2023-24 · Regular Season · Final
Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks
Friday, April 5, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded
TOR 0–4@MIL 2–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOR Toronto Raptors | 105 | 117 | +12 |
| MIL Milwaukee Bucks (home) | 115 | 111 | −4 |
Forecast: Milwaukee Bucks to win, 73% win probability, projected margin 10.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | TOR | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1293 | 1550 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +328 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −6.4 | +3.2 |
| Games played this season | 76 | 76 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 101.7 | 117.5 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 123.1 | 113.5 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 98.4 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 1.3 | 35.9 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingTOR1293MIL1550
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
TOR1293
- Ended last season at 1564 → started this one at 1548
- First 66 games: −174.1
- Last 10 games: −81.1
- LORL103–113−7.8
- L@ORL96–111−4.8
- LSAC89–123−14.3
- LOKC103–123−6.6
- L@WAS109–112−5.4
- LBKN88–96−8.7
- LNYK101–145−13.4
- LPHI120–135−10.0
- LLAL111–128−6.6
- L@MIN85–133−3.5
MIL1550
- Ended last season at 1556 → started this one at 1542
- First 66 games: +18.0
- Last 10 games: −9.6
- WPHI114–105+4.4
- WPHX140–129+8.8
- L@BOS119–122−1.8
- WBKN115–108+3.2
- WOKC118–93+18.1
- LLAL124–128−9.3
- L@NOP100–107−5.4
- W@ATL122–113+9.0
- L@WAS113–117−12.6
- LMEM101–111−24.0
Season scoring marginTOR−6.4MIL+3.2
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
TOR−6.4
Scores 112.3, allows 118.7 over 76 games: −6.4 a game.
MIL+3.2
Scores 120.0, allows 116.8 over 76 games: +3.2 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10TOR101.7MIL117.5
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.7).
TOR101.7scored, −13.0 vs league
| Factor | TOR | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 51.1% | 54.8% | −5.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 15.4% | 11.5% | −5.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 17.4% | 24.1% | −3.0 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.159 | 0.195 | −1.0 | |
| Everything else | +2.1 |
MIL117.5scored, +2.8 vs league
| Factor | MIL | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 57.2% | 54.8% | +3.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.3% | 11.5% | +0.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 22.6% | 24.1% | −0.7 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.157 | 0.195 | −1.1 | |
| Everything else | +0.5 |
Defensive rating, last 10TOR123.1MIL113.5
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.7).
TOR123.1allowed, +8.4 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 60.1% | 54.8% | −8.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.6% | 11.5% | +1.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 39.3% | 24.1% | −6.8 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.153 | 0.195 | +1.2 | |
| Everything else | +3.8 |
MIL113.5allowed, −1.1 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.1% | 54.8% | +2.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.8% | 11.5% | −2.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 22.6% | 24.1% | +0.7 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.191 | 0.195 | +0.1 | |
| Everything else | +0.2 |
Pace, last 10average 98.4
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
TOR 99.0 and MIL 97.7 → average 98.4 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.2)
Rotation points missingTOR1.3MIL35.9
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
TOR1.3pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jontay Porter | 1.3 | 17.3 | 3 |
Source: official injury report, 2024-04-05 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.
MIL35.9pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 29.9 | 37.2 | 8 |
| Patrick Beverley | 6.0 | 25.8 | 3 |
Source: official injury report, 2024-04-05 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
RestTOR2 daysMIL2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
TOR2days
Last played Apr 3 against MIN.
