2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers
Wednesday, March 25, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET
MIA 4–3@CLE 1–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA Miami Heat | 120 | 120 | ±0 |
| CLE Cleveland Cavaliers (home) | 123 | 103 | −20 |
Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 3.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | MIA | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1531 | 1627 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +167 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +2.7 | +4.3 |
| Games played this season | 72 | 72 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 117.9 | 122.8 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 118.3 | 118.1 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 100.3 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 0.0 | 19.6 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | Yes |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingMIA1531CLE1627
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
MIA1531
- Ended last season at 1462 → started this one at 1472
- First 62 games: +71.5
- Last 10 games: −12.6
- WBKN126–110+3.2
- W@CHA128–120+15.3
- WDET121–110+11.7
- WWAS150–129+2.6
- WMIL112–105+2.6
- LORL117–121−8.5
- L@CHA106–136−13.5
- LLAL126–134−10.4
- L@HOU122–123−2.9
- LSAS111–136−12.7
CLE1627
- Ended last season at 1687 → started this one at 1641
- First 62 games: −2.4
- Last 10 games: −10.9
- WDET113–109+5.6
- LBOS98–109−14.2
- WPHI115–101+4.9
- L@ORL122–128−8.1
- W@DAL138–105+10.3
- LDAL120–130−25.4
- W@MIL123–116+4.3
- W@CHI115–110+3.4
- W@NOP111–106+4.8
- WORL136–131+3.5
Season scoring marginMIA+2.7CLE+4.3
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
MIA+2.7
Scores 120.2, allows 117.5 over 72 games: +2.7 a game.
CLE+4.3
Scores 119.2, allows 114.9 over 72 games: +4.3 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10MIA117.9CLE122.8
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).
MIA117.9scored, +3.3 vs league
| Factor | MIA | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.6% | 54.5% | −1.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.7% | 12.2% | +3.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.1% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.253 | 0.210 | +1.3 | |
| Everything else | −0.1 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 2 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
CLE122.8scored, +8.1 vs league
| Factor | CLE | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 57.8% | 54.5% | +4.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.7% | 12.2% | +3.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.1% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.215 | 0.210 | +0.2 | |
| Everything else | −0.5 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 2 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Defensive rating, last 10MIA118.3CLE118.1
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).
MIA118.3allowed, +3.7 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.5% | 54.5% | −3.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.9% | 12.2% | +0.9 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.1% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.225 | 0.210 | −0.4 | |
| Everything else | −1.2 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 2 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
CLE118.1allowed, +3.5 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.0% | 54.5% | −0.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.4% | 12.2% | −2.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.1% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.234 | 0.210 | −0.7 | |
| Everything else | +0.4 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 2 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Pace, last 10average 100.3
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
MIA 103.5 and CLE 97.0 → average 100.3 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)
Rotation points missingMIA0.0CLE19.6
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
MIA0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2026-03-25 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.
CLE19.6pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylon Tyson | 10.4 | 21.7 | 7 |
| Max Strus | 9.2 | 24.2 | 5 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-03-25 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
RestMIA2 daysCLE1 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
MIA2days
Last played Mar 23 against SAS.
CLE1day, back-to-back
Last played Mar 24 against ORL.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
MIA
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23 | SAS | 111–136 | 38-95 | 16-52 | 19-20 | 12 | 7 | 103.7 | 127.1 | 107.0 |
| Mar 21 | @HOU | 122–123 | 47-92 | 16-41 | 12-16 | 9 | 11 | 128.4 | 130.9 | 94.5 |
| Mar 19 | LAL | 126–134 | 48-94 | 12-38 | 18-22 | 11 | 12 | 122.3 | 128.8 | 103.5 |
| Mar 17 | @CHA | 106–136 | 36-89 | 7-36 | 27-34 | 15 | 12 | 101.0 | 128.3 | 105.5 |
| Mar 14 | ORL | 117–121 | 41-88 | 12-38 | 23-28 | 10 | 7 | 111.4 | 115.2 | 105.0 |
| Mar 12 | MIL | 112–105 | 38-92 | 14-41 | 22-27 | 11 | 15 | 109.8 | 104.0 | 101.5 |
| Mar 10 | WAS | 150–129 | 45-90 | 13-43 | 47-59 | 16 | 15 | 126.1 | 108.4 | 119.0 |
| Mar 8 | DET | 121–110 | 43-93 | 12-33 | 23-25 | 11 | – | 123.5 | 113.4 | 97.5 |
| Mar 6 | @CHA | 128–120 | 45-97 | 18-38 | 20-25 | 6 | – | 129.3 | 120.0 | 99.5 |
| Mar 5 | BKN | 126–110 | 48-91 | 9-27 | 21-24 | 12 | 12 | 123.5 | 106.8 | 102.5 |
CLE
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24 | ORL | 136–131 | 49-81 | 12-30 | 26-29 | 8 | 6 | 141.7 | 136.5 | 96.0 |
| Mar 21 | @NOP | 111–106 | 42-88 | 12-39 | 15-22 | 13 | 14 | 116.8 | 111.6 | 95.0 |
| Mar 19 | @CHI | 115–110 | 40-91 | 14-41 | 21-31 | 14 | 16 | 112.7 | 106.8 | 102.5 |
| Mar 17 | @MIL | 123–116 | 42-86 | 12-36 | 27-34 | 6 | 10 | 129.5 | 120.8 | 95.5 |
| Mar 15 | DAL | 120–130 | 45-88 | 16-41 | 14-21 | 16 | 10 | 116.5 | 127.5 | 102.5 |
| Mar 13 | @DAL | 138–105 | 56-91 | 18-38 | 8-13 | 14 | 9 | 135.3 | 104.0 | 101.5 |
| Mar 11 | @ORL | 122–128 | 44-89 | 17-44 | 17-26 | 9 | 12 | 128.4 | 133.3 | 95.5 |
| Mar 9 | PHI | 115–101 | 38-84 | 16-44 | 23-25 | 9 | – | 121.1 | 108.6 | 94.0 |
| Mar 8 | BOS | 98–109 | 35-86 | 13-45 | 15-21 | 7 | – | 105.4 | 117.2 | 93.0 |
| Mar 3 | DET | 113–109 | 38-86 | 17-46 | 20-26 | 10 | 11 | 120.2 | 114.7 | 94.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | MIA | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 120 | 103 |
| Field goals | 42–81 · 51.9% | 35–81 · 43.2% |
| Three-pointers | 18–45 · 40.0% | 12–37 · 32.4% |
| Free throws | 18–22 · 81.8% | 21–24 · 87.5% |
| Rebounds | 40 | 40 |
| Assists | 31 | 26 |
| Turnovers | 12 | 14 |
| Steals | 11 | 4 |
| Blocks | 3 | 1 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Miami Heat · Cleveland Cavaliers
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (CLE) | +3 | −17 | −20 |
| Total points | 243 | 223 | −20 |
| MIA points | 120 | 120 | ±0 |
| CLE points | 123 | 103 | −20 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 2025-26 | CLE at MIA | CLE 130 – 116 MIA |
| Nov 10 2025-26 | CLE at MIA | CLE 138 – 140 MIA |
| Apr 28 2024-25 | CLE at MIA | CLE 138 – 83 MIA |
| Apr 26 2024-25 | CLE at MIA | CLE 124 – 87 MIA |
| Apr 23 2024-25 | MIA at CLE | MIA 112 – 121 CLE |