2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers

Tuesday, November 21, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

CLE 0–0@PHI 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers	111	122	+11
PHI Philadelphia 76ers (home)	117	119	+2

Forecast: Philadelphia 76ers to win, 67% win probability, projected margin 6.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CLE	PHI
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1546	1632
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+156
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+1.8	+7.1
Games played this season	13	13
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	112.5	120.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	110.7	112.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	33.8	14.6
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCLE1546PHI1632

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CLE1546

Ended last season at 1565 → started this one at 1549
First 3 games: −23.4
Last 10 games: +20.9

LNYK91–109−17.3
W@NYK95–89+12.0
L@IND116–121−7.4
WGSW115–104+11.7
L@OKC120–128−7.0
W@GSW118–110+14.3
L@SAC120–132−10.3
W@POR109–95+8.8
WDET108–100+2.5
WDEN121–109+13.6

PHI1632

Ended last season at 1625 → started this one at 1593
First 3 games: +10.1
Last 10 games: +28.2

WTOR114–99+7.4
WPHX112–100+5.8
WWAS146–128+4.6
WBOS106–103+4.7
W@DET114–106+3.3
WIND137–126+3.9
LIND126–132−15.3
LBOS107–117−11.3
W@ATL126–116+10.2
W@BKN121–99+14.9

Season scoring marginCLE+1.8PHI+7.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CLE+1.8

Scores 111.2, allows 111.0 over 13 games: +0.1 a game.

65% this season (+0.1) + 35% last season (+4.8) = +1.8

PHI+7.1

Scores 120.5, allows 111.5 over 13 games: +9.0 a game.

65% this season (+9.0) + 35% last season (+3.6) = +7.1

Offensive rating, last 10CLE112.5PHI120.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 113.1).

CLE112.5scored, −0.6 vs league

Factor	CLE	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.3%	54.1%	+1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.4%	12.2%	−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.3%	24.5%	−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.236	0.201	+1.0
Everything else			−1.8

PHI120.5scored, +7.4 vs league

Factor	PHI	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.8%	54.1%	−0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.5%	12.2%	+2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.5%	24.5%	+1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.256	0.201	+1.6
Everything else			+1.9

Defensive rating, last 10CLE110.7PHI112.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 113.1).

CLE110.7allowed, −2.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.1%	54.1%	+3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.5%	12.2%	+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.1%	24.5%	−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.210	0.201	−0.3
Everything else			+0.1

PHI112.2allowed, −0.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.6%	54.1%	+0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.0%	12.2%	−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.9%	24.5%	+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.203	0.201	−0.1
Everything else			+0.3

Pace, last 10average 99.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CLE 99.0 and PHI 100.3 → average 99.7 (league 2023-24 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingCLE33.8PHI14.6

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CLE33.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Donovan Mitchell	27.8	35.5	8
Isaac Okoro	6.0	26.1	3

Source: official injury report, 2023-11-21 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

PHI14.6pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Kelly Oubre Jr.	14.6	28.9	5

Source: official injury report, 2023-11-21 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestCLE2 daysPHI2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CLE2days

Last played Nov 19 against DEN.

PHI2days

Last played Nov 19 against BKN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CLE

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 19	DEN	121–109	45-82	11-27	20-26	13	11	124.7	112.4	97.0
Nov 17	DET	108–100	42-82	9-21	15-21	12	7	111.3	102.0	97.5
Nov 15	@POR	109–95	42-75	9-30	16-21	17	7	114.7	101.1	94.5
Nov 13	@SAC	120–132	45-91	16-35	14-17	11	14	126.3	137.5	95.5
Nov 11	@GSW	118–110	37-86	11-30	33-43	10	11	113.5	104.8	104.5
Nov 8	@OKC	120–128	42-83	9-29	27-37	18	11	115.4	123.1	104.0
Nov 5	GSW	115–104	41-83	11-37	22-28	18	13	113.9	102.0	101.5
Nov 3	@IND	116–121	44-84	8-28	20-25	13	5	112.6	118.6	102.5
Nov 1	@NYK	95–89	32-74	12-32	19-20	18	6	97.9	92.7	96.5
Oct 31	NYK	91–109	36-92	10-38	9-12	15	14	94.8	112.4	96.5

PHI

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 19	@BKN	121–99	44-94	16-35	17-18	4	10	127.4	103.1	95.5
Nov 17	@ATL	126–116	43-88	13-30	27-28	15	13	128.6	117.2	98.5
Nov 15	BOS	107–117	39-85	11-30	18-22	9	10	115.1	125.8	93.0
Nov 14	IND	126–132	43-86	6-22	34-35	16	5	114.5	122.2	109.0
Nov 12	IND	137–126	53-105	14-33	17-20	11	23	137.0	126.0	100.0
Nov 10	@DET	114–106	35-83	9-28	35-41	8	11	116.3	108.2	98.0
Nov 8	BOS	106–103	42-95	9-34	13-15	12	12	103.9	100.0	102.5
Nov 6	WAS	146–128	51-91	12-31	32-36	15	10	131.5	115.3	111.0
Nov 4	PHX	112–100	43-90	11-30	15-18	17	15	113.1	101.0	99.0
Nov 2	TOR	114–99	42-92	9-25	21-25	14	15	117.5	103.1	96.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

34%

pregame chance the forecast gave CLE, the winner

the forecast favored PHI

9 pts

margin miss

forecast +6, actual −3 for PHI

65th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

634th

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 1.09 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CLE	PHI
Final score	122	119
Field goals	46–94 · 48.9%	40–96 · 41.7%
Three-pointers	9–25 · 36.0%	11–35 · 31.4%
Free throws	21–25 · 84.0%	28–34 · 82.4%
Rebounds	56	44
Assists	33	19
Turnovers	15	14
Steals	9	12
Blocks	4	8

How the model does with these teams over time: Cleveland Cavaliers · Philadelphia 76ers

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (PHI)	+6	−3	−9
Total points	228	241	+13
CLE points	111	122	+11
PHI points	117	119	+2

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
CLE	27	38	23	22	12	122
PHI	24	29	26	31	9	119

Recent form before this game