2025-26 · Playoffs · Final

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors

Friday, May 1, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

CLE 1–4@TOR 5–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers	111	110	−1
TOR Toronto Raptors (home)	117	112	−5

Forecast: Toronto Raptors to win, 65% win probability, projected margin 6.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

65%

pregame chance the forecast gave TOR, the winner

TOR was the forecast favorite

4 pts

margin miss

forecast +6, actual +2 for TOR

821st

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

984th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 0.43 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CLE	TOR
Final score	110	112
Field goals	40–93 · 43.0%	40–87 · 46.0%
Three-pointers	11–41 · 26.8%	13–36 · 36.1%
Free throws	19–27 · 70.4%	19–23 · 82.6%
Rebounds	52	38
Assists	23	27
Turnovers	18	15
Steals	8	13
Blocks	4	9

How the model does with these teams over time: Cleveland Cavaliers · Toronto Raptors

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (TOR)	+6	+2	−4
Total points	228	222	−6
CLE points	111	110	−1
TOR points	117	112	−5

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-05-01 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.