2025-26 · Playoffs · Final
Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers
Friday, May 15, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET
DET 2–4@CLE 1–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET Detroit Pistons | 102 | 115 | +13 |
| CLE Cleveland Cavaliers (home) | 107 | 94 | −13 |
Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 64% win probability, projected margin 5.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | DET | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1662 | 1624 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +32 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +7.4 | +3.7 |
| Games played this season | 93 | 94 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 110.0 | 113.8 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 109.3 | 114.6 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 95.3 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
| Playoff series state | 3 home series wins, elimination game | |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingDET1662CLE1624
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
DET1662
- Ended last season at 1543 → started this one at 1532
- First 83 games: +142.8
- Last 10 games: −12.7
- L@ORL105–113−10.8
- L@ORL88–94−8.5
- WORL116–109+4.4
- W@ORL93–79+11.9
- WORL116–94+7.9
- WCLE111–101+5.7
- WCLE107–97+5.4
- L@CLE109–116−9.2
- L@CLE103–112−10.0
- LCLE113–117−9.5
CLE1624
- Ended last season at 1687 → started this one at 1641
- First 84 games: −17.6
- Last 10 games: +0.9
- L@TOR104–126−18.5
- L@TOR89–93−5.8
- WTOR125–120+4.5
- L@TOR110–112−4.4
- WTOR114–102+7.5
- L@DET101–111−5.7
- L@DET97–107−5.4
- WDET116–109+9.2
- WDET112–103+10.0
- W@DET117–113+9.5
Season scoring marginDET+7.4CLE+3.7
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
DET+7.4
Scores 116.1, allows 108.7 over 93 games: +7.4 a game.
CLE+3.7
Scores 118.4, allows 114.7 over 94 games: +3.7 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10DET110.0CLE113.8
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).
DET
Couldn't be rebuilt exactly from the stored box scores.
CLE
Couldn't be rebuilt exactly from the stored box scores.
Defensive rating, last 10DET109.3CLE114.6
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).
DET
Couldn't be rebuilt exactly from the stored box scores.
CLE
Couldn't be rebuilt exactly from the stored box scores.
Pace, last 10average 95.3
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
Couldn't be rebuilt exactly from the stored box scores.
Rotation points missingDET0.0CLE0.0
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
DET0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2026-05-15 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.
CLE0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2026-05-15 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.
RestDET2 daysCLE2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
DET2days
Last played May 13 against CLE.
CLE2days
Last played May 13 against DET.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
DET
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13 | CLE | 113–117 | 42-95 | 11-33 | 18-20 | 10 | 15 | 116.5 | 118.2 | 88.8 |
| May 11 | @CLE | 103–112 | 42-83 | 10-23 | 9-12 | 18 | 11 | 110.8 | 120.4 | 93.0 |
| May 9 | @CLE | 109–116 | 41-91 | 9-25 | 18-22 | 15 | 17 | 114.7 | 119.6 | 96.0 |
| May 7 | CLE | 107–97 | 39-80 | 14-28 | 15-20 | 10 | 12 | 118.9 | 107.8 | 90.0 |
| May 5 | CLE | 111–101 | 37-84 | 10-26 | 27-35 | 11 | 16 | 116.8 | 106.3 | 95.0 |
| May 3 | ORL | 116–94 | 41-80 | 16-33 | 18-22 | 13 | 11 | 126.1 | 102.2 | 92.0 |
| May 1 | @ORL | 93–79 | 32-80 | 9-27 | 20-26 | 10 | 14 | 105.7 | 89.8 | 88.0 |
| Apr 29 | ORL | 116–109 | 39-80 | 10-28 | 28-35 | 17 | 16 | 120.8 | 111.2 | 97.0 |
| Apr 27 | @ORL | 88–94 | 31-82 | 6-30 | 20-28 | 20 | 12 | 89.8 | 94.9 | 98.5 |
| Apr 25 | @ORL | 105–113 | 37-85 | 11-32 | 20-24 | 16 | 10 | 109.4 | 117.7 | 96.0 |
CLE
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13 | @DET | 117–113 | 36-80 | 14-35 | 31-38 | 16 | 13 | 118.2 | 116.5 | 88.8 |
| May 11 | DET | 112–103 | 34-78 | 14-41 | 30-34 | 13 | 12 | 120.4 | 110.8 | 93.0 |
| May 9 | DET | 116–109 | 43-74 | 12-32 | 18-28 | 15 | 5 | 119.6 | 114.7 | 96.0 |
| May 7 | @DET | 97–107 | 34-81 | 7-32 | 22-27 | 11 | 9 | 107.8 | 118.9 | 90.0 |
| May 5 | @DET | 101–111 | 36-80 | 14-38 | 15-16 | 19 | 11 | 106.3 | 116.8 | 95.0 |
| May 3 | TOR | 114–102 | 38-85 | 11-39 | 27-37 | 16 | 20 | 116.3 | 104.1 | 98.0 |
| May 1 | @TOR | 110–112 | 40-93 | 11-41 | 19-27 | 18 | 19 | 107.8 | 110.9 | 91.9 |
| Apr 29 | TOR | 125–120 | 43-81 | 18-36 | 21-28 | 14 | 4 | 122.5 | 118.8 | 101.5 |
| Apr 26 | @TOR | 89–93 | 32-87 | 10-40 | 15-23 | 17 | 16 | 91.8 | 94.9 | 97.5 |
| Apr 23 | @TOR | 104–126 | 36-81 | 14-45 | 18-23 | 20 | 16 | 108.3 | 132.6 | 95.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | DET | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 115 | 94 |
| Field goals | 43–82 · 52.4% | 30–77 · 39.0% |
| Three-pointers | 16–36 · 44.4% | 12–35 · 34.3% |
| Free throws | 13–19 · 68.4% | 22–30 · 73.3% |
| Rebounds | 43 | 40 |
| Assists | 25 | 15 |
| Turnovers | 17 | 20 |
| Steals | 9 | 9 |
| Blocks | 6 | 3 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Detroit Pistons · Cleveland Cavaliers
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (CLE) | +5 | −21 | −26 |
| Total points | 209 | 209 | ±0 |
| DET points | 102 | 115 | +13 |
| CLE points | 107 | 94 | −13 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| May 13 2025-26 | CLE at DET | CLE 117 – 113 DET |
| May 11 2025-26 | DET at CLE | DET 103 – 112 CLE |
| May 9 2025-26 | DET at CLE | DET 109 – 116 CLE |
| May 7 2025-26 | CLE at DET | CLE 97 – 107 DET |
| May 5 2025-26 | CLE at DET | CLE 101 – 111 DET |