The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 31

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks

Saturday, October 31, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

CLE 3–2@MIL 1–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: CLE 64 percent, MIL 36 percent. CLE Cavaliers 64% proj. 121 · final 136 MIL Bucks · home 36% proj. 116 · final 111
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers 121 136 +15
MIL Milwaukee Bucks (home) 116 111 −5

Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 64% win probability, projected margin 5.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans CLE

  • Home court+2.1 MILWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+7.1 CLEElo MIL 1352, CLE 1569; season margin MIL −7.4, CLE +2.4.
  • Recent form+0.7 CLELast 10 games, per 100 possessions: MIL scores 111.2 and allows 118.2; CLE scores 109.4 and allows 113.9.
  • Player availability+0.4 MILCLE without Jaylon Tyson (8 ppg).

Together: CLE by 5, a 64% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

CLE is 3–2, winning by 1 a game on average (scoring 118, allowing 117). Last season they were a +3 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 2.9 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −1.9. Their defense is close to league average on all four factors. Jaylon Tyson (8 ppg) is out.

MIL is 1–4, losing by 11 a game on average (scoring 113, allowing 124). Last season they were a −6 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 14.8% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +2.2, shooting +1.9. Their defense forces turnovers on 10.5% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 2.4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense −1.3, defensive rebounding +1.2.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors MIL; left favors CLE.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −7.1, Recent form −0.7, Player availability +0.4, No playoff context +0.2, Rest and schedule +0.2, giving −5.0 for MIL. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −7.1 Recent form −0.7 Player availability +0.4 No playoff context +0.2 Rest and schedule +0.2 Projected margin −5.0
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −5.0. The 64% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputCLEMILEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15691352 −0.6
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −147 −5.3
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.4−7.4 −1.2
Games played this season 55 −0.0
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 109.4111.2 +0.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 113.9118.2 −1.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.7 +0.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 7.80.0 +0.4
Rest days 23 +0.2
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueMIL ptsCLE ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-146.5−1.75+3.52−5.27
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)118.2+0.26+2.06−1.80
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.79−0.20+1.00
Season scoring margin (home)-7.4−0.56+0.38−0.93
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)109.4−0.10−0.93+0.82
Elo rating (home)1352.3−0.12+0.60−0.72
Rotation points missing (away)7.8−0.07+0.53−0.60
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)113.9+0.40+0.00+0.39
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)111.2−0.32−0.04−0.29
Season scoring margin (away)2.4−0.12+0.15−0.27
Home series wins0.0+0.25+0.07+0.18
Games played (away)5.0+0.12+0.28−0.17
Rest days (home)3.0+0.14−0.02+0.16
Combined pace, last 10100.7+2.72+2.58+0.14
Games played (home)5.0+0.03−0.10+0.12
Elo rating (away)1568.7+0.14+0.04+0.10
Series pressure0.0+0.04−0.01+0.05
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.02
Rest days (away)2.0+0.00+0.01−0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCLE1569MIL13525.9 pts toward CLE

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CLE1569

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1598 → started this one at 1574
  2. This season's 5 games: −5.0
  • L@PHI106–114−7.9
  • WBKN125–121+1.3
  • WMIN127–125+4.3
  • WWAS121–111+2.0
  • L@ATL111–114−4.7

MIL1352

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1344 → started this one at 1383
  2. This season's 5 games: −30.6
  • L@WAS116–128−13.1
  • LCHI125–132−10.7
  • L@PHI116–127−3.4
  • WIND110–102+7.8
  • LHOU100–132−11.2
Season scoring marginCLE+2.4MIL−7.41.2 pts toward CLE

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CLE+2.4

Scores 118.0, allows 117.0 over 5 games: +1.0 a game.

25% this season (+1.0) + 75% last season (+2.8) = +2.4

MIL−7.4

Scores 113.4, allows 124.2 over 5 games: −10.8 a game.

