2023-24 · Regular Season · Final
Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers
Thursday, February 22, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded
ORL 0–0@CLE 2–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORL Orlando Magic | 107 | 116 | +9 |
| CLE Cleveland Cavaliers (home) | 116 | 109 | −7 |
Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 9.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | ORL | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1511 | 1666 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +225 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +0.9 | +5.7 |
| Games played this season | 55 | 53 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 116.9 | 121.6 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 113.1 | 108.8 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 97.1 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 8.4 | 0.0 |
| Rest days | 5 | 5 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingORL1511CLE1666
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
ORL1511
- Ended last season at 1447 → started this one at 1460
- First 45 games: +22.6
- Last 10 games: +28.5
- WPHX113–98+14.2
- L@DAL129–131−4.3
- W@SAS108–98+6.6
- W@MIN108–106+8.7
- W@DET111–99+5.1
- L@MIA95–121−16.8
- WSAS127–111+4.0
- WCHI114–108+5.7
- LOKC113–127−11.6
- WNYK118–100+16.9
CLE1666
- Ended last season at 1565 → started this one at 1549
- First 43 games: +73.0
- Last 10 games: +44.1
- WLAC118–108+9.6
- WDET128–121+0.9
- W@MEM108–101+5.5
- W@SAS117–101+4.2
- WSAC136–110+9.6
- W@WAS114–106+2.6
- W@BKN118–95+10.4
- W@TOR119–95+9.5
- LPHI121–123−10.1
- WCHI108–105+1.9
Season scoring marginORL+0.9CLE+5.7
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
ORL+0.9
Scores 111.7, allows 110.9 over 55 games: +0.9 a game.
CLE+5.7
Scores 114.9, allows 109.2 over 53 games: +5.7 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10ORL116.9CLE121.6
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.3).
ORL116.9scored, +1.7 vs league
| Factor | ORL | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 57.0% | 54.9% | +3.2 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.3% | 11.5% | −1.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 26.4% | 24.3% | +1.0 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.196 | 0.202 | −0.2 | |
| Everything else | −1.3 |
CLE121.6scored, +6.3 vs league
| Factor | CLE | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 58.6% | 54.9% | +5.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.2% | 11.5% | +1.9 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 23.3% | 24.3% | −0.4 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.178 | 0.202 | −0.7 | |
| Everything else | +0.0 |
Defensive rating, last 10ORL113.1CLE108.8
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.3).
ORL113.1allowed, −2.2 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.5% | 54.9% | −2.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.4% | 11.5% | +2.7 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 20.4% | 24.3% | +1.7 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.225 | 0.202 | −0.7 | |
| Everything else | +0.8 |
CLE108.8allowed, −6.5 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 52.5% | 54.9% | +3.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.6% | 11.5% | +0.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 22.1% | 24.3% | +1.0 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.159 | 0.202 | +1.2 | |
| Everything else | +0.5 |
Pace, last 10average 97.1
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
ORL 96.4 and CLE 97.8 → average 97.1 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.7)
Rotation points missingORL8.4CLE0.0
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
ORL8.4pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Markelle Fultz | 8.4 | 23.9 | 8 |
Source: official injury report, 2024-02-22 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
CLE0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2024-02-22 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
RestORL5 daysCLE5 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
ORL5days
Last played Feb 14 against NYK (8 days, capped at 5).
CLE5days
Last played Feb 14 against CHI (8 days, capped at 5).
