The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 21

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards

Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

MIL 0–0@WAS 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIL 41 percent, WAS 59 percent. MIL Bucks 41% proj. 121 · final 116 WAS Wizards · home 59% proj. 124 · final 128
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIL Milwaukee Bucks 121 116 −5
WAS Washington Wizards (home) 124 128 +4

Forecast: Washington Wizards to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans WAS

  • Home court+2.1 WASWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Recent form+4.7 WASLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: WAS scores 109.6 and allows 127.0; MIL scores 113.1 and allows 120.8.
  • Team strength+3.5 MILElo WAS 1280, MIL 1383; season margin WAS −12.0, MIL −6.2.

Together: WAS by 3, a 59% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

WAS hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a −12 team. Their offense rebounds 15% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −1.5, getting to the line −1.3. Their defense lets opponents shoot 62% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 11 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −2.5, free throws allowed −1.1.

MIL hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a −6 team. Their offense shoots 58% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −5, getting to the line −1.7. Their defense lets opponents shoot 58% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −2.8, defensive rebounding +1.2.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors WAS; left favors MIL.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Recent form +4.7, Team strength −3.5, No playoff context +0.2, Rest and schedule +0.2, Player availability +0.1, giving +3.8 for WAS. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Recent form +4.7 Team strength −3.5 No playoff context +0.2 Rest and schedule +0.2 Player availability +0.1 Projected margin +3.8
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +3.8. The 59% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputMILWASEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13831280 −0.3
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −33 −2.3
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −6.2−12.0 +0.1
Games played this season 00 −1.0
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 113.1109.6 −0.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 120.8127.0 +4.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.0 +0.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.1
Rest days 55 +0.1
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueWAS ptsMIL ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)127.0+4.65+2.06+2.60
Elo gap incl. home court-33.0−1.21+1.11−2.33
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)120.8+1.50+0.02+1.48
Season scoring margin (away)-6.2+0.92−0.55+1.47
Season scoring margin (home)-12.0−0.90+0.47−1.36
Games played (away)0.0+0.25+1.18−0.93
Elo rating (home)1279.8−0.12+0.70−0.82
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.70−0.11+0.81
Combined pace, last 10101.0+3.22+2.44+0.78
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.18+0.53−0.71
Elo rating (away)1382.8+0.38−0.18+0.56
Rest days (home)5.0+0.21−0.09+0.30
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)109.6−0.28−0.09−0.18
Home series wins0.0+0.27+0.09+0.18
Rest days (away)5.0−0.23−0.06−0.17
Games played (home)0.0+0.83+0.93−0.09
Series pressure0.0+0.04±0.00+0.04
Back-to-back (home)0+0.03−0.01+0.03
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)113.1−0.15−0.15+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIL1383WAS12802.6 pts toward MIL

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIL1383

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1344 → started this one at 1383
  2. No games played yet this season.

WAS1280

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1206 → started this one at 1280
  2. No games played yet this season.
Season scoring marginMIL−6.2WAS−12.00.9 pts toward MIL

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIL−6.2

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (−6.2) = −6.2

WAS−12.0

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (−12.0) = −12.0

Offensive rating, last 10MIL113.1WAS109.60.2 pts toward MIL

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIL113.1scored, −1.5 vs league

FactorMILLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.9%54.5%+5.0
Turnovers (TOV%)15.6%12.2%−4.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.2%26.1%+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1510.210−1.7
Everything else−0.1

WAS109.6scored, −5.0 vs league

FactorWASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.5%54.5%−1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%12.2%+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)15.0%26.1%−5.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1660.210−1.3
Everything else+2.6
Defensive rating, last 10MIL120.8WAS127.04.1 pts toward WAS

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIL120.8allowed, +6.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.6%54.5%−4.7
Turnovers (TOV%)10.2%12.2%−2.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.4%26.1%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2280.210−0.5
Everything else+0.6

WAS127.0allowed, +12.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)62.0%54.5%−11.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.2%+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.6%26.1%−2.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2460.210−1.1
Everything else+2.3
Pace, last 10average 101.00.8 pts toward WAS

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIL 98.3 and WAS 103.8 → average 101.0 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMIL0.0WAS0.00.1 pts toward WAS

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

WAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestMIL5 daysWAS5 days0.2 pts toward WAS

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIL5days

Last played Apr 12 against PHI (192 days, capped at 5).

WAS5days

Last played Apr 12 against CLE (192 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 12@PHI106–12639-9013-4715-22179101.9121.2104.0
Apr 10BKN125–10845-8124-4811-16177130.2112.596.0
Apr 8@DET111–13736-8617-5022-281313119.4145.793.5
Apr 7@BKN90–9635-8115-455-819996.8103.293.0
Apr 5MEM131–11550-8316-3215-242010129.7112.7101.5
Apr 3BOS101–13335-8321-4710-13138109.8141.593.0
Apr 1@HOU113–11942-8917-4012-161513121.5125.394.0
Mar 31DAL123–9941-9220-5421-261612111.890.8109.5
Mar 29LAC113–12740-7720-4413-15224111.9125.7101.0
Mar 28SAS95–12738-8714-465-618897.9129.697.5

WAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 12@CLE117–13042-9018-4115-19125117.0128.7100.5
Apr 10MIA117–14046-9214-3111-14134113.6135.9103.0
Apr 9CHI108–11938-9610-3822-271710100.9111.2107.0
Apr 7CHI98–12937-8611-3813-2121389.9119.4108.5
Apr 5@BKN115–12144-799-2518-28204116.2122.299.0
Apr 4@MIA136–15250-10617-4019-24913125.9142.1107.5
Apr 1PHI131–15350-9616-4015-17117124.8147.1104.5
Mar 30@LAL101–12041-937-3512-1695101.0117.6101.0
Mar 29@POR88–12332-875-2219-2215285.4119.4103.0
Mar 27@GSW126–13150-9518-428-10113121.2126.0104.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
59%
pregame chance the forecast gave WAS, the winner
WAS was the forecast favorite
9 pts
margin miss
forecast +3, actual +12 for WAS
70th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
67th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.53 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMILWAS
Final score116128
Field goals41–91 · 45.1%45–86 · 52.3%
Three-pointers15–41 · 36.6%6–28 · 21.4%
Free throws19–23 · 82.6%32–41 · 78.0%
Rebounds4144
Assists2828
Turnovers1611
Steals511
Blocks27

How the model does with these teams over time: Milwaukee Bucks · Washington Wizards

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (WAS)+3+12+9
Total points245244−1
MIL points121116−5
WAS points124128+4

Recent form before this game

Milwaukee Bucks

DateOpponentResult
Apr 12 at PHI L 106–126
Apr 10 vs BKN W 125–108
Apr 8 at DET L 111–137
Apr 7 at BKN L 90–96
Apr 5 vs MEM W 131–115

Washington Wizards

DateOpponentResult
Apr 12 at CLE L 117–130
Apr 10 vs MIA L 117–140
Apr 9 vs CHI L 108–119
Apr 7 vs CHI L 98–129
Apr 5 at BKN L 115–121

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 29 2025-26 MIL at WAS MIL 99 – 109 WAS
Dec 31 2025-26 WAS at MIL WAS 114 – 113 MIL
Dec 1 2025-26 MIL at WAS MIL 126 – 129 WAS
Oct 22 2025-26 WAS at MIL WAS 120 – 133 MIL
Feb 21 2024-25 MIL at WAS MIL 104 – 101 WAS