2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Cleveland Cavaliers at New Orleans Pelicans

Wednesday, March 13, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

CLE 2–3@NOP 3–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers	107	116	+9
NOP New Orleans Pelicans (home)	114	95	−19

Forecast: New Orleans Pelicans to win, 68% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CLE	NOP
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1572	1634
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+132
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+4.1	+5.3
Games played this season	65	64
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	111.3	118.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	113.7	107.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	97.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	32.5	0.0
Rest days	2	3
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCLE1572NOP1634

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CLE1572

Ended last season at 1565 → started this one at 1549
First 55 games: +88.8
Last 10 games: −66.0

W@WAS114–105+2.7
WDAL121–119+2.3
L@CHI123–132−13.2
W@DET110–100+3.1
LNYK98–107−16.0
WBOS105–104+4.9
L@ATL101–112−15.5
WMIN113–104+8.8
LBKN101–120−32.8
LPHX111–117−10.3

NOP1634

Ended last season at 1535 → started this one at 1527
First 54 games: +75.7
Last 10 games: +31.9

WWAS133–126+1.3
WHOU127–105+6.4
LMIA95–106−17.2
LCHI106–114−15.4
W@NYK115–92+23.0
L@IND114–123−10.0
WIND129–102+11.9
W@TOR139–98+17.0
W@PHI103–95+6.2
W@ATL116–103+8.7

Season scoring marginCLE+4.1NOP+5.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CLE+4.1

Scores 113.7, allows 109.7 over 65 games: +4.1 a game.

NOP+5.3

Scores 116.4, allows 111.1 over 64 games: +5.3 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CLE111.3NOP118.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.9).

CLE111.3scored, −3.7 vs league

Factor	CLE	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.9%	54.8%	+0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.2%	11.5%	+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.5%	24.2%	−2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.173	0.198	−0.7
Everything else			−1.5

NOP118.4scored, +3.5 vs league

Factor	NOP	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.7%	54.8%	+4.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.7%	11.5%	−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.6%	24.2%	+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.183	0.198	−0.4
Everything else			−0.9

Defensive rating, last 10CLE113.7NOP107.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.9).

CLE113.7allowed, −1.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.8%	54.8%	+1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.7%	11.5%	−2.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.1%	24.2%	+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.175	0.198	+0.7
Everything else			+0.8

NOP107.0allowed, −7.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.7%	54.8%	+6.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.6%	11.5%	+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.6%	24.2%	−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.165	0.198	+0.9
Everything else			+0.9

Pace, last 10average 97.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CLE 95.7 and NOP 99.3 → average 97.5 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.5)

Rotation points missingCLE32.5NOP0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CLE32.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Evan Mobley	16.2	30.8	6
Max Strus	11.0	30.6	5
Dean Wade	5.4	19.2	8

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-13 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

NOP0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-13 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestCLE2 daysNOP3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CLE2days

Last played Mar 11 against PHX.

NOP3days

Last played Mar 10 against ATL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CLE

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 11	PHX	111–117	40-84	15-46	16-19	12	8	115.6	121.9	96.0
Mar 10	BKN	101–120	37-76	14-32	13-20	12	3	108.6	129.0	93.0
Mar 8	MIN	113–104	38-88	11-34	26-36	12	10	110.8	102.0	92.4
Mar 6	@ATL	101–112	39-89	10-44	13-17	13	9	104.1	117.9	96.0
Mar 5	BOS	105–104	39-90	20-42	7-11	8	8	111.7	108.3	95.0
Mar 3	NYK	98–107	39-87	17-44	3-8	10	10	107.7	117.6	91.0
Mar 1	@DET	110–100	33-83	18-41	26-30	15	12	111.1	101.0	99.0
Feb 28	@CHI	123–132	45-104	22-54	11-19	12	5	104.2	112.8	97.2
Feb 27	DAL	121–119	44-83	20-40	13-18	16	9	124.7	121.4	97.5
Feb 25	@WAS	114–105	42-83	10-32	20-27	10	6	114.0	105.0	100.0

NOP

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 10	@ATL	116–103	43-75	14-27	16-22	12	4	120.8	109.6	95.0
Mar 8	@PHI	103–95	35-79	11-31	22-23	12	9	109.6	101.1	94.0
Mar 5	@TOR	139–98	53-105	24-49	9-11	11	11	135.0	93.3	104.0
Mar 1	IND	129–102	48-86	15-32	18-26	17	11	126.5	100.0	102.0
Feb 28	@IND	114–123	42-90	11-29	19-23	10	7	112.9	121.8	101.0
Feb 27	@NYK	115–92	39-77	18-34	19-23	14	10	125.0	101.1	91.5
Feb 25	CHI	106–114	40-88	16-41	10-14	19	12	106.0	111.8	101.0
Feb 23	MIA	95–106	39-104	7-32	10-13	11	18	99.0	109.3	96.5
Feb 22	HOU	127–105	50-96	16-41	11-18	13	9	121.0	100.0	105.0
Feb 14	WAS	133–126	50-89	10-32	23-29	10	8	127.9	122.3	103.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

32%

pregame chance the forecast gave CLE, the winner

the forecast favored NOP

28 pts

margin miss

forecast +7, actual −21 for NOP

49th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

72nd

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 1.15 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CLE	NOP
Final score	116	95
Field goals	47–92 · 51.1%	35–80 · 43.8%
Three-pointers	20–45 · 44.4%	4–22 · 18.2%
Free throws	2–3 · 66.7%	21–26 · 80.8%
Rebounds	46	43
Assists	38	22
Turnovers	9	11
Steals	4	7
Blocks	4	6

How the model does with these teams over time: Cleveland Cavaliers · New Orleans Pelicans

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (NOP)	+7	−21	−28
Total points	221	211	−10
CLE points	107	116	+9
NOP points	114	95	−19

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
CLE	30	23	34	29	–	116
NOP	22	23	23	27	–	95

Recent form before this game