2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat

Sunday, March 24, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

CLE 3–3@MIA 3–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers	104	84	−20
MIA Miami Heat (home)	105	121	+16

Forecast: Miami Heat to win, 57% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CLE	MIA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1576	1528
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+22
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+3.7	+0.2
Games played this season	70	70
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	110.5	108.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	114.0	111.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	94.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	24.2	25.1
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCLE1576MIA1528

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CLE1576

Ended last season at 1565 → started this one at 1549
First 60 games: +67.7
Last 10 games: −40.9

WBOS105–104+4.9
L@ATL101–112−15.5
WMIN113–104+8.8
LBKN101–120−32.8
LPHX111–117−10.3
W@NOP116–95+25.8
L@HOU103–117−14.8
W@IND108–103+8.1
LMIA104–107−8.3
L@MIN91–104−6.8

MIA1528

Ended last season at 1600 → started this one at 1575
First 60 games: −2.3
Last 10 games: −44.8

WDET118–110+1.6
L@DAL108–114−7.7
L@OKC100–107−5.1
LWAS108–110−11.9
LDEN88–100−11.2
W@DET108–95+6.3
W@DET104–101+2.7
L@PHI91–98−9.3
W@CLE107–104+8.3
LNOP88–111−18.5

Season scoring marginCLE+3.7MIA+0.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CLE+3.7

Scores 113.1, allows 109.3 over 70 games: +3.7 a game.

MIA+0.2

Scores 109.4, allows 109.2 over 70 games: +0.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CLE110.5MIA108.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.8).

CLE110.5scored, −4.3 vs league

Factor	CLE	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.0%	54.8%	−1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	11.5%	+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.2%	24.2%	−2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.181	0.196	−0.4
Everything else			−0.7

MIA108.6scored, −6.2 vs league

Factor	MIA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.2%	54.8%	−5.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	8.9%	11.5%	+3.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.2%	24.2%	−2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.161	0.196	−1.0
Everything else			−1.3

Defensive rating, last 10CLE114.0MIA111.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.8).

CLE114.0allowed, −0.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.3%	54.8%	+0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.3%	11.5%	−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.3%	24.2%	−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.164	0.196	+0.9
Everything else			+1.0

MIA111.6allowed, −3.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.6%	54.8%	+0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	11.5%	−0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.9%	24.2%	+1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.164	0.196	+0.9
Everything else			+0.5

Pace, last 10average 94.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CLE 94.3 and MIA 94.0 → average 94.2 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.3)

Rotation points missingCLE24.2MIA25.1

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CLE24.2pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Donovan Mitchell	13.5	26.8	2
Dean Wade	10.7	28.1	3

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-24 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

MIA25.1pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Duncan Robinson	15.2	31.4	8
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	9.9	27.9	10

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-24 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestCLE2 daysMIA2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CLE2days

Last played Mar 22 against MIN.

MIA2days

Last played Mar 22 against NOP.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CLE

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 22	@MIN	91–104	34-81	7-29	16-19	12	8	100.0	116.9	90.0
Mar 20	MIA	104–107	35-75	15-42	19-22	11	6	115.6	121.6	89.0
Mar 18	@IND	108–103	38-80	12-32	20-28	14	9	117.4	109.6	93.0
Mar 16	@HOU	103–117	37-82	12-38	17-20	15	7	103.0	115.8	100.5
Mar 13	@NOP	116–95	47-92	20-45	2-3	9	8	118.4	96.9	98.0
Mar 11	PHX	111–117	40-84	15-46	16-19	12	8	115.6	121.9	96.0
Mar 10	BKN	101–120	37-76	14-32	13-20	12	3	108.6	129.0	93.0
Mar 8	MIN	113–104	38-88	11-34	26-36	12	10	110.8	102.0	92.4
Mar 6	@ATL	101–112	39-89	10-44	13-17	13	9	104.1	117.9	96.0
Mar 5	BOS	105–104	39-90	20-42	7-11	8	8	111.7	108.3	95.0

MIA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 22	NOP	88–111	31-86	13-47	13-15	4	6	98.9	124.7	89.0
Mar 20	@CLE	107–104	38-83	13-36	18-19	7	7	121.6	115.6	89.0
Mar 18	@PHI	91–98	35-89	12-33	9-14	15	11	94.8	102.1	96.0
Mar 17	@DET	104–101	40-89	12-35	12-16	9	11	109.5	107.4	94.5
Mar 15	@DET	108–95	43-91	7-34	15-21	8	9	110.2	96.9	98.0
Mar 13	DEN	88–100	34-80	5-21	15-18	8	8	96.7	112.4	90.0
Mar 10	WAS	108–110	43-95	10-33	12-18	13	16	110.2	111.1	98.5
Mar 8	@OKC	100–107	38-82	11-29	13-18	10	7	106.4	111.5	95.0
Mar 7	@DAL	108–114	40-82	17-38	11-17	10	2	113.7	118.8	95.5
Mar 5	DET	118–110	42-85	14-31	20-23	9	8	124.2	115.8	95.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

57%

pregame chance the forecast gave MIA, the winner

MIA was the forecast favorite

36 pts

margin miss

forecast +1, actual +37 for MIA

655th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

21st

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 0.57 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CLE	MIA
Final score	84	121
Field goals	30–72 · 41.7%	43–83 · 51.8%
Three-pointers	9–29 · 31.0%	15–38 · 39.5%
Free throws	15–20 · 75.0%	20–23 · 87.0%
Rebounds	30	44
Assists	24	29
Turnovers	17	9
Steals	3	13
Blocks	3	0

How the model does with these teams over time: Cleveland Cavaliers · Miami Heat

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIA)	+1	+37	+36
Total points	209	205	−4
CLE points	104	84	−20
MIA points	105	121	+16

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
CLE	22	17	18	27	–	84
MIA	32	28	30	31	–	121

Recent form before this game