The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 26

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Minnesota Timberwolves at Cleveland Cavaliers

Monday, October 26, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

MIN 3–0@CLE 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIN 44 percent, CLE 56 percent. MIN Timberwolves 44% proj. 112 · final 125 CLE Cavaliers · home 56% proj. 114 · final 127
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves 112 125 +13
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers (home) 114 127 +13

Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans CLE

  • Home court+2.1 CLEWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+1.8 MINElo CLE 1567, MIN 1605; season margin CLE +2.3, MIN +5.3.
  • Recent form+0.6 CLELast 10 games, per 100 possessions: CLE scores 108.0 and allows 114.0; MIN scores 109.0 and allows 110.0.

Together: CLE by 2, a 56% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

CLE is 1–1, losing by 2 a game on average (scoring 116, allowing 118). Last season they were a +3 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 15.0% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −4, getting to the line +2.1. Their defense lets opponents rebound 28% of their misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 1.0 points per 100 possessions.

MIN is 3–0, winning by 23 a game on average (scoring 121, allowing 98). Last season they were a +2 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +1.5. Their defense holds opponents to 54% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 1.4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding +1.2, forcing turnovers +1.1. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors CLE; left favors MIN.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −1.8, Recent form +0.6, No playoff context +0.3, Player availability +0.2, Rest and schedule +0.1, giving +1.5 for CLE. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −1.8 Recent form +0.6 No playoff context +0.3 Player availability +0.2 Rest and schedule +0.1 Projected margin +1.5
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +1.5. The 56% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputMINCLEEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16051567 +0.4
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +32 −1.4
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +5.3+2.3 −0.4
Games played this season 32 −0.4
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 109.0108.0 +0.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 110.0114.0 −0.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.6 +0.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.2
Rest days 12 +0.0
Second night of a back-to-back YesNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueCLE ptsMIN ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court32.1−1.00+0.45−1.45
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.90−0.10+1.00
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)110.0−1.07−0.12−0.95
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)109.0±0.00−0.88+0.88
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.25+0.56−0.81
Combined pace, last 1099.5+0.22−0.50+0.72
Season scoring margin (away)5.4−0.50+0.17−0.66
Games played (away)3.0+0.23+0.81−0.58
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)108.0−0.68−0.26−0.41
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)114.0+0.10−0.29+0.39
Elo rating (home)1567.2+0.05−0.26+0.31
Season scoring margin (home)2.3+0.18−0.11+0.29
Home series wins0.0+0.30+0.07+0.24
Games played (home)2.0+0.62+0.41+0.21
Series pressure0.0+0.07+0.00+0.07
Elo rating (away)1605.0+0.03−0.02+0.05
Rest days (away)1.0+0.04+0.01+0.04
Back-to-back (home)0+0.02−0.01+0.03
Rest days (home)2.0+0.02+0.02+0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)1±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIN1605CLE15671.1 pts toward MIN

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIN1605

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1570 → started this one at 1553
  2. This season's 3 games: +52.3
  • W@MIA131–106+21.7
  • W@ORL115–93+19.0
  • WTOR117–94+11.6

CLE1567

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1598 → started this one at 1574
  2. This season's 2 games: −6.6
  • L@PHI106–114−7.9
  • WBKN125–121+1.3
Season scoring marginMIN+5.3CLE+2.30.7 pts toward MIN

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIN+5.3

Scores 121.0, allows 97.7 over 3 games: +23.3 a game.

15% this season (+23.3) + 85% last season (+2.2) = +5.3

CLE+2.3

Scores 115.5, allows 117.5 over 2 games: −2.0 a game.