25% this season (−10.8) + 75% last season (−6.2) = −7.4

Offensive rating, last 10CLE109.4MIL111.20.5 pts toward MIL

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CLE109.4scored, −5.2 vs league

FactorCLELeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.6%54.5%−2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)13.5%12.2%−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.8%26.1%−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2420.210+0.9
Everything else−0.7

MIL111.2scored, −3.4 vs league

FactorMILLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.8%54.5%+1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)14.8%12.2%−3.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.9%26.1%+2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1700.210−1.1
Everything else−2.6
Defensive rating, last 10CLE113.9MIL118.21.4 pts toward CLE

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CLE113.9allowed, −0.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.2%54.5%+0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.8%12.2%−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.6%26.1%+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2000.210+0.3
Everything else+0.2

MIL118.2allowed, +3.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.4%54.5%−1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.5%12.2%−2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.4%26.1%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2520.210−1.2
Everything else+0.1
Pace, last 10average 100.70.1 pts toward MIL

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CLE 99.7 and MIL 101.8 → average 100.7 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingCLE7.8MIL0.00.4 pts toward MIL

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CLE7.8pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jaylon Tyson7.820.75

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

MIL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestCLE2 daysMIL3 days0.2 pts toward MIL

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CLE2days

Last played Oct 29 against ATL.

MIL3days

Last played Oct 28 against HOU.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CLE

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 29@ATL111–11438-8713-4222-2999113.3116.398.0
Oct 28WAS121–11143-9114-3821-221315127.4119.494.0
Oct 26MIN127–12546-10218-4517-231213112.4112.6101.4
Oct 24BKN125–12140-7916-3829-38239116.8113.1107.0
Oct 22@PHI106–11439-877-2921-28211097.2103.6109.5
May 25NYK93–13032-7711-4018-2222691.2127.5102.0
May 23NYK108–12142-8412-4112-19179110.2124.797.5
May 21@NYK93–10931-809-3522-32813104.5122.589.0
May 19@NYK104–11536-9016-5016-23191196.3105.598.3
May 17@DET125–9443-8511-3428-441114125.094.0100.0

MIL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28HOU100–13237-9312-4114-18161598.0129.4102.0
Oct 26IND110–10241-9513-4415-211116104.899.0104.0
Oct 24@PHI116–12742-9011-3421-282217104.5115.5110.5
Oct 23CHI125–13246-9219-4614-261911113.6120.0110.0
Oct 21@WAS116–12841-9115-4119-231613112.6123.1103.5
Apr 12@PHI106–12639-9013-4715-22179101.9121.2104.0
Apr 10BKN125–10845-8124-4811-16177130.2112.596.0
Apr 8@DET111–13736-8617-5022-281313119.4145.793.5
Apr 7@BKN90–9635-8115-455-819996.8103.293.0
Apr 5MEM131–11550-8316-3215-242010129.7112.7101.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
64%
pregame chance the forecast gave CLE, the winner
CLE was the forecast favorite
20 pts
margin miss
forecast −5, actual −25 for MIL
87th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
26th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.44 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statCLEMIL
Final score136111
Field goals52–100 · 52.0%41–100 · 41.0%
Three-pointers20–46 · 43.5%17–51 · 33.3%
Free throws12–18 · 66.7%12–18 · 66.7%
Rebounds5645
Assists4133
Turnovers1113
Steals85
Blocks44

How the model does with these teams over time: Cleveland Cavaliers · Milwaukee Bucks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MIL)−5−25−20
Total points237247+10
CLE points121136+15
MIL points116111−5

Recent form before this game

Cleveland Cavaliers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 29 at ATL L 111–114
Oct 28 vs WAS W 121–111
Oct 26 vs MIN W 127–125
Oct 24 vs BKN W 125–121
Oct 22 at PHI L 106–114

Milwaukee Bucks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 vs HOU L 100–132
Oct 26 vs IND W 110–102
Oct 24 at PHI L 116–127
Oct 23 vs CHI L 125–132
Oct 21 at WAS L 116–128

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 17 2025-26 CLE at MIL CLE 123 – 116 MIL
Feb 25 2025-26 CLE at MIL CLE 116 – 118 MIL
Nov 17 2025-26 MIL at CLE MIL 106 – 118 CLE
Oct 26 2025-26 MIL at CLE MIL 113 – 118 CLE
Mar 9 2024-25 CLE at MIL CLE 112 – 100 MIL