2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers

Friday, November 6, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

PHI 8–1@CLE 4–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
PHI Philadelphia 76ers	117	95	−22
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers (home)	116	119	+3

Forecast: Philadelphia 76ers to win, 54% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	PHI	CLE
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1579	1568
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+59
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+1.9	+2.5
Games played this season	9	8
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	111.1	112.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	109.5	116.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	7.8
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPHI1579CLE1568

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

PHI1579

Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1524
This season's 9 games: +55.1

W@NYK106–100+16.0
WCLE114–106+7.9
WMIL127–116+3.4
LDET93–106−11.9
W@IND114–109+4.9
WNYK98–93+8.9
W@CHA109–104+8.6
WCHI126–107+4.5
W@DET112–106+12.8

CLE1568

Ended last season at 1598 → started this one at 1574
This season's 8 games: −6.2

L@PHI106–114−7.9
WBKN125–121+1.3
WMIN127–125+4.3
WWAS121–111+2.0
L@ATL111–114−4.7
W@MIL136–111+10.3
LOKC112–117−6.9
L@OKC116–124−4.6

Season scoring marginPHI+1.9CLE+2.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

PHI+1.9

Scores 111.0, allows 105.2 over 9 games: +5.8 a game.

45% this season (+5.8) + 55% last season (−1.3) = +1.9

CLE+2.5

Scores 119.2, allows 117.1 over 8 games: +2.1 a game.

40% this season (+2.1) + 60% last season (+2.8) = +2.5

Offensive rating, last 10PHI111.1CLE112.8

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

PHI111.1scored, −1.0 vs league

Factor	PHI	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.1%	53.3%	−1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.8%	13.3%	+3.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.8%	27.1%	−2.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.224	0.226	−0.1
Everything else			+0.1

CLE112.8scored, +0.7 vs league

Factor	CLE	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.5%	53.3%	+1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.8%	13.3%	+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.2%	27.1%	−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.209	0.226	−0.5
Everything else			+0.0

Defensive rating, last 10PHI109.5CLE116.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

PHI109.5allowed, −2.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.9%	53.3%	+2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.4%	13.3%	+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.1%	27.1%	−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.217	0.226	+0.3
Everything else			+0.7

CLE116.4allowed, +4.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.9%	53.3%	−0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.0%	13.3%	−3.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.0%	27.1%	+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.204	0.226	+0.6
Everything else			−0.7

Pace, last 10average 100.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

PHI 100.0 and CLE 101.3 → average 100.7 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.5)

Rotation points missingPHI0.0CLE7.8

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

PHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET. 8 rotation players.

CLE7.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jaylon Tyson	7.8	20.7	5

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestPHI2 daysCLE2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

PHI2days

Last played Nov 4 against DET.

CLE2days

Last played Nov 4 against OKC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

PHI

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 4	@DET	112–106	39-86	9-24	25-28	12	9	109.8	105.0	101.5
Nov 2	CHI	126–107	48-91	11-31	19-27	14	13	124.8	107.0	100.5
Oct 31	@CHA	109–104	40-86	14-35	15-23	8	13	119.8	115.6	90.5
Oct 30	NYK	98–93	37-75	12-34	12-16	14	5	108.9	103.3	90.0
Oct 28	@IND	114–109	40-87	13-36	21-24	16	10	110.7	106.9	102.5
Oct 25	DET	93–106	36-90	7-27	14-23	10	9	97.9	110.4	95.5
Oct 24	MIL	127–116	40-98	19-44	28-34	11	11	115.5	104.5	110.5
Oct 22	CLE	114–106	42-92	7-28	23-30	16	9	103.6	97.2	109.5
Oct 20	@NYK	106–100	37-89	11-40	21-27	10	6	103.9	98.0	102.0
May 10	NYK	114–144	43-86	8-35	20-28	9	7	116.3	146.9	98.0

CLE

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 4	@OKC	116–124	40-93	19-49	17-19	12	10	113.7	120.4	102.5
Nov 2	OKC	112–117	40-90	18-49	14-24	7	11	116.7	120.6	96.5
Oct 31	@MIL	136–111	52-100	20-46	12-18	11	14	129.5	105.7	105.0
Oct 29	@ATL	111–114	38-87	13-42	22-29	9	9	113.3	116.3	98.0
Oct 28	WAS	121–111	43-91	14-38	21-22	13	15	127.4	119.4	94.0
Oct 26	MIN	127–125	46-102	18-45	17-23	12	13	112.4	112.6	101.4
Oct 24	BKN	125–121	40-79	16-38	29-38	23	9	116.8	113.1	107.0
Oct 22	@PHI	106–114	39-87	7-29	21-28	21	10	97.2	103.6	109.5
May 25	NYK	93–130	32-77	11-40	18-22	22	6	91.2	127.5	102.0
May 23	NYK	108–121	42-84	12-41	12-19	17	9	110.2	124.7	97.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

46%

pregame chance the forecast gave CLE, the winner

the forecast favored PHI

25 pts

margin miss

forecast −1, actual +24 for CLE

42nd

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

16th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.77 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	PHI	CLE
Final score	95	119
Field goals	31–85 · 36.5%	40–88 · 45.5%
Three-pointers	10–40 · 25.0%	13–37 · 35.1%
Free throws	23–29 · 79.3%	26–34 · 76.5%
Rebounds	42	56
Assists	20	25
Turnovers	15	15
Steals	8	11
Blocks	4	2

How the model does with these teams over time: Philadelphia 76ers · Cleveland Cavaliers

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (CLE)	−1	+24	+25
Total points	233	214	−19
PHI points	117	95	−22
CLE points	116	119	+3

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.