The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 23

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers

Friday, October 23, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

DAL 0–1@IND 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DAL 44 percent, IND 56 percent. DAL Mavericks 44% proj. 119 · final 121 IND Pacers · home 56% proj. 121 · final 105
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DAL Dallas Mavericks 119 121 +2
IND Indiana Pacers (home) 121 105 −16

Forecast: Indiana Pacers to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans IND

  • Home court+2.1 INDWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+1.1 DALElo IND 1383, DAL 1383; season margin IND −7.4, DAL −5.9.

Together: IND by 2, a 56% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

IND is 1–0, winning by 3 a game on average (scoring 123, allowing 120). Last season they were a −8 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 17% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting +3, ball security −1.3. Their defense lets opponents rebound 32% of their misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 2.7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −2.4, shooting defense +1.8.

DAL is 0–1, losing by 18 a game on average (scoring 110, allowing 128). Last season they were a −5 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +1.8, offensive rebounding −1.7. Their defense lets opponents shoot 56% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 2.9 points per 100 possessions.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors IND; left favors DAL.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −1.1, No playoff context +0.3, Player availability +0.2, Recent form +0.1, Rest and schedule −0.1, giving +1.5 for IND. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −1.1 No playoff context +0.3 Player availability +0.2 Recent form +0.1 Rest and schedule −0.1 Projected margin +1.5
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +1.5. The 56% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputDALINDEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13831383 −0.8
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +70 +0.3
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −5.9−7.4 +0.8
Games played this season 11 −1.4
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 110.2113.5 +0.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 118.3114.6 +0.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 103.6 −0.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.2
Rest days 22 −0.1
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueIND ptsDAL ptsMargin
Season scoring margin (away)-5.9+0.80−0.94+1.75
Elo rating (home)1382.5−0.28+0.88−1.16
Season scoring margin (home)-7.4−0.79+0.20−0.99
Games played (away)1.0+0.23+1.19−0.96
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)118.3+1.11+0.17+0.95
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.69−0.20+0.89
Combined pace, last 10103.6+4.52+5.38−0.86
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.14+0.55−0.69
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)110.2−0.09−0.55+0.46
Games played (home)1.0+0.47+0.88−0.41
Elo rating (away)1382.9+0.30−0.07+0.36
Elo gap incl. home court69.6−0.58−0.87+0.29
Home series wins0.0+0.28+0.03+0.26
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)113.5−0.34−0.10−0.24
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)114.6+0.16+0.33−0.17
Rest days (away)2.0−0.00+0.06−0.06
Series pressure0.0+0.04+0.01+0.03
Rest days (home)2.0−0.01+0.02−0.02
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDAL1383IND13830.5 pts toward DAL

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DAL1383

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1350 → started this one at 1388
  2. This season's 1 game: −4.9
  • L@HOU110–128−4.9

IND1383

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1332 → started this one at 1374
  2. This season's 1 game: +8.2
  • W@NOP123–120+8.2
Season scoring marginDAL−5.9IND−7.40.6 pts toward DAL

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DAL−5.9

Scores 110.0, allows 128.0 over 1 game: −18.0 a game.

5% this season (−18.0) + 95% last season (−5.3) = −5.9

IND−7.4

Scores 123.0, allows 120.0 over 1 game: +3.0 a game.

5% this season (+3.0) + 95% last season (−8.0) = −7.4

Offensive rating, last 10DAL110.2IND113.50.2 pts toward IND

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DAL110.2scored, −4.4 vs league

FactorDALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.4%54.5%−6.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.9%12.2%+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.3%26.1%−1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2430.210+0.9
Everything else+0.8

IND113.5scored, −1.1 vs league

FactorINDLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.6%54.5%+3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%12.2%−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)16.5%26.1%−4.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1730.210−1.1
Everything else+2.3
Defensive rating, last 10DAL118.3IND114.60.8 pts toward IND

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DAL118.3allowed, +3.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.4%54.5%−2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%12.2%−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.3%26.1%−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2240.210−0.4
Everything else+0.8

IND114.6allowed, −0.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.3%54.5%+1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)10.5%12.2%−2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)32.1%26.1%−2.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1850.210+0.7
Everything else+2.6
Pace, last 10average 103.60.9 pts toward DAL

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DAL 104.0 and IND 103.2 → average 103.6 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingDAL0.0IND0.00.2 pts toward IND

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

IND0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestDAL2 daysIND2 days0.1 pts toward DAL

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DAL2days

Last played Oct 21 against HOU.

IND2days

Last played Oct 21 against NOP.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21@HOU110–12841-8011-3817-26218111.1130.698.5
Apr 12CHI149–12852-10022-4923-271815134.2114.3111.5
Apr 10@SAS120–13945-9815-4015-19712121.2139.099.5
Apr 8@PHX107–11237-8913-3620-22810112.6117.995.0
Apr 7@LAC103–11635-1006-3327-2881497.2109.4106.0
Apr 5LAL134–12846-8814-3228-3678131.4124.3102.5
Apr 3ORL127–13844-9514-4225-311311115.5126.6109.5
Mar 31@MIL99–12334-9610-3621-28141090.8111.8109.5
Mar 30MIN94–12431-897-2925-3415891.3119.2103.5
Mar 27@POR100–9336-817-2421-3017696.289.4104.0

IND

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21@NOP123–12047-909-3020-29139117.1114.3105.0
Apr 12DET121–13341-9023-5416-20164115.2127.9104.5
Apr 10PHI94–10533-8814-5014-1621789.5101.0104.5
Apr 9@BKN123–9451-988-3113-18118118.390.4104.0
Apr 7MIN104–12435-739-2625-31224101.0119.2103.5
Apr 5@CLE108–11733-8617-4425-29107109.1118.299.0
Apr 3@CHA108–12943-9315-367-101110109.1130.399.0
Apr 1@CHI145–12658-10220-489-10136134.3114.5109.0
Mar 29MIA135–11853-9218-3911-13113129.8114.6103.5
Mar 27LAC113–11443-8716-3611-15208111.9115.2100.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
44%
pregame chance the forecast gave DAL, the winner
the forecast favored IND
18 pts
margin miss
forecast +2, actual −16 for IND
37th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
35th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.82 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDALIND
Final score121105
Field goals44–88 · 50.0%39–88 · 44.3%
Three-pointers14–34 · 41.2%7–32 · 21.9%
Free throws19–23 · 82.6%20–28 · 71.4%
Rebounds4642
Assists2827
Turnovers1419
Steals106
Blocks116

How the model does with these teams over time: Dallas Mavericks · Indiana Pacers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (IND)+2−16−18
Total points240226−14
DAL points119121+2
IND points121105−16

Recent form before this game

Dallas Mavericks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 at HOU L 110–128
Apr 12 vs CHI W 149–128
Apr 10 at SAS L 120–139
Apr 8 at PHX L 107–112
Apr 7 at LAC L 103–116

Indiana Pacers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 at NOP W 123–120
Apr 12 vs DET L 121–133
Apr 10 vs PHI L 94–105
Apr 9 at BKN W 123–94
Apr 7 vs MIN L 104–124

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 22 2025-26 DAL at IND DAL 134 – 130 IND
Oct 29 2025-26 IND at DAL IND 105 – 107 DAL
Mar 19 2024-25 DAL at IND DAL 131 – 135 IND
Nov 4 2024-25 IND at DAL IND 134 – 127 DAL
Mar 5 2023-24 IND at DAL IND 137 – 120 DAL