The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 26

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks

Monday, October 26, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

IND 2–1@MIL 0–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: IND 44 percent, MIL 56 percent. IND Pacers 44% proj. 118 · final 102 MIL Bucks · home 56% proj. 120 · final 110
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
IND Indiana Pacers 118 102 −16
MIL Milwaukee Bucks (home) 120 110 −10

Forecast: Milwaukee Bucks to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans MIL

  • Home court+2.1 MILWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Recent form+0.7 INDLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: MIL scores 114.0 and allows 122.1; IND scores 112.8 and allows 114.1.

Together: MIL by 2, a 56% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

MIL is 0–3, losing by 10 a game on average (scoring 119, allowing 129). Last season they were a −6 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 15.2% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting +4, offensive rebounding +1.6. Their defense forces turnovers on 9.5% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense −3.0, free throws allowed −1.2.

IND is 2–1, winning by 5 a game on average (scoring 121, allowing 117). Last season they were a −8 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 17% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting +2.0, ball security −1.4. Their defense lets opponents rebound 31% of their misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 2.2 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense +1.3, forcing turnovers −1.0. Ivica Zubac (9 ppg) is out. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors MIL; left favors IND.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Recent form −0.7, Player availability +0.3, No playoff context +0.3, Team strength −0.1, Rest and schedule +0.1, giving +1.9 for MIL. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Recent form −0.7 Player availability +0.3 No playoff context +0.3 Team strength −0.1 Rest and schedule +0.1 Projected margin +1.9
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +1.9. The 56% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputINDMILEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13861356 −0.2
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +40 −0.6
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −6.1−6.8 +0.8
Games played this season 33 −0.1
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 112.8114.0 +0.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 114.1122.1 −1.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.6 +0.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 9.00.0 +0.3
Rest days 12 +0.0
Second night of a back-to-back YesNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueMIL ptsIND ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)122.1+0.44+2.61−2.17
Season scoring margin (away)-6.1+0.85−0.71+1.56
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.69−0.14+0.83
Season scoring margin (home)-6.8−0.47+0.25−0.72
Combined pace, last 10101.6+3.31+2.61+0.70
Elo rating (home)1355.6−0.13+0.54−0.67
Games played (away)3.0+0.16+0.80−0.64
Elo gap incl. home court39.5−0.88−0.28−0.60
Rotation points missing (away)9.0−0.04+0.53−0.56
Games played (home)3.0+0.59+0.09+0.50
Elo rating (away)1386.2+0.30−0.17+0.47
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)114.1+0.34−0.14+0.47
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)112.8−0.09−0.34+0.26
Home series wins0.0+0.27+0.04+0.23
Rest days (away)1.0+0.05+0.00+0.05
Back-to-back (home)0+0.04−0.01+0.04
Series pressure0.0+0.03−0.00+0.03
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)114.0−0.03−0.06+0.03
Rest days (home)2.0+0.01+0.01−0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)1±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingIND1386MIL13560.8 pts toward IND

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

IND1386

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1332 → started this one at 1374
  2. This season's 3 games: +11.9
  • W@NOP123–120+8.2
  • LDAL105–121−17.8
  • W@BKN136–109+21.5

MIL1356

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1344 → started this one at 1383
  2. This season's 3 games: −27.2
  • L@WAS116–128−13.1
  • LCHI125–132−10.7
  • L@PHI116–127−3.4
Season scoring marginIND−6.1MIL−6.80.7 pts toward MIL

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

IND−6.1

Scores 121.3, allows 116.7 over 3 games: +4.7 a game.

15% this season (+4.7) + 85% last season (−8.0) = −6.1

MIL−6.8

Scores 119.0, allows 129.0 over 3 games: −10.0 a game.

