The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Mar 31

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers

Friday, March 31, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

NYK 2–3@CLE 1–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: NYK 17 percent, CLE 83 percent. NYK Knicks 17% proj. 102 · final 130 CLE Cavaliers · home 83% proj. 117 · final 116
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
NYK New York Knicks 102 130 +28
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers (home) 117 116 −1

Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 83% win probability, projected margin 15.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputNYKCLE
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15771618
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +111
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.9+5.6
Games played this season 7777
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 117.9118.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 116.0111.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 97.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 24.321.0
Rest days 23
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNYK1577CLE1618

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NYK1577

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1519 → started this one at 1514
  2. First 67 games: +80.1
  3. Last 10 games: −17.8
  • L@SAC117–122−6.6
  • L@LAC95–106−11.2
  • W@LAL112–108+6.6
  • W@POR123–107+9.2
  • WDEN116–110+5.3
  • LMIN134–140−12.7
  • L@MIA120–127−8.1
  • L@ORL106–111−8.7
  • WHOU137–115+3.2
  • WMIA101–92+5.2

CLE1618

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1495 → started this one at 1496
  2. First 67 games: +106.9
  3. Last 10 games: +14.5
  • W@MIA104–100+6.0
  • L@MIA115–119−6.9
  • W@CHA114–108+4.5
  • W@CHA120–104+7.9
  • LPHI109–118−11.6
  • WWAS117–94+8.1
  • W@BKN115–109+6.6
  • W@BKN116–114+3.9
  • WHOU108–91+2.0
  • L@ATL118–120−6.0
Season scoring marginNYK+2.9CLE+5.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NYK+2.9

Scores 115.4, allows 112.5 over 77 games: +2.9 a game.

CLE+5.6

Scores 112.3, allows 106.7 over 77 games: +5.6 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10NYK117.9CLE118.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).

NYK117.9scored, +3.8 vs league

FactorNYKLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.9%54.7%+1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.0%+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.6%23.8%+2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2400.212+0.8
Everything else−1.7

CLE118.6scored, +4.5 vs league

FactorCLELeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.5%54.7%+1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)9.8%12.0%+3.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.6%23.8%−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2090.212−0.1
Everything else+0.2
Defensive rating, last 10NYK116.0CLE111.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).

NYK116.0allowed, +1.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.8%54.7%−3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.0%12.0%−1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)18.2%23.8%+2.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1970.212+0.4
Everything else−0.2

CLE111.8allowed, −2.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.4%54.7%−1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)15.8%12.0%+5.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.2%23.8%−2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2420.212−0.8
Everything else+0.8
Pace, last 10average 97.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NYK 98.1 and CLE 96.0 → average 97.1 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingNYK24.3CLE21.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NYK24.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Julius Randle24.332.810

Source: official injury report, 2023-03-31 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

CLE21.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jarrett Allen13.833.55
Isaac Okoro7.226.29

Source: official injury report, 2023-03-31 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestNYK2 daysCLE3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NYK2days

Last played Mar 29 against MIA.

CLE3days

Last played Mar 28 against ATL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NYK

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 29MIA101–9238-7613-3112-23159111.0100.091.5
Mar 27HOU137–11550-8617-3920-28107134.3115.0101.0
Mar 23@ORL106–11137-8812-4020-261313108.2111.099.0
Mar 22@MIA120–12742-8216-4020-25169120.0128.399.5
Mar 20MIN134–14048-8514-2824-28167128.8134.6104.0
Mar 18DEN116–11041-839-3225-281215123.4117.094.0
Mar 14@POR123–10742-8115-3524-34129120.6107.0101.0
Mar 12@LAL112–10842-8811-3717-211112117.9114.994.5
Mar 11@LAC95–10632-907-3124-27920103.3115.292.0
Mar 9@SAC117–12242-10113-5020-311323111.4117.3104.5

CLE

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 28@ATL118–12047-939-2515-22810118.0120.0100.0
Mar 26HOU108–9139-839-3021-24913117.4100.091.5
Mar 23@BKN116–11442-8912-3220-26913119.6117.597.0
Mar 21@BKN115–10942-8314-2917-21148121.1114.795.0
Mar 17WAS117–9448-874-1917-22109121.997.996.0
Mar 15PHI109–11840-8514-4115-221012118.5126.992.5
Mar 14@CHA120–10445-8814-3016-1988125.0107.296.5
Mar 12@CHA114–10841-877-2725-341011115.2106.9100.0
Mar 10@MIA115–11940-8618-4317-21118118.6121.497.5
Mar 8@MIA104–10039-809-2817-19157110.6105.394.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
17%
pregame chance the forecast gave NYK, the winner
the forecast favored CLE
29 pts
margin miss
forecast +15, actual −14 for CLE
5th
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
32nd
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.77 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statNYKCLE
Final score130116
Field goals49–93 · 52.7%44–86 · 51.2%
Three-pointers17–36 · 47.2%17–37 · 45.9%
Free throws15–24 · 62.5%11–13 · 84.6%
Rebounds4833
Assists2433
Turnovers710
Steals62
Blocks59

How the model does with these teams over time: New York Knicks · Cleveland Cavaliers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CLE)+15−14−29
Total points219246+27
NYK points102130+28
CLE points117116−1

Recent form before this game

New York Knicks

DateOpponentResult
Mar 29 vs MIA W 101–92
Mar 27 vs HOU W 137–115
Mar 23 at ORL L 106–111
Mar 22 at MIA L 120–127
Mar 20 vs MIN L 134–140

Cleveland Cavaliers

DateOpponentResult
Mar 28 at ATL L 118–120
Mar 26 vs HOU W 108–91
Mar 23 at BKN W 116–114
Mar 21 at BKN W 115–109
Mar 17 vs WAS W 117–94

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 24 2022-23 CLE at NYK CLE 103 – 105 NYK
Dec 4 2022-23 CLE at NYK CLE 81 – 92 NYK
Oct 30 2022-23 NYK at CLE NYK 108 – 121 CLE
Apr 2 2021-22 CLE at NYK CLE 119 – 101 NYK
Jan 24 2021-22 NYK at CLE NYK 93 – 95 CLE