The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 27

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers

Wednesday, November 27, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

ATL 2–0@CLE 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: ATL 18 percent, CLE 82 percent. ATL Hawks 18% proj. 112 · final 135 CLE Cavaliers · home 82% proj. 126 · final 124
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
ATL Atlanta Hawks 112 135 +23
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers (home) 126 124 −2

Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 82% win probability, projected margin 14.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputATLCLE
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14271633
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +276
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −5.1+11.3
Games played this season 1818
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 109.6124.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 114.1113.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 102.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 3.315.4
Rest days 23
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingATL1427CLE1633

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ATL1427

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1453 → started this one at 1465
  2. First 8 games: −20.1
  3. Last 10 games: −17.4
  • WNYK121–116+8.5
  • L@DET121–122−4.1
  • LCHI113–125−14.9
  • W@BOS117–116+9.7
  • WWAS129–117+4.7
  • L@POR110–114−6.3
  • W@SAC109–108+6.8
  • L@GSW97–120−5.4
  • L@CHI122–136−10.0
  • LDAL119–129−6.4

CLE1633

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1523 → started this one at 1517
  2. First 8 games: +65.1
  3. Last 10 games: +50.6
  • W@NOP131–122+8.1
  • WGSW136–117+14.6
  • WBKN105–100+2.3
  • W@CHI119–113+5.7
  • W@PHI114–106+5.9
  • WCHI144–126+5.5
  • WCHA128–114+3.0
  • L@BOS117–120−3.0
  • WNOP128–100+6.2
  • WTOR122–108+2.3
Season scoring marginATL−5.1CLE+11.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ATL−5.1

Scores 115.6, allows 121.0 over 18 games: −5.4 a game.

90% this season (−5.4) + 10% last season (−2.2) = −5.1

CLE+11.3

Scores 123.4, allows 111.1 over 18 games: +12.4 a game.

90% this season (+12.4) + 10% last season (+1.4) = +11.3

Offensive rating, last 10ATL109.6CLE124.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.7).

ATL109.6scored, −3.1 vs league

FactorATLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.6%54.0%−3.6
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%12.3%−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.6%24.8%+1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1760.199−0.7
Everything else−0.3

CLE124.1scored, +11.4 vs league

FactorCLELeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)60.7%54.0%+10.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.3%+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.6%24.8%−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1910.199−0.2
Everything else+0.3
Defensive rating, last 10ATL114.1CLE113.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.7).

ATL114.1allowed, +1.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.7%54.0%−5.7
Turnovers (TOV%)15.0%12.3%+3.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.7%24.8%+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1880.199+0.3
Everything else−0.3

CLE113.1allowed, +0.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.4%54.0%−0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.3%−0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.1%24.8%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1650.199+1.0
Everything else−1.0
Pace, last 10average 102.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ATL 105.7 and CLE 99.9 → average 102.8 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingATL3.3CLE15.4

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ATL3.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Keaton Wallace3.317.06

Source: official injury report, 2024-11-27 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

CLE15.4pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Caris LeVert11.626.77
Dean Wade3.819.76

Source: official injury report, 2024-11-27 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestATL2 daysCLE3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ATL2days

Last played Nov 25 against DAL.

CLE3days

Last played Nov 24 against TOR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ATL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 25DAL119–12948-1019-3114-16149105.3115.2112.5
Nov 22@CHI122–13649-10710-3414-191112111.9125.9108.5
Nov 20@GSW97–12035-10512-4515-24172186.6107.1112.0
Nov 18@SAC109–10839-8316-3815-18146112.4109.198.0
Nov 17@POR110–11439-8511-3221-252516106.8111.8102.5
Nov 15WAS129–11746-9812-3725-301615114.2103.5113.0
Nov 12@BOS117–11650-9910-327-131619117.0117.299.5
Nov 9CHI113–12541-899-2922-301310106.6120.2105.0
Nov 8@DET121–12244-9715-3618-231715113.1115.1106.5
Nov 6NYK121–11645-10015-3816-22816122.2116.099.5

CLE

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 24TOR122–10848-9716-4110-141314119.6104.9102.5
Nov 20NOP128–10049-9318-4212-141116136.2105.394.5
Nov 19@BOS117–12046-9310-2915-17712123.2127.794.5
Nov 17CHA128–11444-7713-3027-28209126.7115.2100.0
Nov 15CHI144–12651-9321-4321-24134132.1115.6109.0
Nov 13@PHI114–10642-8516-4014-17119116.3110.497.0
Nov 11@CHI119–11343-9715-4518-24812114.4109.7103.5
Nov 9BKN105–10040-7410-2815-19144114.1108.792.0
Nov 8GSW136–11746-8520-4224-28199127.1109.3107.0
Nov 6@NOP131–12252-9617-3510-131112131.0124.599.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
18%
pregame chance the forecast gave ATL, the winner
the forecast favored CLE
25 pts
margin miss
forecast +14, actual −11 for CLE
4th
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
97th
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 1.73 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statATLCLE
Final score135124
Field goals46–97 · 47.4%44–95 · 46.3%
Three-pointers20–42 · 47.6%15–48 · 31.3%
Free throws23–25 · 92.0%21–28 · 75.0%
Rebounds5144
Assists3931
Turnovers1312
Steals611
Blocks65

How the model does with these teams over time: Atlanta Hawks · Cleveland Cavaliers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CLE)+14−11−25
Total points238259+21
ATL points112135+23
CLE points126124−2

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
ATL35263737–135
CLE35293129–124

Recent form before this game

Atlanta Hawks

DateOpponentResult
Nov 25 vs DAL L 119–129
Nov 22 at CHI L 122–136
Nov 20 at GSW L 97–120
Nov 18 at SAC W 109–108
Nov 17 at POR L 110–114

Cleveland Cavaliers

DateOpponentResult
Nov 24 vs TOR W 122–108
Nov 20 vs NOP W 128–100
Nov 19 at BOS L 117–120
Nov 17 vs CHA W 128–114
Nov 15 vs CHI W 144–126

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 6 2023-24 CLE at ATL CLE 101 – 112 ATL
Jan 20 2023-24 CLE at ATL CLE 116 – 95 ATL
Dec 16 2023-24 ATL at CLE ATL 119 – 127 CLE
Nov 28 2023-24 ATL at CLE ATL 105 – 128 CLE
Mar 28 2022-23 CLE at ATL CLE 118 – 120 ATL