2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls

Saturday, October 22, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

CLE 0–0@CHI 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers	110	128	+18
CHI Chicago Bulls (home)	107	96	−11

Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 58% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CLE	CHI
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1493	1458
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+35
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+1.9	−0.8
Games played this season	1	2
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	113.2	102.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	115.0	112.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	3	1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCLE1493CHI1458

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CLE1493

Ended last season at 1495 → started this one at 1496
This season's 1 game: −3.4

L@TOR105–108−3.4

CHI1458

Ended last season at 1426 → started this one at 1444
This season's 2 games: +13.9

W@MIA116–108+17.8
L@WAS100–102−3.9

Season scoring marginCLE+1.9CHI−0.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CLE+1.9

Scores 105.0, allows 108.0 over 1 game: −3.0 a game.

5% this season (−3.0) + 95% last season (+2.1) = +1.9

CHI−0.8

Scores 108.0, allows 105.0 over 2 games: +3.0 a game.

10% this season (+3.0) + 90% last season (−1.2) = −0.8

Offensive rating, last 10CLE113.2CHI102.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2021-22: 111.4).

CLE113.2scored, +1.8 vs league

Factor	CLE	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.3%	53.3%	+3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.0%	11.8%	+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.9%	23.0%	−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.220	0.196	+0.7
Everything else			−2.5

CHI102.6scored, −8.8 vs league

Factor	CHI	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	49.7%	53.3%	−5.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.7%	11.8%	−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.8%	23.0%	−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.195	0.196	−0.0
Everything else			−0.7

Defensive rating, last 10CLE115.0CHI112.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2021-22: 111.4).

CLE115.0allowed, +3.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.5%	53.3%	−0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.6%	11.8%	−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.6%	23.0%	+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.241	0.196	−1.3
Everything else			−0.4

CHI112.5allowed, +1.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.4%	53.3%	−6.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.3%	11.8%	+2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.2%	23.0%	+1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.172	0.196	+0.7
Everything else			+0.7

Pace, last 10average 99.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CLE 97.8 and CHI 100.3 → average 99.1 (league 2021-22: 98.6)

Rotation points missingCLE0.0CHI0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CLE0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-10-22 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

CHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-10-22 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestCLE3 daysCHI1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CLE3days

Last played Oct 19 against TOR.

CHI1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 21 against WAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CLE

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 19	@TOR	105–108	38-77	10-28	19-23	17	6	106.1	109.1	99.0
Apr 10	MIL	133–115	51-94	19-38	12-17	10	10	127.9	109.5	104.5
Apr 8	@BKN	107–118	40-82	8-27	19-24	8	10	115.1	126.9	93.0
Apr 5	@ORL	115–120	42-86	16-36	15-22	11	9	116.2	121.2	99.0
Apr 3	PHI	108–112	35-78	15-33	23-31	9	7	109.1	113.1	99.0
Apr 2	@NYK	119–101	44-81	15-34	16-21	9	7	126.6	106.3	94.5
Mar 31	@ATL	107–131	39-90	7-30	22-28	14	15	105.9	131.0	100.5
Mar 30	DAL	112–120	42-83	11-25	17-22	13	9	117.9	126.3	95.0
Mar 28	ORL	107–101	37-83	13-41	20-23	13	6	105.9	101.0	100.5
Mar 26	CHI	94–98	34-82	7-31	19-27	13	15	101.1	105.4	93.0

CHI

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 21	@WAS	100–102	33-79	7-27	27-33	13	10	103.1	103.0	98.0
Oct 19	@MIA	116–108	41-93	13-36	21-28	14	12	110.5	102.9	105.0
Apr 27	@MIL	100–116	39-92	15-52	7-11	16	6	95.2	110.5	105.0
Apr 24	MIL	95–119	35-90	9-36	16-17	11	8	94.1	117.8	101.0
Apr 22	MIL	81–111	33-84	9-34	6-10	13	5	83.5	113.3	97.5
Apr 20	@MIL	114–110	44-89	12-25	14-15	12	6	112.9	107.8	101.5
Apr 17	@MIL	86–93	31-96	7-37	17-19	11	16	86.0	92.1	100.5
Apr 10	@MIN	124–120	44-83	10-21	26-33	21	16	120.4	116.5	103.0
Apr 8	CHA	117–133	44-82	13-24	16-20	12	6	124.5	140.0	94.5
Apr 6	BOS	94–117	35-80	7-23	17-23	17	7	95.9	120.6	97.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

58%

pregame chance the forecast gave CLE, the winner

CLE was the forecast favorite

29 pts

margin miss

forecast −3, actual −32 for CHI

686th

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

32nd

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 0.55 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CLE	CHI
Final score	128	96
Field goals	48–85 · 56.5%	34–84 · 40.5%
Three-pointers	16–27 · 59.3%	7–29 · 24.1%
Free throws	16–18 · 88.9%	21–25 · 84.0%
Rebounds	48	35
Assists	32	19
Turnovers	17	10
Steals	4	12
Blocks	5	7

How the model does with these teams over time: Cleveland Cavaliers · Chicago Bulls

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (CHI)	−3	−32	−29
Total points	217	224	+7
CLE points	110	128	+18
CHI points	107	96	−11

Recent form before this game