10% this season (−2.0) + 90% last season (+2.8) = +2.3

Offensive rating, last 10MIN109.0CLE108.00.5 pts toward CLE

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIN109.0scored, −5.6 vs league

FactorMINLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.1%54.5%−6.6
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.2%+1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.4%26.1%+1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1910.210−0.6
Everything else−0.9

CLE108.0scored, −6.6 vs league

FactorCLELeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.9%54.5%−4.0
Turnovers (TOV%)15.0%12.2%−4.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.5%26.1%+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2820.210+2.1
Everything else−0.8
Defensive rating, last 10MIN110.0CLE114.00.6 pts toward MIN

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIN110.0allowed, −4.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.6%54.5%+1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.9%12.2%+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.4%26.1%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2300.210−0.6
Everything else+1.6

CLE114.0allowed, −0.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.5%54.5%+0.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.6%12.2%+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.4%26.1%−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2000.210+0.3
Everything else+0.6
Pace, last 10average 99.60.7 pts toward CLE

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIN 101.2 and CLE 97.9 → average 99.6 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMIN0.0CLE0.00.2 pts toward CLE

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

CLE0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestMIN1 daysCLE2 days0.1 pts toward CLE

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIN1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 25 against TOR.

CLE2days

Last played Oct 24 against BKN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 25TOR117–9443-7715-3116-25239118.295.998.5
Oct 23@ORL115–9342-9814-3717-301222113.992.1101.0
Oct 21@MIA131–10646-9821-5018-291417124.8100.0105.5
May 15SAS109–13940-10612-3417-2159103.8133.7104.5
May 12@SAS97–12632-839-3324-30131094.2122.3103.0
May 10SAS114–10942-9410-2720-221715115.2107.9100.0
May 8SAS108–11538-9914-4018-211215106.9113.9101.0
May 6@SAS95–13335-889-3016-31221286.4122.0109.5
May 4@SAS104–10241-9010-2612-211012108.3106.396.0
Apr 30DEN110–9843-947-2917-24719118.3105.493.0

CLE

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 24BKN125–12140-7916-3829-38239116.8113.1107.0
Oct 22@PHI106–11439-877-2921-28211097.2103.6109.5
May 25NYK93–13032-7711-4018-2222691.2127.5102.0
May 23NYK108–12142-8412-4112-19179110.2124.797.5
May 21@NYK93–10931-809-3522-32813104.5122.589.0
May 19@NYK104–11536-9016-5016-23191196.3105.598.3
May 17@DET125–9443-8511-3428-441114125.094.0100.0
May 15DET94–11530-7712-3522-302016100.0122.394.0
May 13@DET117–11336-8014-3531-381613118.2116.588.8
May 11DET112–10334-7814-4130-341312120.4110.893.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
56%
pregame chance the forecast gave CLE, the winner
CLE was the forecast favorite
0 pts
margin miss
forecast +2, actual +2 for CLE
61st
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
145th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.58 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMINCLE
Final score125127
Field goals49–102 · 48.0%46–102 · 45.1%
Three-pointers13–40 · 32.5%18–45 · 40.0%
Free throws14–23 · 60.9%17–23 · 73.9%
Rebounds5450
Assists2530
Turnovers1712
Steals710
Blocks79

How the model does with these teams over time: Minnesota Timberwolves · Cleveland Cavaliers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CLE)+2+2±0
Total points226252+26
MIN points112125+13
CLE points114127+13

Recent form before this game

Minnesota Timberwolves

DateOpponentResult
Oct 25 vs TOR W 117–94
Oct 23 at ORL W 115–93
Oct 21 at MIA W 131–106
May 15 vs SAS L 109–139
May 12 at SAS L 97–126

Cleveland Cavaliers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 24 vs BKN W 125–121
Oct 22 at PHI L 106–114
May 25 vs NYK L 93–130
May 23 vs NYK L 108–121
May 21 at NYK L 93–109

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 10 2025-26 MIN at CLE MIN 134 – 146 CLE
Jan 8 2025-26 CLE at MIN CLE 122 – 131 MIN
Feb 10 2024-25 MIN at CLE MIN 107 – 128 CLE
Jan 18 2024-25 CLE at MIN CLE 124 – 117 MIN
Mar 22 2023-24 CLE at MIN CLE 91 – 104 MIN