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
ORL
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14 | NYK | 118–100 | 48-76 | 12-26 | 10-11 | 12 | 7 | 137.2 | 117.6 | 85.5 |
| Feb 13 | OKC | 113–127 | 41-91 | 11-36 | 20-25 | 16 | 14 | 109.7 | 123.3 | 103.0 |
| Feb 10 | CHI | 114–108 | 41-88 | 13-39 | 19-26 | 15 | 13 | 118.8 | 114.9 | 86.0 |
| Feb 8 | SAS | 127–111 | 49-82 | 16-27 | 13-20 | 16 | 8 | 129.6 | 112.1 | 98.5 |
| Feb 6 | @MIA | 95–121 | 35-80 | 10-35 | 15-21 | 18 | 8 | 97.9 | 123.5 | 97.5 |
| Feb 4 | @DET | 111–99 | 45-84 | 10-24 | 11-15 | 10 | 7 | 116.8 | 105.3 | 94.5 |
| Feb 2 | @MIN | 108–106 | 39-85 | 9-25 | 21-26 | 13 | 10 | 106.9 | 106.0 | 100.5 |
| Jan 31 | @SAS | 108–98 | 41-86 | 7-20 | 19-23 | 15 | 12 | 106.9 | 96.1 | 101.5 |
| Jan 29 | @DAL | 129–131 | 45-88 | 18-38 | 21-28 | 11 | 12 | 130.3 | 132.3 | 99.0 |
| Jan 28 | PHX | 113–98 | 41-92 | 12-36 | 19-26 | 7 | 11 | 115.3 | 100.0 | 98.0 |
CLE
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14 | CHI | 108–105 | 40-83 | 12-37 | 16-21 | 8 | 6 | 113.7 | 109.4 | 95.5 |
| Feb 12 | PHI | 121–123 | 44-92 | 13-37 | 20-25 | 10 | 15 | 126.0 | 128.1 | 96.0 |
| Feb 10 | @TOR | 119–95 | 48-92 | 14-41 | 9-13 | 10 | 14 | 129.3 | 101.1 | 93.0 |
| Feb 8 | @BKN | 118–95 | 43-80 | 15-37 | 17-17 | 15 | 7 | 121.6 | 97.9 | 97.0 |
| Feb 7 | @WAS | 114–106 | 43-88 | 12-35 | 16-22 | 14 | 7 | 111.8 | 103.9 | 102.0 |
| Feb 5 | SAC | 136–110 | 51-88 | 23-41 | 11-17 | 8 | 5 | 137.4 | 112.2 | 98.5 |
| Feb 3 | @SAS | 117–101 | 46-97 | 13-44 | 12-13 | 9 | 10 | 115.8 | 100.0 | 101.0 |
| Feb 1 | @MEM | 108–101 | 41-86 | 14-35 | 12-18 | 14 | 10 | 108.0 | 102.0 | 99.5 |
| Jan 31 | DET | 128–121 | 47-89 | 12-35 | 22-23 | 9 | 10 | 130.6 | 122.2 | 98.5 |
| Jan 29 | LAC | 118–108 | 42-86 | 13-40 | 21-26 | 13 | 11 | 121.6 | 111.3 | 97.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2023-24 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | ORL | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 116 | 109 |
| Field goals | 43–84 · 51.2% | 39–70 · 55.7% |
| Three-pointers | 14–25 · 56.0% | 10–22 · 45.5% |
| Free throws | 16–18 · 88.9% | 21–26 · 80.8% |
| Rebounds | 33 | 33 |
| Assists | 26 | 31 |
| Turnovers | 13 | 17 |
| Steals | 8 | 8 |
| Blocks | 3 | 5 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Orlando Magic · Cleveland Cavaliers
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (CLE) | +9 | −7 | −16 |
| Total points | 223 | 225 | +2 |
| ORL points | 107 | 116 | +9 |
| CLE points | 116 | 109 | −7 |
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL | 29 | 25 | 32 | 30 | – | 116 |
| CLE | 24 | 26 | 32 | 27 | – | 109 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 22 2023-24 | CLE at ORL | CLE 126 – 99 ORL |
| Dec 11 2023-24 | CLE at ORL | CLE 94 – 104 ORL |
| Dec 6 2023-24 | ORL at CLE | ORL 111 – 121 CLE |
| Apr 6 2022-23 | CLE at ORL | CLE 118 – 94 ORL |
| Apr 4 2022-23 | CLE at ORL | CLE 117 – 113 ORL |