2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Cleveland Cavaliers at San Antonio Spurs

Monday, December 29, 2025 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

CLE 0–2@SAS 3–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers	114	113	−1
SAS San Antonio Spurs (home)	121	101	−20

Forecast: San Antonio Spurs to win, 69% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CLE	SAS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1521	1604
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+153
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+1.8	+6.2
Games played this season	33	32
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	116.8	120.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	118.0	110.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	102.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCLE1521SAS1604

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CLE1521

Ended last season at 1687 → started this one at 1641
First 23 games: −59.0
Last 10 games: −60.0

WSAS130–117+7.8
LGSW94–99−10.2
W@WAS130–126+1.8
LCHA111–119−20.4
L@CHI111–127−19.2
LCHI125–136−19.7
WCHA139–132+3.2
WNOP141–118+6.5
L@NYK124–126−2.7
L@HOU100–117−7.1

SAS1604

Ended last season at 1417 → started this one at 1438
First 22 games: +95.3
Last 10 games: +71.1

W@NOP135–132+2.6
W@LAL132–119+17.6
WSAS111–109±0.0
L@SAS109–111±0.0
WWAS119–94+3.4
W@ATL126–98+20.3
W@WAS124–113+4.1
WOKC130–110+25.5
W@OKC117–102+26.0
LUTA114–127−28.4

Season scoring marginCLE+1.8SAS+6.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CLE+1.8

Scores 119.5, allows 117.8 over 33 games: +1.8 a game.

SAS+6.2

Scores 119.8, allows 113.6 over 32 games: +6.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CLE116.8SAS120.7

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.9).

CLE116.8scored, +1.9 vs league

Factor	CLE	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.9%	54.5%	+0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.6%	12.4%	+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.185	0.219	−1.0
Everything else			+1.2

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

SAS120.7scored, +5.8 vs league

Factor	SAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.1%	54.5%	+2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.8%	12.4%	+2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.212	0.219	−0.2
Everything else			+1.3

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Defensive rating, last 10CLE118.0SAS110.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.9).

CLE118.0allowed, +3.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.2%	54.5%	−2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.7%	12.4%	+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.193	0.219	+0.8
Everything else			−1.7

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

SAS110.8allowed, −4.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.1%	54.5%	+0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.4%	12.4%	−2.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.188	0.219	+0.9
Everything else			+5.3

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Pace, last 10average 102.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CLE 102.0 and SAS 102.0 → average 102.0 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.8)

Rotation points missingCLE0.0SAS0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CLE0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-29 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

SAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-29 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestCLE2 daysSAS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CLE2days

Last played Dec 27 against HOU.

SAS2days

Last played Dec 27 against UTA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CLE

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 27	@HOU	100–117	41-96	11-36	7-11	14	–	104.2	119.4	97.0
Dec 25	@NYK	124–126	45-86	15-34	19-23	14	–	120.4	122.3	103.0
Dec 23	NOP	141–118	56-105	20-49	9-11	13	–	131.8	111.3	106.5
Dec 22	CHA	139–132	48-87	24-44	19-19	13	–	136.3	132.0	101.0
Dec 19	CHI	125–136	48-101	14-39	15-19	15	–	116.8	127.1	107.0
Dec 17	@CHI	111–127	42-87	12-39	15-18	20	–	103.7	118.7	107.0
Dec 14	CHA	111–119	38-95	12-38	23-29	14	–	104.7	111.2	96.5
Dec 12	@WAS	130–126	41-97	15-53	33-36	7	–	125.0	120.0	104.5
Dec 6	GSW	94–99	37-107	10-42	10-12	12	–	98.9	104.2	95.0
Dec 5	SAS	130–117	50-86	8-26	22-29	14	–	126.2	113.6	103.0

SAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 27	UTA	114–127	43-99	10-44	18-21	11	–	115.2	127.0	99.5
Dec 25	@OKC	117–102	45-84	11-29	16-21	12	–	121.9	104.1	97.0
Dec 23	OKC	130–110	48-84	16-36	18-24	9	–	136.8	115.8	95.0
Dec 21	@WAS	124–113	43-104	13-41	25-32	9	–	121.6	108.7	103.0
Dec 19	@ATL	126–98	51-94	13-36	11-16	14	–	117.8	92.5	106.5
Dec 18	WAS	119–94	44-90	15-42	16-20	14	–	120.2	94.0	99.5
Dec 13	OKC	111–109	37-90	13-42	24-32	19	–	104.7	101.9	106.5
Dec 10	@LAL	132–119	43-86	17-38	29-36	10	–	126.9	113.3	104.5
Dec 8	@NOP	135–132	49-98	17-36	20-25	13	–	128.6	124.5	105.5
Dec 5	@CLE	117–130	42-93	15-43	18-26	14	–	113.6	126.2	103.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

31%

pregame chance the forecast gave CLE, the winner

the forecast favored SAS

19 pts

margin miss

forecast +7, actual −12 for SAS

89th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

229th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.17 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CLE	SAS
Final score	113	101
Field goals	41–96 · 42.7%	32–83 · 38.6%
Three-pointers	13–42 · 31.0%	7–31 · 22.6%
Free throws	18–20 · 90.0%	30–36 · 83.3%
Rebounds	47	52
Assists	29	21
Turnovers	12	18
Steals	12	7
Blocks	4	2

How the model does with these teams over time: Cleveland Cavaliers · San Antonio Spurs

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (SAS)	+7	−12	−19
Total points	235	214	−21
CLE points	114	113	−1
SAS points	121	101	−20

Recent form before this game