2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Cleveland Cavaliers at Los Angeles Clippers

Monday, November 7, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

CLE 1–0@LAC 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers	110	117	+7
LAC Los Angeles Clippers (home)	100	119	+19

Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CLE	LAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1579	1481
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−28
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+6.7	−2.1
Games played this season	9	10
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	116.2	103.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	103.4	106.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	25.3
Rest days	1	1
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCLE1579LAC1481

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CLE1579

Ended last season at 1495 → started this one at 1496
This season's 9 games: +82.5

L@TOR105–108−3.4
W@CHI128–96+26.0
WWAS117–107+5.8
WORL103–92+3.8
W@BOS132–123+16.8
WNYK121–108+8.4
WBOS114–113+4.1
W@DET112–88+11.8
W@LAL114–100+9.2

LAC1481

Ended last season at 1527 → started this one at 1521
This season's 10 games: −39.9

W@LAL103–97+7.2
W@SAC111–109+3.8
LPHX95–112−16.4
L@OKC94–108−17.1
L@OKC110–118−10.8
LNOP91–112−17.5
WHOU95–93+2.0
W@HOU109–101+7.2
W@SAS113–106+10.6
LUTA102–110−8.9

Season scoring marginCLE+6.7LAC−2.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CLE+6.7

Scores 116.2, allows 103.9 over 9 games: +12.3 a game.

45% this season (+12.3) + 55% last season (+2.1) = +6.7

LAC−2.1

Scores 102.3, allows 106.6 over 10 games: −4.3 a game.

50% this season (−4.3) + 50% last season (+0.0) = −2.1

Offensive rating, last 10CLE116.2LAC103.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 111.3).

CLE116.2scored, +4.9 vs league

Factor	CLE	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.0%	53.4%	+4.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.4%	12.6%	+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.9%	23.8%	+0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.224	0.207	+0.5
Everything else			+0.1

LAC103.0scored, −8.3 vs league

Factor	LAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.3%	53.4%	−0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.5%	12.6%	−2.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	18.1%	23.8%	−2.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.167	0.207	−1.1
Everything else			−1.7

Defensive rating, last 10CLE103.4LAC106.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 111.3).

CLE103.4allowed, −7.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.4%	53.4%	+4.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.4%	12.6%	+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.6%	23.8%	+1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.208	0.207	−0.0
Everything else			+0.5

LAC106.9allowed, −4.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.8%	53.4%	+3.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	12.6%	−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.3%	23.8%	+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.166	0.207	+1.2
Everything else			+1.0

Pace, last 10average 99.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CLE 98.4 and LAC 99.6 → average 99.0 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.2)

Rotation points missingCLE0.0LAC25.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CLE0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-07 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

LAC25.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
John Wall	12.8	22.2	8
Kawhi Leonard	12.5	21.0	2

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-07 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestCLE1 daysLAC1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CLE1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 6 against LAL.

LAC1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 6 against UTA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CLE

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 6	@LAL	114–100	37-84	8-32	32-36	12	9	112.9	99.0	101.0
Nov 4	@DET	112–88	44-81	11-26	13-16	18	10	116.7	91.7	96.0
Nov 2	BOS	114–113	42-100	11-39	19-24	11	9	103.6	102.7	99.6
Oct 30	NYK	121–108	41-89	23-50	16-19	14	10	122.2	110.2	98.5
Oct 28	@BOS	132–123	45-87	16-35	26-34	15	9	121.1	112.8	98.7
Oct 26	ORL	103–92	36-87	10-33	21-30	12	12	107.3	94.8	96.5
Oct 23	WAS	117–107	41-96	13-33	22-25	13	16	113.6	105.9	92.4
Oct 22	@CHI	128–96	48-85	16-27	16-18	17	8	130.6	98.0	98.0
Oct 19	@TOR	105–108	38-77	10-28	19-23	17	6	106.1	109.1	99.0
Apr 10	MIL	133–115	51-94	19-38	12-17	10	10	127.9	109.5	104.5

LAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 6	UTA	102–110	43-87	8-33	8-13	13	4	103.0	111.1	99.0
Nov 4	@SAS	113–106	42-80	15-33	14-19	16	3	111.9	106.0	100.5
Nov 2	@HOU	109–101	41-84	12-33	15-19	14	9	111.2	102.0	98.5
Oct 31	HOU	95–93	37-87	9-36	12-17	13	8	96.0	93.0	99.5
Oct 30	NOP	91–112	36-86	11-39	8-13	14	8	96.8	117.9	94.5
Oct 27	@OKC	110–118	44-82	9-28	13-18	19	10	111.1	118.0	99.5
Oct 25	@OKC	94–108	35-83	10-31	14-18	18	7	91.3	103.8	103.5
Oct 23	PHX	95–112	36-82	9-32	14-20	14	9	97.9	114.3	97.5
Oct 22	@SAC	111–109	41-81	9-22	20-22	13	5	112.1	111.2	98.5
Oct 20	@LAL	103–97	37-80	9-29	20-31	22	10	99.0	91.5	105.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

26%

pregame chance the forecast gave LAC, the winner

the forecast favored CLE

12 pts

margin miss

forecast −10, actual +2 for LAC

33rd

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

429th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 1.35 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CLE	LAC
Final score	117	119
Field goals	43–83 · 51.8%	40–79 · 50.6%
Three-pointers	16–33 · 48.5%	17–38 · 44.7%
Free throws	15–21 · 71.4%	22–28 · 78.6%
Rebounds	48	31
Assists	29	19
Turnovers	17	9
Steals	6	8
Blocks	2	2

How the model does with these teams over time: Cleveland Cavaliers · Los Angeles Clippers

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (LAC)	−10	+2	+12
Total points	210	236	+26
CLE points	110	117	+7
LAC points	100	119	+19

Recent form before this game