The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Feb 23

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves

Friday, February 23, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

MIL 1–1@MIN 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIL 27 percent, MIN 73 percent. MIL Bucks 27% proj. 106 · final 112 MIN Timberwolves · home 73% proj. 116 · final 107
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIL Milwaukee Bucks 106 112 +6
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves (home) 116 107 −9

Forecast: Minnesota Timberwolves to win, 73% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputMILMIN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15311670
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +208
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +3.2+7.3
Games played this season 5655
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 112.0121.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 113.8106.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 97.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 13.50.0
Rest days 55
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIL1531MIN1670

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIL1531

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1556 → started this one at 1542
  2. First 46 games: +57.5
  3. Last 10 games: −68.0
  • L@DEN107–113−5.4
  • L@POR116–119−9.5
  • W@DAL129–117+9.1
  • L@UTA108–123−14.5
  • L@PHX106–114−7.0
  • LMIN105–129−20.6
  • WCHA120–84+3.9
  • WDEN112–95+13.5
  • LMIA97–123−30.6
  • L@MEM110–113−6.9

MIN1670

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1504 → started this one at 1503
  2. First 45 games: +112.1
  3. Last 10 games: +54.4
  • L@SAS112–113−7.9
  • W@OKC107–101+10.7
  • WDAL121–87+8.6
  • LORL106–108−8.7
  • WHOU111–90+6.5
  • L@CHI123–129−10.1
  • W@MIL129–105+20.6
  • W@LAC121–100+23.2
  • W@POR121–109+3.7
  • W@POR128–91+7.8
Season scoring marginMIL+3.2MIN+7.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIL+3.2

Scores 122.0, allows 118.8 over 56 games: +3.2 a game.

MIN+7.3

Scores 114.0, allows 106.7 over 55 games: +7.3 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MIL112.0MIN121.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.3).

MIL112.0scored, −3.3 vs league

FactorMILLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.4%54.9%+0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)11.1%11.6%+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)18.8%24.2%−2.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1680.201−0.9
Everything else−1.2

MIN121.1scored, +5.8 vs league

FactorMINLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.7%54.9%+5.7
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%11.6%−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.4%24.2%+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2120.201+0.3
Everything else−0.6
Defensive rating, last 10MIL113.8MIN106.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.3).

MIL113.8allowed, −1.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.6%54.9%−1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%11.6%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.2%24.2%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1880.201+0.4
Everything else+0.4

MIN106.3allowed, −9.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.4%54.9%+6.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%11.6%+1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.0%24.2%+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2200.201−0.5
Everything else+0.9
Pace, last 10average 97.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIL 99.3 and MIN 96.5 → average 97.9 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingMIL13.5MIN0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIL13.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Khris Middleton13.527.64

Source: official injury report, 2024-02-23 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

MIN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-02-23 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestMIL5 daysMIN5 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIL5days

Last played Feb 15 against MEM (8 days, capped at 5).

MIN5days

Last played Feb 15 against POR (8 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Feb 15@MEM110–11342-9011-4415-201311108.9113.0100.5
Feb 13MIA97–12337-8313-3910-1118596.0121.8101.0
Feb 12DEN112–9542-8416-3412-18129115.596.997.5
Feb 9CHA120–8441-9418-5220-24510121.284.899.0
Feb 8MIN105–12940-8114-3311-161310116.7141.890.5
Feb 6@PHX106–11439-9013-4015-251210105.0111.8101.5
Feb 4@UTA108–12339-8415-4115-25117108.0123.0100.0
Feb 3@DAL129–11750-8812-3017-25115122.9110.4105.5
Jan 31@POR116–11945-9213-4513-181310118.4121.498.0
Jan 29@DEN107–11336-8416-4019-25127107.0113.0100.0

MIN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Feb 15@POR128–9146-8911-3025-271311125.589.2102.0
Feb 13@POR121–10939-8413-3330-341212121.0110.199.5
Feb 12@LAC121–10046-8611-3418-19119127.4104.295.5
Feb 8@MIL129–10548-8721-4112-16812141.8116.790.5
Feb 6@CHI123–12942-9220-4519-261310118.3121.795.1
Feb 4HOU111–9040-9011-3020-271511107.889.1102.0
Feb 2ORL106–10838-8212-3818-20176106.0106.9100.5
Jan 31DAL121–8745-8013-3018-30109127.492.694.5
Jan 29@OKC107–10140-8314-2913-15139113.8109.893.0
Jan 27@SAS112–11345-7914-268-15137121.7122.892.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
27%
pregame chance the forecast gave MIL, the winner
the forecast favored MIN
15 pts
margin miss
forecast +10, actual −5 for MIN
16th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
358th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 1.32 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMILMIN
Final score112107
Field goals41–87 · 47.1%43–98 · 43.9%
Three-pointers13–37 · 35.1%13–35 · 37.1%
Free throws17–25 · 68.0%8–13 · 61.5%
Rebounds4752
Assists2423
Turnovers1013
Steals108
Blocks44

How the model does with these teams over time: Milwaukee Bucks · Minnesota Timberwolves

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MIN)+10−5−15
Total points222219−3
MIL points106112+6
MIN points116107−9

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
MIL31203625–112
MIN27301337–107

Recent form before this game

Milwaukee Bucks

DateOpponentResult
Feb 15 at MEM L 110–113
Feb 13 vs MIA L 97–123
Feb 12 vs DEN W 112–95
Feb 9 vs CHA W 120–84
Feb 8 vs MIN L 105–129

Minnesota Timberwolves

DateOpponentResult
Feb 15 at POR W 128–91
Feb 13 at POR W 121–109
Feb 12 at LAC W 121–100
Feb 8 at MIL W 129–105
Feb 6 at CHI L 123–129

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 8 2023-24 MIN at MIL MIN 129 – 105 MIL
Dec 30 2022-23 MIN at MIL MIN 114 – 123 MIL
Nov 4 2022-23 MIL at MIN MIL 115 – 102 MIN
Mar 19 2021-22 MIL at MIN MIL 119 – 138 MIN
Oct 27 2021-22 MIN at MIL MIN 113 – 108 MIL