2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers

Thursday, October 22, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

CLE 0–0@PHI 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers	114	106	−8
PHI Philadelphia 76ers (home)	113	114	+1

Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans CLE

Home court+2.1 PHIWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
Team strength+1.9 CLEElo PHI 1540, CLE 1574; season margin PHI −1.0, CLE +2.8.
Recent form+0.5 CLELast 10 games, per 100 possessions: PHI scores 108.7 and allows 117.5; CLE scores 109.3 and allows 115.7.

Together: CLE by 1, a 53% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

CLE hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a +3 team. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −2.5, getting to the line +1.8. Their defense lets opponents rebound 30% of their misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 1.7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense −1.2.

PHI is 1–0, winning by 6 a game on average (scoring 106, allowing 100). Last season they were a −1 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −4, ball security +1.8. Their defense lets opponents shoot 56% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 1.8 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −1.4, forcing turnovers −1.1.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors PHI; left favors CLE.

Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −0.0. The 53% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated

Every input the model received, with its effect

Input	CLE	PHI	Effect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1574	1540	+0.5
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+36		−1.0
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+2.8	−1.0	−0.3
Games played this season	0	1	−1.0
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	109.3	108.7	+0.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	115.7	117.5	+0.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	95.2		−1.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0	−0.0
Rest days	5	2	−0.2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No	+0.0

All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team

Input	Value	PHI pts	CLE pts	Margin
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)	115.7	+1.52	+0.03	+1.49
Combined pace, last 10	95.3	−4.72	−3.33	−1.39
Games played (away)	0.0	+0.19	+1.40	−1.21
Elo gap incl. home court	35.8	−0.69	+0.31	−1.00
Rotation points missing (away)	0.0	−0.18	+0.71	−0.89
Rotation points missing (home)	0.0	+0.78	−0.06	+0.84
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)	117.5	+0.61	+1.28	−0.67
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)	109.3	−0.16	−0.78	+0.62
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)	108.7	−0.38	+0.14	−0.52
Elo rating (home)	1539.5	+0.14	−0.28	+0.42
Season scoring margin (home)	-1.0	−0.13	+0.18	−0.31
Home series wins	0.0	+0.35	+0.05	+0.30
Games played (home)	1.0	+0.87	+0.70	+0.17
Rest days (away)	5.0	−0.23	−0.06	−0.17
Series pressure	0.0	+0.08	−0.00	+0.08
Elo rating (away)	1573.7	+0.08	+0.01	+0.07
Back-to-back (home)	0	+0.02	−0.01	+0.03
Season scoring margin (away)	2.8	+0.13	+0.15	−0.02
Rest days (home)	2.0	+0.02	+0.01	+0.01
Elimination game	0	±0.00	−0.01	+0.01
Back-to-back (away)	0	±0.00	±0.00	±0.00
Baseline (average output)		114.4	112.4	+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCLE1574PHI15400.5 pts toward CLE

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CLE1574

Ended last season at 1598 → started this one at 1574
No games played yet this season.

PHI1540

Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1524
This season's 1 game: +16.0

W@NYK106–100+16.0

Season scoring marginCLE+2.8PHI−1.01.4 pts toward CLE

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CLE+2.8

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (+2.8) = +2.8

PHI−1.0

Scores 106.0, allows 100.0 over 1 game: +6.0 a game.

5% this season (+6.0) + 95% last season (−1.3) = −1.0

Offensive rating, last 10CLE109.3PHI108.70.1 pts toward PHI

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CLE109.3scored, −5.3 vs league

Factor	CLE	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.2%	54.5%	−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.9%	12.2%	−2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.1%	26.1%	±0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.273	0.210	+1.8
Everything else			−1.1

PHI108.7scored, −5.9 vs league

Factor	PHI	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.5%	54.5%	−4.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.9%	12.2%	+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	18.3%	26.1%	−3.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.236	0.210	+0.8
Everything else			−0.4

Defensive rating, last 10CLE115.7PHI117.50.8 pts toward PHI

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CLE115.7allowed, +1.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.3%	54.5%	−1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.2%	12.2%	+0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.9%	26.1%	−1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.190	0.210	+0.6
Everything else			+1.1

PHI117.5allowed, +2.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.7%	54.5%	−1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	12.2%	−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.2%	26.1%	−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.197	0.210	+0.4
Everything else			+1.1

Pace, last 10average 95.21.4 pts toward CLE

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

Couldn't be rebuilt exactly from the stored box scores.

Rotation points missingCLE0.0PHI0.0no effect on the margin

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CLE0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-22 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

PHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-22 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestCLE5 daysPHI2 days0.1 pts toward CLE

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CLE5days

Last played May 25 against NYK (150 days, capped at 5).

PHI2days

Last played Oct 20 against NYK.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CLE

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
May 25	NYK	93–130	32-77	11-40	18-22	22	6	91.2	127.5	102.0
May 23	NYK	108–121	42-84	12-41	12-19	17	9	110.2	124.7	97.5
May 21	@NYK	93–109	31-80	9-35	22-32	8	13	104.5	122.5	89.0
May 19	@NYK	104–115	36-90	16-50	16-23	19	11	96.3	105.5	98.3
May 17	@DET	125–94	43-85	11-34	28-44	11	14	125.0	94.0	100.0
May 15	DET	94–115	30-77	12-35	22-30	20	16	100.0	122.3	94.0
May 13	@DET	117–113	36-80	14-35	31-38	16	13	118.2	116.5	88.8
May 11	DET	112–103	34-78	14-41	30-34	13	12	120.4	110.8	93.0
May 9	DET	116–109	43-74	12-32	18-28	15	5	119.6	114.7	96.0
May 7	@DET	97–107	34-81	7-32	22-27	11	9	107.8	118.9	90.0

PHI

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 20	@NYK	106–100	37-89	11-40	21-27	10	6	103.9	98.0	102.0
May 10	NYK	114–144	43-86	8-35	20-28	9	7	116.3	146.9	98.0
May 8	NYK	94–108	36-84	9-32	13-16	11	9	101.1	114.9	93.5
May 6	@NYK	102–108	34-75	13-34	21-28	18	11	108.5	113.7	94.5
May 4	@NYK	98–137	30-73	11-30	27-34	19	8	99.0	139.8	98.5
May 2	@BOS	109–100	39-82	11-28	20-23	9	3	116.0	105.3	94.5
Apr 30	BOS	106–93	39-89	11-33	17-19	10	8	107.1	93.0	99.5
Apr 28	@BOS	113–97	39-78	15-42	20-23	9	5	120.2	103.2	94.0
Apr 26	BOS	96–128	33-80	9-30	21-24	8	6	102.1	139.1	93.0
Apr 24	BOS	100–108	38-87	12-35	12-16	11	13	112.4	121.3	89.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

47%

pregame chance the forecast gave PHI, the winner

the forecast favored CLE

9 pts

margin miss

forecast −1, actual +8 for PHI

43rd

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

67th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.76 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CLE	PHI
Final score	106	114
Field goals	39–87 · 44.8%	42–92 · 45.7%
Three-pointers	7–29 · 24.1%	7–28 · 25.0%
Free throws	21–28 · 75.0%	23–30 · 76.7%
Rebounds	46	44
Assists	18	24
Turnovers	21	16
Steals	10	10
Blocks	7	2

How the model does with these teams over time: Cleveland Cavaliers · Philadelphia 76ers

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (PHI)	−1	+8	+9
Total points	227	220	−7
CLE points	114	106	−8
PHI points	113	114	+1

Recent form before this game