2024-25 · Playoffs · Final
Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers
Sunday, May 4, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded
IND 1–1@CLE 1–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND Indiana Pacers | 102 | 121 | +19 |
| CLE Cleveland Cavaliers (home) | 112 | 112 | ±0 |
Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 75% win probability, projected margin 10.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | IND | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1630 | 1722 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +163 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +2.5 | +10.5 |
| Games played this season | 85 | 86 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 114.2 | 122.7 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 110.1 | 108.1 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 98.4 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Rest days | 5 | 5 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
| Playoff series state | 0 home series wins | |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingIND1630CLE1722
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
IND1630
- Ended last season at 1603 → started this one at 1577
- First 75 games: +13.9
- Last 10 games: +38.8
- W@DEN125–120+8.3
- WWAS104–98+0.9
- WCLE114–112+5.3
- LORL115–129−21.3
- W@CLE126–118+15.8
- WMIL117–98+11.3
- WMIL123–115+5.9
- L@MIL101–117−13.0
- W@MIL129–103+23.3
- WMIL119–118+2.3
CLE1722
- Ended last season at 1523 → started this one at 1517
- First 76 games: +189.9
- Last 10 games: +15.2
- W@SAS114–113+1.5
- LSAC113–120−19.2
- WCHI135–113+6.1
- L@IND112–114−5.3
- W@NYK108–102+6.4
- LIND118–126−15.8
- WMIA121–100+5.5
- WMIA121–112+3.0
- W@MIA124–87+15.2
- W@MIA138–83+17.8
Season scoring marginIND+2.5CLE+10.5
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
IND+2.5
Scores 117.3, allows 114.8 over 85 games: +2.5 a game.
CLE+10.5
Scores 122.1, allows 111.6 over 86 games: +10.5 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10IND114.2CLE122.7
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).
IND114.2scored, +0.5 vs league
| Factor | IND | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.1% | 54.4% | −0.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.0% | 12.0% | +4.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 23.3% | 25.2% | −0.9 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.203 | 0.192 | +0.3 | |
| Everything else | −2.8 |
CLE122.7scored, +8.9 vs league
| Factor | CLE | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 58.8% | 54.4% | +6.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.0% | 12.0% | +1.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 26.6% | 25.2% | +0.6 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.165 | 0.192 | −0.8 | |
| Everything else | +1.0 |
Defensive rating, last 10IND110.1CLE108.1
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).
IND110.1allowed, −3.6 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.7% | 54.4% | +1.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.8% | 12.0% | −0.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 21.4% | 25.2% | +1.7 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.158 | 0.192 | +1.0 | |
| Everything else | +0.1 |
CLE108.1allowed, −5.6 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.2% | 54.4% | +1.8 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.6% | 12.0% | +0.8 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 25.2% | 25.2% | +0.0 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.150 | 0.192 | +1.2 | |
| Everything else | +1.8 |
Pace, last 10average 98.4
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
IND 99.8 and CLE 97.0 → average 98.4 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.4)
Rotation points missingIND0.0CLE0.0
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
IND0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2025-05-04 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.
CLE0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2025-05-04 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.
RestIND5 daysCLE5 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
IND5days
Last played Apr 29 against MIL.
CLE5days
Last played Apr 28 against MIA (6 days, capped at 5).
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
IND
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29 | MIL | 119–118 | 43-93 | 12-33 | 21-28 | 12 | 9 | 110.2 | 108.3 | 98.3 |
| Apr 27 | @MIL | 129–103 | 50-83 | 18-39 | 11-13 | 11 | 5 | 135.8 | 109.6 | 94.5 |
| Apr 25 | @MIL | 101–117 | 39-90 | 13-41 | 10-13 | 14 | 7 | 102.0 | 119.4 | 98.5 |
| Apr 22 | MIL | 123–115 | 44-90 | 16-36 | 19-19 | 8 | 7 | 123.0 | 118.6 | 98.5 |
| Apr 19 | MIL | 117–98 | 42-81 | 13-34 | 20-26 | 5 | 5 | 120.6 | 100.0 | 97.5 |
| Apr 13 | @CLE | 126–118 | 48-119 | 10-42 | 20-22 | 13 | 14 | 99.2 | 95.2 | 103.9 |
| Apr 11 | ORL | 115–129 | 40-89 | 12-29 | 23-35 | 17 | 17 | 108.5 | 122.9 | 105.5 |
| Apr 10 | CLE | 114–112 | 43-93 | 14-41 | 14-20 | 9 | 10 | 115.2 | 110.9 | 100.0 |
| Apr 8 | WAS | 104–98 | 33-87 | 9-35 | 29-37 | 7 | 13 | 108.3 | 102.1 | 96.0 |
| Apr 6 | @DEN | 125–120 | 46-96 | 15-44 | 18-21 | 6 | 7 | 119.0 | 114.3 | 105.0 |
CLE
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28 | @MIA | 138–83 | 47-86 | 22-47 | 22-25 | 11 | 6 | 142.3 | 84.7 | 97.5 |
| Apr 26 | @MIA | 124–87 | 46-86 | 15-40 | 17-20 | 9 | 13 | 136.3 | 94.6 | 91.5 |
| Apr 23 | MIA | 121–112 | 39-82 | 22-45 | 21-23 | 8 | 6 | 128.7 | 117.9 | 94.5 |
| Apr 20 | MIA | 121–100 | 45-88 | 18-43 | 13-16 | 7 | 14 | 137.5 | 114.9 | 87.5 |
| Apr 13 | IND | 118–126 | 44-115 | 18-60 | 12-22 | 21 | 15 | 95.2 | 99.2 | 103.9 |
| Apr 11 | @NYK | 108–102 | 38-77 | 11-31 | 21-30 | 15 | 13 | 114.9 | 109.7 | 93.5 |
| Apr 10 | @IND | 112–114 | 43-98 | 17-37 | 9-13 | 11 | 7 | 110.9 | 115.2 | 100.0 |
| Apr 8 | CHI | 135–113 | 51-100 | 25-50 | 8-13 | 12 | 16 | 132.4 | 108.7 | 103.0 |
| Apr 6 | SAC | 113–120 | 46-88 | 10-38 | 11-19 | 16 | 13 | 116.5 | 125.0 | 96.5 |
| Apr 4 | @SAS | 114–113 | 41-87 | 22-51 | 10-14 | 15 | 7 | 111.8 | 110.8 | 102.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2024-25 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | IND | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 121 | 112 |
| Field goals | 44–83 · 53.0% | 45–98 · 45.9% |
| Three-pointers | 19–36 · 52.8% | 9–38 · 23.7% |
| Free throws | 14–15 · 93.3% | 13–18 · 72.2% |
| Rebounds | 43 | 43 |
| Assists | 30 | 25 |
| Turnovers | 16 | 7 |
| Steals | 6 | 8 |
| Blocks | 9 | 1 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Indiana Pacers · Cleveland Cavaliers
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (CLE) | +10 | −9 | −19 |
| Total points | 214 | 233 | +19 |
| IND points | 102 | 121 | +19 |
| CLE points | 112 | 112 | ±0 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 13 2024-25 | IND at CLE | IND 126 – 118 CLE |
| Apr 10 2024-25 | CLE at IND | CLE 112 – 114 IND |
| Jan 14 2024-25 | CLE at IND | CLE 127 – 117 IND |
| Jan 12 2024-25 | IND at CLE | IND 108 – 93 CLE |
| Apr 12 2023-24 | IND at CLE | IND 120 – 129 CLE |