2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic

Tuesday, February 25, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

CLE 0–2@ORL 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers	118	122	+4
ORL Orlando Magic (home)	112	82	−30

Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 64% win probability, projected margin 6.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CLE	ORL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1722	1438
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−214
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+11.2	−0.9
Games played this season	57	59
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	125.2	109.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	108.9	107.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCLE1722ORL1438

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CLE1722

Ended last season at 1523 → started this one at 1517
First 47 games: +159.8
Last 10 games: +44.7

WATL137–115+4.3
WDAL144–101+11.1
LBOS105–112−11.9
W@DET118–115+3.3
W@WAS134–124+1.9
WMIN128–107+9.6
W@TOR131–108+6.6
W@BKN110–97+3.8
WNYK142–105+12.6
WMEM129–123+3.4

ORL1438

Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1523
First 49 games: −105.7
Last 10 games: +21.4

L@UTA99–113−12.2
L@GSW99–104−4.0
W@SAC130–111+29.4
L@DEN90–112−5.5
WSAS112–111+3.4
LATL106–112−8.9
WCHA102–86+5.9
W@ATL114–108+11.1
LMEM104–105−2.8
WWAS110–90+5.0

Season scoring marginCLE+11.2ORL−0.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CLE+11.2

Scores 122.9, allows 111.7 over 57 games: +11.2 a game.

ORL−0.9

Scores 104.3, allows 105.2 over 59 games: −0.9 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CLE125.2ORL109.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.2).

CLE125.2scored, +12.0 vs league

Factor	CLE	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.0%	54.1%	+7.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.1%	12.2%	+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	32.6%	25.0%	+3.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.193	0.194	−0.0
Everything else			+1.3

ORL109.1scored, −4.0 vs league

Factor	ORL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.0%	54.1%	−6.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.1%	12.2%	+3.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.6%	25.0%	+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.214	0.194	+0.6
Everything else			−2.5

Defensive rating, last 10CLE108.9ORL107.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.2).

CLE108.9allowed, −4.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	49.9%	54.1%	+6.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.2%	12.2%	−1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.3%	25.0%	+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.183	0.194	+0.3
Everything else			−1.4

ORL107.3allowed, −5.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.3%	54.1%	+2.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.8%	12.2%	+2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.2%	25.0%	+2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.229	0.194	−1.0
Everything else			−0.3

Pace, last 10average 99.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CLE 101.9 and ORL 97.9 → average 99.9 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingCLE0.0ORL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CLE0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-02-25 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

ORL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-02-25 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestCLE2 daysORL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CLE2days

Last played Feb 23 against MEM.

ORL2days

Last played Feb 23 against WAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CLE

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Feb 23	MEM	129–123	46-99	13-47	24-35	14	22	127.7	124.2	100.0
Feb 21	NYK	142–105	56-92	19-37	11-15	15	11	137.9	101.9	103.0
Feb 20	@BKN	110–97	40-94	11-39	19-27	16	17	108.9	96.0	101.0
Feb 12	@TOR	131–108	48-99	18-53	17-20	13	13	126.0	103.8	104.0
Feb 10	MIN	128–107	48-94	17-43	15-20	16	14	126.7	105.9	101.0
Feb 7	@WAS	134–124	48-94	16-38	22-24	14	14	132.7	122.8	101.0
Feb 5	@DET	118–115	41-85	16-38	20-24	23	11	116.8	115.0	100.5
Feb 4	BOS	105–112	36-91	11-39	22-26	13	14	106.1	113.1	99.0
Feb 2	DAL	144–101	53-93	26-45	12-16	8	2	135.8	93.5	107.0
Jan 30	ATL	137–115	53-91	13-39	18-20	11	10	133.0	112.7	102.5

ORL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Feb 23	WAS	110–90	40-90	11-32	19-22	13	14	113.4	92.8	97.0
Feb 21	MEM	104–105	36-88	9-31	23-33	12	13	103.0	102.9	101.5
Feb 20	@ATL	114–108	41-85	6-25	26-38	7	11	115.2	109.1	99.0
Feb 12	CHA	102–86	37-90	14-43	14-19	8	13	109.7	92.5	93.0
Feb 10	ATL	106–112	37-78	12-30	20-24	17	7	107.1	110.9	100.0
Feb 8	SAS	112–111	45-88	10-30	12-20	14	13	115.5	114.4	97.0
Feb 6	@DEN	90–112	31-84	5-31	23-30	13	10	91.8	113.1	98.5
Feb 5	@SAC	130–111	50-88	16-31	14-15	8	8	135.4	115.6	96.0
Feb 3	@GSW	99–104	43-99	8-32	5-10	11	18	103.1	109.5	95.5
Feb 1	@UTA	99–113	30-91	9-41	30-35	8	11	97.1	111.9	101.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

64%

pregame chance the forecast gave CLE, the winner

CLE was the forecast favorite

34 pts

margin miss

forecast −6, actual −40 for ORL

773rd

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

23rd

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 0.45 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CLE	ORL
Final score	122	82
Field goals	45–80 · 56.3%	33–90 · 36.7%
Three-pointers	19–32 · 59.4%	5–28 · 17.9%
Free throws	13–16 · 81.3%	11–14 · 78.6%
Rebounds	47	35
Assists	25	21
Turnovers	11	10
Steals	5	7
Blocks	5	8

How the model does with these teams over time: Cleveland Cavaliers · Orlando Magic

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (ORL)	−6	−40	−34
Total points	230	204	−26
CLE points	118	122	+4
ORL points	112	82	−30

Recent form before this game