2023-24 · Regular Season · Final
Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers
Monday, February 12, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded
PHI 2–2@CLE 2–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI Philadelphia 76ers | 112 | 123 | +11 |
| CLE Cleveland Cavaliers (home) | 120 | 121 | +1 |
Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 8.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | PHI | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1478 | 1674 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +266 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +4.6 | +5.9 |
| Games played this season | 52 | 51 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 113.3 | 119.6 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 124.0 | 107.1 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 99.6 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 44.7 | 4.8 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingPHI1478CLE1674
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
PHI1478
- Ended last season at 1625 → started this one at 1593
- First 42 games: +19.0
- Last 10 games: −134.7
- L@IND122–134−12.3
- L@DEN105–111−5.6
- L@POR104–130−36.7
- L@GSW107–119−12.3
- W@UTA127–124+6.3
- LBKN121–136−22.3
- LDAL102–118−22.9
- LGSW104–127−22.8
- LATL121–127−11.3
- W@WAS119–113+5.2
CLE1674
- Ended last season at 1565 → started this one at 1549
- First 41 games: +67.4
- Last 10 games: +58.0
- L@MIL116–126−8.7
- W@MIL112–100+14.4
- WLAC118–108+9.6
- WDET128–121+0.9
- W@MEM108–101+5.5
- W@SAS117–101+4.2
- WSAC136–110+9.6
- W@WAS114–106+2.6
- W@BKN118–95+10.4
- W@TOR119–95+9.5
Season scoring marginPHI+4.6CLE+5.9
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
PHI+4.6
Scores 118.5, allows 113.9 over 52 games: +4.6 a game.
CLE+5.9
Scores 114.9, allows 109.0 over 51 games: +5.9 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10PHI113.3CLE119.6
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.3).
PHI113.3scored, −2.0 vs league
| Factor | PHI | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 51.5% | 54.9% | −5.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.5% | 11.5% | +2.9 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 24.9% | 24.3% | +0.3 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.209 | 0.202 | +0.2 | |
| Everything else | −0.3 |
CLE119.6scored, +4.3 vs league
| Factor | CLE | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 58.2% | 54.9% | +5.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.7% | 11.5% | +1.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 22.8% | 24.3% | −0.7 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.173 | 0.202 | −0.8 | |
| Everything else | −0.3 |
Defensive rating, last 10PHI124.0CLE107.1
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.3).
PHI124.0allowed, +8.6 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 59.8% | 54.9% | −7.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.3% | 11.5% | −0.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 25.8% | 24.3% | −0.7 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.233 | 0.202 | −0.9 | |
| Everything else | +0.8 |
CLE107.1allowed, −8.2 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 51.3% | 54.9% | +5.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.8% | 11.5% | +0.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 21.8% | 24.3% | +1.1 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.170 | 0.202 | +0.9 | |
| Everything else | +0.4 |
Pace, last 10average 99.6
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
PHI 100.0 and CLE 99.3 → average 99.6 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.7)
Rotation points missingPHI44.7CLE4.8
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
PHI44.7pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Embiid | 22.5 | 30.5 | 2 |
| Tobias Harris | 17.9 | 33.2 | 7 |
| Nicolas Batum | 4.3 | 23.9 | 3 |
Source: official injury report, 2024-02-12 17:30 ET. 13 rotation players.
CLE4.8pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dean Wade | 4.8 | 18.1 | 10 |
Source: official injury report, 2024-02-12 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
RestPHI2 daysCLE2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
PHI2days
Last played Feb 10 against WAS.
