The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jan 1

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz

Monday, January 1, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

DAL 1–0@UTA 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DAL 47 percent, UTA 53 percent. DAL Mavericks 47% proj. 118 · final 90 UTA Jazz · home 53% proj. 117 · final 127
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DAL Dallas Mavericks 118 90 −28
UTA Utah Jazz (home) 117 127 +10

Forecast: Dallas Mavericks to win, 47% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputDALUTA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15011433
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +3
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +1.4−5.4
Games played this season 3333
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 114.8118.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 118.0116.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.05.7
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDAL1501UTA1433

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DAL1501

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1437 → started this one at 1453
  2. First 23 games: +59.6
  3. Last 10 games: −11.4
  • LMIN101–119−14.3
  • W@POR131–120+7.7
  • L@DEN104–130−9.2
  • LLAC111–120−8.8
  • L@HOU96–122−15.0
  • WSAS144–119+6.0
  • W@PHX128–114+17.2
  • LCLE110–113−6.1
  • L@MIN110–118−3.8
  • W@GSW132–122+14.9

UTA1433

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1413 → started this one at 1435
  2. First 23 games: −68.0
  3. Last 10 games: +66.5
  • WNYK117–113+9.9
  • W@POR122–114+10.5
  • L@SAC104–125−6.4
  • WBKN125–108+18.8
  • L@CLE116–124−3.5
  • W@DET119–111+6.5
  • W@TOR126–119+12.7
  • W@SAS130–118+9.1
  • L@NOP105–112−3.4
  • WMIA117–109+12.3
Season scoring marginDAL+1.4UTA−5.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DAL+1.4

Scores 119.2, allows 117.8 over 33 games: +1.4 a game.

UTA−5.4

Scores 113.4, allows 118.8 over 33 games: −5.4 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10DAL114.8UTA118.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.0).

DAL114.8scored, −0.2 vs league

FactorDALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.3%54.6%−0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)10.0%11.7%+2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.4%24.8%−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1950.205−0.3
Everything else−0.3

UTA118.1scored, +3.2 vs league

FactorUTALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.2%54.6%+1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%11.7%−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.1%24.8%+1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2060.205+0.0
Everything else+0.7
Defensive rating, last 10DAL118.0UTA116.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.0).

DAL118.0allowed, +3.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.8%54.6%−3.4
Turnovers (TOV%)11.9%11.7%+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.0%24.8%−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2100.205−0.1
Everything else+1.2

UTA116.3allowed, +1.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.9%54.6%−0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%11.7%−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.3%24.8%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1810.205+0.7
Everything else−0.2
Pace, last 10average 100.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DAL 101.7 and UTA 99.7 → average 100.7 (league 2023-24 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingDAL0.0UTA5.7

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-01 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

UTA5.7pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Taylor Hendricks5.715.36

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-01 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestDAL2 daysUTA2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DAL2days

Last played Dec 30 against GSW.

UTA2days

Last played Dec 30 against MIA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 30@GSW132–12249-8816-4018-2296130.7122.0100.5
Dec 28@MIN110–11840-9014-3316-191613108.9116.8101.0
Dec 27CLE110–11339-8810-3722-26107111.1113.099.5
Dec 25@PHX128–11445-8416-4422-30118126.7111.8101.5
Dec 23SAS144–11952-10023-4517-211211132.1108.2109.5
Dec 22@HOU96–12235-1017-4019-26111488.1113.0108.5
Dec 20LAC111–12039-9114-4319-27613118.1126.394.5
Dec 18@DEN104–13041-9213-389-191112106.1135.497.0
Dec 16@POR131–12048-9716-4719-211211126.0115.4104.0
Dec 14MIN101–11939-837-3216-18154100.0117.8101.0

UTA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 30MIA117–10943-9311-4120-28109112.5105.8103.5
Dec 28@NOP105–11236-8512-3921-251817109.4119.195.0
Dec 26@SAS130–11847-9516-4320-221413126.2113.5103.5
Dec 23@TOR126–11948-9117-3813-14118127.3121.498.5
Dec 21@DET119–11143-9411-3022-241215116.7109.9101.5
Dec 20@CLE116–12440-7813-3023-28166117.2126.598.5
Dec 18BKN125–10845-9114-3421-241412125.0109.199.5
Dec 16@SAC104–12538-8612-3716-21128105.1127.698.5
Dec 14@POR122–11449-9211-3313-14119128.4120.095.0
Dec 13NYK117–11343-9816-4215-211514113.6109.7103.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
53%
pregame chance the forecast gave UTA, the winner
UTA was the forecast favorite
38 pts
margin miss
forecast −1, actual +37 for UTA
534th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
16th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 0.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDALUTA
Final score90127
Field goals37–93 · 39.8%49–96 · 51.0%
Three-pointers11–40 · 27.5%12–44 · 27.3%
Free throws5–10 · 50.0%17–18 · 94.4%
Rebounds4153
Assists2837
Turnovers1612
Steals69
Blocks56

How the model does with these teams over time: Dallas Mavericks · Utah Jazz

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (UTA)−1+37+38
Total points235217−18
DAL points11890−28
UTA points117127+10

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
DAL26292411–90
UTA37253134–127

Recent form before this game

Dallas Mavericks

DateOpponentResult
Dec 30 at GSW W 132–122
Dec 28 at MIN L 110–118
Dec 27 vs CLE L 110–113
Dec 25 at PHX W 128–114
Dec 23 vs SAS W 144–119

Utah Jazz

DateOpponentResult
Dec 30 vs MIA W 117–109
Dec 28 at NOP L 105–112
Dec 26 at SAS W 130–118
Dec 23 at TOR W 126–119
Dec 21 at DET W 119–111

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Dec 6 2023-24 UTA at DAL UTA 97 – 147 DAL
Mar 7 2022-23 UTA at DAL UTA 116 – 120 DAL
Feb 6 2022-23 DAL at UTA DAL 124 – 111 UTA
Jan 28 2022-23 DAL at UTA DAL 100 – 108 UTA
Nov 2 2022-23 UTA at DAL UTA 100 – 103 DAL