2024-25 · Regular Season · Final
Detroit Pistons at Dallas Mavericks
Friday, March 21, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded
DET 4–2@DAL 2–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET Detroit Pistons | 123 | 117 | −6 |
| DAL Dallas Mavericks (home) | 111 | 123 | +12 |
Forecast: Detroit Pistons to win, 77% win probability, projected margin 12.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | DET | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1577 | 1428 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | −79 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +2.3 | −0.5 |
| Games played this season | 70 | 70 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 115.5 | 113.3 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 105.3 | 126.9 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 102.5 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 0.0 | 37.5 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingDET1577DAL1428
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
DET1577
- Ended last season at 1296 → started this one at 1347
- First 60 games: +217.4
- Last 10 games: +13.0
- WBKN115–94+4.6
- W@UTA134–106+12.0
- L@LAC115–123−9.0
- L@GSW110–115−5.3
- W@POR119–112+8.2
- WWAS123–103+2.6
- LWAS125–129−16.4
- LOKC107–113−4.4
- W@NOP127–81+16.9
- W@MIA116–113+3.8
DAL1428
- Ended last season at 1675 → started this one at 1631
- First 60 games: −96.6
- Last 10 games: −106.8
- LMIL117–132−17.7
- LSAC98–122−23.4
- L@MIL107–137−13.0
- LMEM111–122−10.3
- LPHX116–125−13.6
- W@SAS133–129+7.0
- L@SAS116–126−9.8
- L@HOU96–133−12.0
- LPHI125–130−11.4
- L@IND131–135−2.6
Season scoring marginDET+2.3DAL−0.5
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
DET+2.3
Scores 115.0, allows 112.7 over 70 games: +2.3 a game.
DAL−0.5
Scores 114.9, allows 115.4 over 70 games: −0.5 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10DET115.5DAL113.3
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.5).
DET115.5scored, +2.0 vs league
| Factor | DET | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.5% | 54.3% | +3.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.0% | 12.1% | −1.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 26.0% | 25.2% | +0.4 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.240 | 0.194 | +1.3 | |
| Everything else | −1.9 |
DAL113.3scored, −0.2 vs league
| Factor | DAL | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.0% | 54.3% | +1.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.3% | 12.1% | +2.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 15.3% | 25.2% | −4.4 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.202 | 0.194 | +0.2 | |
| Everything else | +0.4 |
Defensive rating, last 10DET105.3DAL126.9
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.5).
DET105.3allowed, −8.2 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 49.1% | 54.3% | +7.8 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.0% | 12.1% | +1.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 20.9% | 25.2% | +1.9 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.259 | 0.194 | −1.9 | |
| Everything else | −0.9 |
DAL126.9allowed, +13.4 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 60.5% | 54.3% | −9.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.2% | 12.1% | −2.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 30.3% | 25.2% | −2.3 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.199 | 0.194 | −0.1 | |
| Everything else | +1.1 |
Pace, last 10average 102.5
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
DET 103.3 and DAL 101.7 → average 102.5 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)
Rotation points missingDET0.0DAL37.5
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
DET0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2025-03-21 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.
DAL37.5pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | 19.0 | 23.9 | 2 |
| Danté Exum | 7.6 | 18.3 | 7 |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | 6.3 | 18.4 | 3 |
| Caleb Martin | 4.6 | 19.2 | 5 |
Source: official injury report, 2025-03-21 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.
RestDET2 daysDAL2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
DET2days
Last played Mar 19 against MIA.