CLE2days
Last played Feb 10 against TOR.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
PHI
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10 | @WAS | 119–113 | 48-100 | 8-27 | 15-23 | 11 | 13 | 112.3 | 107.6 | 105.5 |
| Feb 9 | ATL | 121–127 | 42-98 | 15-45 | 22-29 | 9 | 18 | 121.0 | 128.3 | 99.5 |
| Feb 7 | GSW | 104–127 | 41-98 | 8-32 | 14-14 | 14 | 11 | 101.0 | 123.3 | 103.0 |
| Feb 5 | DAL | 102–118 | 40-93 | 8-29 | 14-20 | 11 | 16 | 105.2 | 122.9 | 96.5 |
| Feb 3 | BKN | 121–136 | 44-96 | 12-29 | 21-27 | 5 | 11 | 119.8 | 133.3 | 101.5 |
| Feb 1 | @UTA | 127–124 | 47-94 | 14-32 | 19-21 | 4 | 10 | 129.6 | 126.5 | 98.0 |
| Jan 30 | @GSW | 107–119 | 39-85 | 13-30 | 16-21 | 16 | 13 | 110.3 | 121.4 | 97.5 |
| Jan 29 | @POR | 104–130 | 37-83 | 5-29 | 25-28 | 14 | 12 | 107.2 | 134.0 | 97.0 |
| Jan 27 | @DEN | 105–111 | 43-81 | 6-22 | 13-16 | 11 | 6 | 112.9 | 118.1 | 93.5 |
| Jan 25 | @IND | 122–134 | 42-87 | 7-29 | 31-43 | 12 | 6 | 114.0 | 124.1 | 107.5 |
CLE
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10 | @TOR | 119–95 | 48-92 | 14-41 | 9-13 | 10 | 14 | 129.3 | 101.1 | 93.0 |
| Feb 8 | @BKN | 118–95 | 43-80 | 15-37 | 17-17 | 15 | 7 | 121.6 | 97.9 | 97.0 |
| Feb 7 | @WAS | 114–106 | 43-88 | 12-35 | 16-22 | 14 | 7 | 111.8 | 103.9 | 102.0 |
| Feb 5 | SAC | 136–110 | 51-88 | 23-41 | 11-17 | 8 | 5 | 137.4 | 112.2 | 98.5 |
| Feb 3 | @SAS | 117–101 | 46-97 | 13-44 | 12-13 | 9 | 10 | 115.8 | 100.0 | 101.0 |
| Feb 1 | @MEM | 108–101 | 41-86 | 14-35 | 12-18 | 14 | 10 | 108.0 | 102.0 | 99.5 |
| Jan 31 | DET | 128–121 | 47-89 | 12-35 | 22-23 | 9 | 10 | 130.6 | 122.2 | 98.5 |
| Jan 29 | LAC | 118–108 | 42-86 | 13-40 | 21-26 | 13 | 11 | 121.6 | 111.3 | 97.0 |
| Jan 26 | @MIL | 112–100 | 38-92 | 14-36 | 22-31 | 13 | 15 | 108.7 | 98.0 | 102.5 |
| Jan 24 | @MIL | 116–126 | 46-91 | 13-38 | 11-15 | 12 | 6 | 111.5 | 122.3 | 103.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2023-24 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | PHI | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 123 | 121 |
| Field goals | 48–88 · 54.5% | 44–92 · 47.8% |
| Three-pointers | 11–26 · 42.3% | 13–37 · 35.1% |
| Free throws | 16–19 · 84.2% | 20–25 · 80.0% |
| Rebounds | 42 | 43 |
| Assists | 25 | 33 |
| Turnovers | 10 | 10 |
| Steals | 5 | 6 |
| Blocks | 4 | 8 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Philadelphia 76ers · Cleveland Cavaliers
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (CLE) | +8 | −2 | −10 |
| Total points | 232 | 244 | +12 |
| PHI points | 112 | 123 | +11 |
| CLE points | 120 | 121 | +1 |
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 34 | 32 | 25 | 32 | – | 123 |
| CLE | 33 | 29 | 30 | 29 | – | 121 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 21 2023-24 | CLE at PHI | CLE 122 – 119 PHI |
| Mar 15 2022-23 | PHI at CLE | PHI 118 – 109 CLE |
| Feb 15 2022-23 | CLE at PHI | CLE 112 – 118 PHI |
| Nov 30 2022-23 | PHI at CLE | PHI 85 – 113 CLE |
| Apr 3 2021-22 | PHI at CLE | PHI 112 – 108 CLE |