15% this season (−10.0) + 85% last season (−6.2) = −6.8

Offensive rating, last 10IND112.8MIL114.00.3 pts toward MIL

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

IND112.8scored, −1.8 vs league

FactorINDLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.9%54.5%+2.0
Turnovers (TOV%)13.2%12.2%−1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)17.5%26.1%−3.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1920.210−0.5
Everything else+2.0

MIL114.0scored, −0.6 vs league

FactorMILLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.3%54.5%+4.2
Turnovers (TOV%)15.2%12.2%−4.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.6%26.1%+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1650.210−1.3
Everything else−0.8
Defensive rating, last 10IND114.1MIL122.11.7 pts toward IND

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

IND114.1allowed, −0.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.7%54.5%+1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.2%−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.0%26.1%−2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2040.210+0.2
Everything else+2.3

MIL122.1allowed, +7.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.5%54.5%−3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)9.5%12.2%−3.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.7%26.1%+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2530.210−1.2
Everything else−0.1
Pace, last 10average 101.60.7 pts toward MIL

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

IND 103.3 and MIL 99.9 → average 101.6 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingIND9.0MIL0.00.3 pts toward MIL

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

IND9.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Ivica Zubac9.021.43

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

MIL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestIND1 daysMIL2 days0.1 pts toward MIL

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

IND1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 25 against BKN.

MIL2days

Last played Oct 24 against PHI.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

IND

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 25@BKN136–10949-8521-4317-22144129.5103.8105.0
Oct 23DAL105–12139-887-3220-281913105.0121.0100.0
Oct 21@NOP123–12047-909-3020-29139117.1114.3105.0
Apr 12DET121–13341-9023-5416-20164115.2127.9104.5
Apr 10PHI94–10533-8814-5014-1621789.5101.0104.5
Apr 9@BKN123–9451-988-3113-18118118.390.4104.0
Apr 7MIN104–12435-739-2625-31224101.0119.2103.5
Apr 5@CLE108–11733-8617-4425-29107109.1118.299.0
Apr 3@CHA108–12943-9315-367-101110109.1130.399.0
Apr 1@CHI145–12658-10220-489-10136134.3114.5109.0

MIL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 24@PHI116–12742-9011-3421-282217104.5115.5110.5
Oct 23CHI125–13246-9219-4614-261911113.6120.0110.0
Oct 21@WAS116–12841-9115-4119-231613112.6123.1103.5
Apr 12@PHI106–12639-9013-4715-22179101.9121.2104.0
Apr 10BKN125–10845-8124-4811-16177130.2112.596.0
Apr 8@DET111–13736-8617-5022-281313119.4145.793.5
Apr 7@BKN90–9635-8115-455-819996.8103.293.0
Apr 5MEM131–11550-8316-3215-242010129.7112.7101.5
Apr 3BOS101–13335-8321-4710-13138109.8141.593.0
Apr 1@HOU113–11942-8917-4012-161513121.5125.394.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
56%
pregame chance the forecast gave MIL, the winner
MIL was the forecast favorite
6 pts
margin miss
forecast +2, actual +8 for MIL
61st
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
94th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.58 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statINDMIL
Final score102110
Field goals39–96 · 40.6%41–95 · 43.2%
Three-pointers13–48 · 27.1%13–44 · 29.5%
Free throws11–18 · 61.1%15–21 · 71.4%
Rebounds4861
Assists2727
Turnovers1311
Steals56
Blocks85

How the model does with these teams over time: Indiana Pacers · Milwaukee Bucks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MIL)+2+8+6
Total points238212−26
IND points118102−16
MIL points120110−10

Recent form before this game

Indiana Pacers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 25 at BKN W 136–109
Oct 23 vs DAL L 105–121
Oct 21 at NOP W 123–120
Apr 12 vs DET L 121–133
Apr 10 vs PHI L 94–105

Milwaukee Bucks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 24 at PHI L 116–127
Oct 23 vs CHI L 125–132
Oct 21 at WAS L 116–128
Apr 12 at PHI L 106–126
Apr 10 vs BKN W 125–108

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 15 2025-26 IND at MIL IND 123 – 134 MIL
Feb 6 2025-26 IND at MIL IND 99 – 105 MIL
Dec 23 2025-26 MIL at IND MIL 111 – 94 IND
Nov 3 2025-26 MIL at IND MIL 117 – 115 IND
Apr 29 2024-25 MIL at IND MIL 118 – 119 IND