DAL2days
Last played Mar 19 against IND.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
DET
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | @MIA | 116–113 | 46-91 | 9-23 | 15-18 | 12 | 13 | 117.2 | 114.1 | 99.0 |
| Mar 17 | @NOP | 127–81 | 46-84 | 13-35 | 22-29 | 13 | 10 | 128.3 | 81.0 | 99.5 |
| Mar 15 | OKC | 107–113 | 42-88 | 14-33 | 9-13 | 17 | 6 | 102.9 | 107.6 | 104.5 |
| Mar 13 | WAS | 125–129 | 39-85 | 10-30 | 37-43 | 12 | 9 | 115.7 | 118.3 | 108.5 |
| Mar 11 | WAS | 123–103 | 48-104 | 16-38 | 11-15 | 12 | 16 | 119.4 | 100.0 | 103.0 |
| Mar 9 | @POR | 119–112 | 43-87 | 9-28 | 24-32 | 13 | 12 | 113.3 | 107.7 | 104.5 |
| Mar 8 | @GSW | 110–115 | 39-85 | 5-23 | 27-36 | 20 | 13 | 104.8 | 108.5 | 105.5 |
| Mar 5 | @LAC | 115–123 | 45-86 | 11-35 | 14-19 | 12 | 5 | 119.8 | 128.1 | 96.0 |
| Mar 3 | @UTA | 134–106 | 51-92 | 11-41 | 21-28 | 13 | 8 | 122.9 | 98.1 | 108.5 |
| Mar 1 | BKN | 115–94 | 39-72 | 12-28 | 25-29 | 23 | 6 | 110.6 | 89.5 | 104.5 |
DAL
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | @IND | 131–135 | 48-88 | 11-27 | 24-32 | 12 | 2 | 123.6 | 127.4 | 106.0 |
| Mar 16 | PHI | 125–130 | 46-87 | 10-34 | 23-30 | 15 | 9 | 120.2 | 125.0 | 104.0 |
| Mar 14 | @HOU | 96–133 | 39-94 | 8-22 | 10-12 | 7 | 5 | 93.2 | 130.4 | 102.5 |
| Mar 12 | @SAS | 116–126 | 45-81 | 13-32 | 13-17 | 17 | 3 | 114.9 | 122.3 | 102.0 |
| Mar 10 | @SAS | 133–129 | 47-88 | 12-38 | 27-30 | 10 | 4 | 135.7 | 131.6 | 98.0 |
| Mar 9 | PHX | 116–125 | 43-88 | 17-42 | 13-16 | 6 | 5 | 117.2 | 126.3 | 99.0 |
| Mar 7 | MEM | 111–122 | 37-96 | 15-41 | 22-24 | 12 | 10 | 105.7 | 116.2 | 105.0 |
| Mar 5 | @MIL | 107–137 | 45-98 | 13-39 | 4-10 | 10 | 5 | 102.9 | 130.5 | 104.5 |
| Mar 3 | SAC | 98–122 | 35-77 | 7-26 | 21-24 | 13 | 3 | 105.4 | 129.8 | 93.5 |
| Mar 1 | MIL | 117–132 | 43-91 | 11-40 | 20-25 | 11 | 5 | 114.7 | 129.4 | 102.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2024-25 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | DET | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 117 | 123 |
| Field goals | 46–98 · 46.9% | 42–80 · 52.5% |
| Three-pointers | 11–31 · 35.5% | 12–34 · 35.3% |
| Free throws | 14–19 · 73.7% | 27–36 · 75.0% |
| Rebounds | 41 | 44 |
| Assists | 24 | 25 |
| Turnovers | 14 | 20 |
| Steals | 14 | 10 |
| Blocks | 5 | 7 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Detroit Pistons · Dallas Mavericks
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (DAL) | −12 | +6 | +18 |
| Total points | 234 | 240 | +6 |
| DET points | 123 | 117 | −6 |
| DAL points | 111 | 123 | +12 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31 2024-25 | DAL at DET | DAL 102 – 117 DET |
| Apr 12 2023-24 | DET at DAL | DET 107 – 89 DAL |
| Mar 9 2023-24 | DAL at DET | DAL 142 – 124 DET |
| Jan 30 2022-23 | DET at DAL | DET 105 – 111 DAL |
| Dec 1 2022-23 | DAL at DET | DAL 125 – 131 DET |