MIL2days
Last played Apr 3 against MEM.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
TOR
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3 | @MIN | 85–133 | 33-90 | 7-30 | 12-14 | 20 | 1 | 81.0 | 127.9 | 104.5 |
| Apr 2 | LAL | 111–128 | 43-89 | 10-32 | 15-21 | 17 | 4 | 105.7 | 120.8 | 105.5 |
| Mar 31 | PHI | 120–135 | 47-90 | 11-30 | 15-20 | 12 | 3 | 123.7 | 137.8 | 97.5 |
| Mar 27 | NYK | 101–145 | 39-84 | 11-31 | 12-13 | 18 | 7 | 108.6 | 155.9 | 93.0 |
| Mar 25 | BKN | 88–96 | 37-85 | 5-27 | 9-12 | 10 | 5 | 96.7 | 105.5 | 91.0 |
| Mar 23 | @WAS | 109–112 | 40-94 | 8-33 | 21-26 | 12 | 12 | 106.9 | 112.0 | 101.0 |
| Mar 22 | OKC | 103–123 | 40-76 | 11-30 | 12-17 | 27 | 3 | 99.0 | 117.1 | 104.5 |
| Mar 20 | SAC | 89–123 | 33-80 | 10-31 | 13-18 | 21 | 11 | 90.8 | 124.2 | 98.5 |
| Mar 17 | @ORL | 96–111 | 37-84 | 8-31 | 14-15 | 18 | 11 | 98.0 | 114.4 | 97.5 |
| Mar 15 | ORL | 103–113 | 38-81 | 14-34 | 13-20 | 15 | 9 | 106.2 | 115.3 | 97.5 |
MIL
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3 | MEM | 101–111 | 38-95 | 18-44 | 7-12 | 11 | 11 | 108.6 | 118.1 | 93.5 |
| Apr 2 | @WAS | 113–117 | 45-103 | 11-48 | 12-18 | 12 | 15 | 109.7 | 111.4 | 104.0 |
| Mar 30 | @ATL | 122–113 | 43-78 | 8-28 | 28-35 | 10 | 5 | 124.5 | 114.1 | 98.5 |
| Mar 28 | @NOP | 100–107 | 38-82 | 14-39 | 10-19 | 14 | 4 | 103.1 | 108.1 | 98.0 |
| Mar 26 | LAL | 124–128 | 49-119 | 15-51 | 11-17 | 14 | 15 | 100.0 | 104.1 | 102.2 |
| Mar 24 | OKC | 118–93 | 49-92 | 11-34 | 9-14 | 16 | 14 | 121.6 | 93.0 | 98.5 |
| Mar 21 | BKN | 115–108 | 43-91 | 16-41 | 13-15 | 10 | 7 | 119.8 | 112.5 | 96.0 |
| Mar 20 | @BOS | 119–122 | 45-84 | 17-35 | 12-14 | 14 | 9 | 124.0 | 128.4 | 95.5 |
| Mar 17 | PHX | 140–129 | 51-94 | 24-41 | 14-14 | 10 | 10 | 137.3 | 127.7 | 101.5 |
| Mar 14 | PHI | 114–105 | 39-72 | 16-36 | 20-24 | 14 | 6 | 126.7 | 118.0 | 89.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2023-24 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | TOR | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 117 | 111 |
| Field goals | 36–79 · 45.6% | 41–94 · 43.6% |
| Three-pointers | 14–36 · 38.9% | 12–42 · 28.6% |
| Free throws | 31–36 · 86.1% | 17–21 · 81.0% |
| Rebounds | 47 | 45 |
| Assists | 24 | 21 |
| Turnovers | 16 | 13 |
| Steals | 9 | 8 |
| Blocks | 3 | 6 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Toronto Raptors · Milwaukee Bucks
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (MIL) | +10 | −6 | −16 |
| Total points | 220 | 228 | +8 |
| TOR points | 105 | 117 | +12 |
| MIL points | 115 | 111 | −4 |
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 21 | 37 | 32 | 27 | – | 117 |
| MIL | 27 | 27 | 31 | 26 | – | 111 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 15 2023-24 | MIL at TOR | MIL 128 – 112 TOR |
| Nov 1 2023-24 | MIL at TOR | MIL 111 – 130 TOR |
| Apr 9 2022-23 | MIL at TOR | MIL 105 – 121 TOR |
| Mar 19 2022-23 | TOR at MIL | TOR 111 – 118 MIL |
| Jan 17 2022-23 | TOR at MIL | TOR 122 – 130 MIL |