.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.9%26.1%+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2350.210+0.7
Everything else−2.0

MIL114.6scored, −0.0 vs league

FactorMILLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.0%54.5%+5.3
Turnovers (TOV%)15.3%12.2%−4.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.1%26.1%+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1660.210−1.3
Everything else−0.1
Defensive rating, last 10CHI119.2MIL120.20.9 pts toward CHI

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CHI119.2allowed, +4.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.2%54.5%−2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.2%−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.3%26.1%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2010.210+0.3
Everything else−1.9

MIL120.2allowed, +5.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.9%54.5%−3.6
Turnovers (TOV%)10.2%12.2%−2.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.0%26.1%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2480.210−1.1
Everything else+1.1
Pace, last 10average 103.00.9 pts toward CHI

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHI 107.2 and MIL 98.9 → average 103.0 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingCHI0.0MIL0.00.1 pts toward MIL

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

MIL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestCHI2 daysMIL2 days0.1 pts toward CHI

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHI2days

Last played Oct 21 against TOR.

MIL2days

Last played Oct 21 against WAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21@TOR92–13527-854-3634-47272182.1122.7111.0
Apr 12@DAL128–14952-10610-3814-191311114.3134.2111.5
Apr 10ORL103–12738-8710-3917-26201095.4118.7107.5
Apr 9@WAS119–10843-939-3024-251513111.2100.9107.0
Apr 7@WAS129–9846-9415-4522-27139119.489.9108.5
Apr 5PHX110–12041-9110-3918-231814105.8117.6103.0
Apr 3@NYK96–13635-8111-3515-2616996.0136.0100.0
Apr 1IND126–14547-9713-3919-262012114.5134.3109.0
Mar 30@SAS114–12943-9313-4415-21107111.8125.2102.5
Mar 28@MEM124–12541-8210-3332-432310110.7112.6111.5

MIL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21@WAS116–12841-9115-4119-231613112.6123.1103.5
Apr 12@PHI106–12639-9013-4715-22179101.9121.2104.0
Apr 10BKN125–10845-8124-4811-16177130.2112.596.0
Apr 8@DET111–13736-8617-5022-281313119.4145.793.5
Apr 7@BKN90–9635-8115-455-819996.8103.293.0
Apr 5MEM131–11550-8316-3215-242010129.7112.7101.5
Apr 3BOS101–13335-8321-4710-13138109.8141.593.0
Apr 1@HOU113–11942-8917-4012-161513121.5125.394.0
Mar 31DAL123–9941-9220-5421-261612111.890.8109.5
Mar 29LAC113–12740-7720-4413-15224111.9125.7101.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
47%
pregame chance the forecast gave CHI, the winner
the forecast favored MIL
8 pts
margin miss
forecast +1, actual −7 for MIL
45th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
79th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.75 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statCHIMIL
Final score132125
Field goals46–98 · 46.9%46–92 · 50.0%
Three-pointers12–45 · 26.7%19–46 · 41.3%
Free throws28–30 · 93.3%14–26 · 53.8%
Rebounds4444
Assists2929
Turnovers1419
Steals105
Blocks66

How the model does with these teams over time: Chicago Bulls · Milwaukee Bucks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MIL)+1−7−8
Total points243257+14
CHI points121132+11
MIL points122125+3

Recent form before this game

Chicago Bulls

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 at TOR L 92–135
Apr 12 at DAL L 128–149
Apr 10 vs ORL L 103–127
Apr 9 at WAS W 119–108
Apr 7 at WAS W 129–98

Milwaukee Bucks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 at WAS L 116–128
Apr 12 at PHI L 106–126
Apr 10 vs BKN W 125–108
Apr 8 at DET L 111–137
Apr 7 at BKN L 90–96

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 1 2025-26 MIL at CHI MIL 97 – 120 CHI
Feb 3 2025-26 CHI at MIL CHI 115 – 131 MIL
Dec 27 2025-26 MIL at CHI MIL 112 – 103 CHI
Nov 7 2025-26 CHI at MIL CHI 110 – 126 MIL
Dec 28 2024-25 MIL at CHI MIL 111 – 116 CHI