2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Utah Jazz at Cleveland Cavaliers
Monday, January 12, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET
UTA 5–2@CLE 1–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTA Utah Jazz | 114 | 123 | +9 |
| CLE Cleveland Cavaliers (home) | 125 | 112 | −13 |
Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 78% win probability, projected margin 11.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | UTA | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1354 | 1562 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +278 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −8.3 | +2.4 |
| Games played this season | 38 | 40 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 114.2 | 118.7 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 124.5 | 114.2 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 102.3 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 0.0 | 6.8 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingUTA1354CLE1562
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
UTA1354
- Ended last season at 1284 → started this one at 1338
- First 28 games: +44.5
- Last 10 games: −28.2
- LMEM128–137−8.1
- WDET131–129+8.5
- W@SAS127–114+28.4
- LBOS119–129−6.2
- L@LAC101–118−6.1
- L@GSW114–123−3.5
- L@POR117–137−8.5
- L@OKC125–129−1.0
- WDAL116–114+4.3
- LCHA95–150−36.0
CLE1562
- Ended last season at 1687 → started this one at 1641
- First 30 games: −115.8
- Last 10 games: +37.3
- WNOP141–118+6.5
- L@NYK124–126−2.7
- L@HOU100–117−7.1
- W@SAS113–101+18.7
- WPHX129–113+11.6
- WDEN113–108+7.2
- LDET110–114−6.7
- W@IND120–116+3.6
- L@MIN122–131−5.6
- WMIN146–134+11.8
Season scoring marginUTA−8.3CLE+2.4
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
UTA−8.3
Scores 119.0, allows 127.3 over 38 games: −8.3 a game.
CLE+2.4
Scores 120.0, allows 117.6 over 40 games: +2.4 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10UTA114.2CLE118.7
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).
UTA114.2scored, −0.6 vs league
| Factor | UTA | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.9% | 54.5% | +0.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.0% | 12.3% | −1.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.211 | 0.215 | −0.1 | |
| Everything else | −0.2 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
CLE118.7scored, +3.9 vs league
| Factor | CLE | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 58.0% | 54.5% | +5.3 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.3% | 12.3% | +0.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.174 | 0.215 | −1.2 | |
| Everything else | −0.2 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Defensive rating, last 10UTA124.5CLE114.2
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).
UTA124.5allowed, +9.7 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 58.4% | 54.5% | −6.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.3% | 12.3% | −1.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.212 | 0.215 | +0.1 | |
| Everything else | −2.5 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
CLE114.2allowed, −0.6 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.8% | 54.5% | −0.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.2% | 12.3% | −0.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.184 | 0.215 | +0.9 | |
| Everything else | +0.3 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Pace, last 10average 102.3
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
UTA 101.8 and CLE 102.9 → average 102.3 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.6)
Rotation points missingUTA0.0CLE6.8
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
UTA0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2026-01-12 17:30 ET. 13 rotation players.
CLE6.8pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dean Wade | 6.8 | 21.4 | 6 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-01-12 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
RestUTA2 daysCLE2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
UTA2days
Last played Jan 10 against CHA.
CLE2days
Last played Jan 10 against MIN.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
UTA
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10 | CHA | 95–150 | 36-88 | 7-31 | 16-21 | 15 | – | 93.1 | 148.5 | 101.5 |
| Jan 8 | DAL | 116–114 | 47-95 | 13-41 | 9-14 | 9 | – | 113.7 | 111.8 | 102.0 |
| Jan 7 | @OKC | 125–129 | 49-111 | 11-41 | 16-21 | 20 | – | 106.8 | 109.3 | 106.4 |
| Jan 5 | @POR | 117–137 | 45-92 | 13-31 | 14-17 | 15 | – | 115.8 | 135.6 | 101.0 |
| Jan 3 | @GSW | 114–123 | 45-86 | 13-35 | 11-17 | 15 | – | 118.8 | 125.5 | 97.0 |
| Jan 1 | @LAC | 101–118 | 36-78 | 6-27 | 23-30 | 18 | – | 103.1 | 120.4 | 98.0 |
| Dec 30 | BOS | 119–129 | 41-87 | 16-42 | 21-25 | 13 | – | 117.8 | 127.7 | 101.0 |
| Dec 27 | @SAS | 127–114 | 45-83 | 17-37 | 20-26 | 15 | – | 127.0 | 115.2 | 99.5 |
| Dec 26 | DET | 131–129 | 44-90 | 18-38 | 25-26 | 17 | – | 124.8 | 121.7 | 105.5 |
| Dec 23 | MEM | 128–137 | 40-90 | 16-45 | 32-36 | 13 | – | 120.8 | 129.2 | 106.0 |
CLE
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10 | MIN | 146–134 | 55-92 | 15-31 | 21-25 | 9 | – | 141.7 | 130.1 | 103.0 |
| Jan 8 | @MIN | 122–131 | 48-91 | 11-33 | 15-21 | 12 | – | 117.3 | 124.8 | 104.5 |
| Jan 6 | @IND | 120–116 | 49-88 | 10-26 | 12-18 | 19 | – | 115.4 | 110.5 | 104.5 |
| Jan 4 | DET | 110–114 | 35-80 | 14-42 | 26-30 | 17 | – | 108.9 | 112.9 | 101.0 |
| Jan 2 | DEN | 113–108 | 43-86 | 16-39 | 11-19 | 16 | – | 117.7 | 110.2 | 97.0 |
| Dec 31 | PHX | 129–113 | 48-96 | 15-38 | 18-22 | 14 | – | 124.0 | 106.6 | 105.0 |
| Dec 29 | @SAS | 113–101 | 41-96 | 13-42 | 18-20 | 12 | – | 105.6 | 93.5 | 107.5 |
| Dec 27 | @HOU | 100–117 | 41-96 | 11-36 | 7-11 | 14 | – | 104.2 | 119.4 | 97.0 |
| Dec 25 | @NYK | 124–126 | 45-86 | 15-34 | 19-23 | 14 | – | 120.4 | 122.3 | 103.0 |
| Dec 23 | NOP | 141–118 | 56-105 | 20-49 | 9-11 | 13 | – | 131.8 | 111.3 | 106.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | UTA | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 123 | 112 |
| Field goals | 40–83 · 48.2% | 41–92 · 44.6% |
| Three-pointers | 18–41 · 43.9% | 17–41 · 41.5% |
| Free throws | 25–28 · 89.3% | 13–13 · 100.0% |
| Rebounds | 50 | 30 |
| Assists | 32 | 33 |
| Turnovers | 16 | 13 |
| Steals | 7 | 10 |
| Blocks | 4 | 6 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Utah Jazz · Cleveland Cavaliers
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (CLE) | +11 | −11 | −22 |
| Total points | 239 | 235 | −4 |
| UTA points | 114 | 123 | +9 |
| CLE points | 125 | 112 | −13 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 23 2024-25 | CLE at UTA | CLE 120 – 91 UTA |
| Dec 23 2024-25 | UTA at CLE | UTA 113 – 124 CLE |
| Apr 2 2023-24 | CLE at UTA | CLE 129 – 113 UTA |
| Dec 20 2023-24 | UTA at CLE | UTA 116 – 124 CLE |
| Jan 10 2022-23 | CLE at UTA | CLE 114 – 116 UTA |