The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Dec 1

2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets

Monday, December 1, 2025 · tip-off 9:00 PM ET

DAL 0–1@DEN 0–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DAL 17 percent, DEN 83 percent. DAL Mavericks 17% proj. 112 · final 131 DEN Nuggets · home 83% proj. 126 · final 121
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DAL Dallas Mavericks 112 131 +19
DEN Denver Nuggets (home) 126 121 −5

Forecast: Denver Nuggets to win, 83% win probability, projected margin 14.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputDALDEN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13851658
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +343
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −4.9+9.4
Games played this season 2219
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 108.1126.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 112.6119.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 13.625.6
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDAL1385DEN1658

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DAL1385

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1432 → started this one at 1449
  2. First 12 games: −51.4
  3. Last 10 games: −12.8
  • LPHX114–123−9.2
  • LLAC127–133−6.4
  • WPOR138–133+8.9
  • L@MIN96–120−4.6
  • LNYK111–113−2.9
  • WNOP118–115+3.0
  • LMEM96–102−7.6
  • L@MIA102–106−2.0
  • L@LAL119–129−2.7
  • W@LAC114–110+10.7

DEN1658

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1620 → started this one at 1590
  2. First 9 games: +45.7
  3. Last 10 games: +22.3
  • W@SAC122–108+8.4
  • W@LAC130–116+10.3
  • W@MIN123–112+13.0
  • LCHI127–130−10.6
  • W@NOP125–118+2.3
  • W@HOU112–109+6.6
  • LSAC123–128−16.9
  • W@MEM125–115+6.6
  • LSAS136–139−10.1
  • W@PHX130–112+12.7
Season scoring marginDAL−4.9DEN+9.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DAL−4.9

Scores 110.7, allows 115.6 over 22 games: −4.9 a game.

DEN+9.4

Scores 124.8, allows 115.1 over 19 games: +9.7 a game.

95% this season (+9.7) + 5% last season (+2.6) = +9.4

Offensive rating, last 10DAL108.1DEN126.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

DAL108.1scored, −6.7 vs league

FactorDALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.8%54.5%−4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)13.3%12.5%−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)n/a26.2%–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2230.225−0.1
Everything else−1.5

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 2 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

DEN126.6scored, +11.9 vs league

FactorDENLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)60.4%54.5%+8.9
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.5%+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)n/a26.2%–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2580.225+0.9
Everything else+1.6

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 2 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Defensive rating, last 10DAL112.6DEN119.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

DAL112.6allowed, −2.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.1%54.5%+3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.5%−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)n/a26.2%–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2470.225−0.6
Everything else+0.5

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 2 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

DEN119.8allowed, +5.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.4%54.5%+0.0
Turnovers (TOV%)9.3%12.5%−4.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)n/a26.2%–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2080.225+0.5
Everything else−1.0

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 2 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Pace, last 10average 100.6

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DAL 102.0 and DEN 99.1 → average 100.6 (league 2025-26 to date: 101.0)

Rotation points missingDAL13.6DEN25.6

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DAL13.6pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Daniel Gafford10.126.08
Dereck Lively II3.516.24

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-01 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

DEN25.6pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Aaron Gordon16.626.55
Christian Braun9.022.92

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-01 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestDAL2 daysDEN2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DAL2days

Last played Nov 29 against LAC.

DEN2days

Last played Nov 29 against PHX.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 29@LAC114–11040-9011-3923-288–109.6104.8104.5
Nov 28@LAL119–12944-9114-3217-2011–124.0135.895.5
Nov 24@MIA102–10638-9712-4014-161615100.0105.0101.5
Nov 22MEM96–10235-9112-3614-161011103.2109.793.0
Nov 21NOP118–11540-8416-4322-282011111.3108.5106.0
Nov 19NYK111–11335-8516-4425-301710109.9109.7102.0
Nov 17@MIN96–12034-859-3019-31201088.9110.1108.5
Nov 16POR138–13348-9515-3427-401413123.2118.8101.4
Nov 14LAC127–13344-9910-3629-382211102.4106.4103.0
Nov 12PHX114–12343-8617-4711-17198108.6117.1105.0

DEN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 29@PHX130–11244-7622-3820-2116–139.8120.493.0
Nov 28SAS136–13948-9116-3924-3016–136.0136.3101.0
Nov 24@MEM125–11546-9122-4311-141414128.9117.397.5
Nov 22SAC123–12845-9214-3719-231311126.8133.396.5
Nov 21@HOU112–10940-7611-2921-271411119.1116.094.0
Nov 19@NOP125–11846-8311-3122-27209116.8109.3107.5
Nov 17CHI127–13046-9714-3621-25813119.8125.0105.0
Nov 15@MIN123–11239-8314-2931-381210119.4109.8102.5
Nov 12@LAC130–11644-8413-3429-351111134.0118.497.5
Nov 11@SAC122–10844-8613-3321-271215125.8112.596.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games
17%
pregame chance the forecast gave DAL, the winner
the forecast favored DEN
24 pts
margin miss
forecast +14, actual −10 for DEN
9th
most surprising result of 2025-26
of 1,309 graded games
125th
largest margin miss of 2025-26
outcome surprise 1.78 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDALDEN
Final score131121
Field goals53–95 · 55.8%47–99 · 47.5%
Three-pointers16–31 · 51.6%12–37 · 32.4%
Free throws9–14 · 64.3%15–18 · 83.3%
Rebounds4347
Assists3537
Turnovers87
Steals45
Blocks45

How the model does with these teams over time: Dallas Mavericks · Denver Nuggets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (DEN)+14−10−24
Total points238252+14
DAL points112131+19
DEN points126121−5

Recent form before this game

Dallas Mavericks

DateOpponentResult
Nov 29 at LAC W 114–110
Nov 28 at LAL L 119–129
Nov 24 at MIA L 102–106
Nov 22 vs MEM L 96–102
Nov 21 vs NOP W 118–115

Denver Nuggets

DateOpponentResult
Nov 29 at PHX W 130–112
Nov 28 vs SAS L 136–139
Nov 24 at MEM W 125–115
Nov 22 vs SAC L 123–128
Nov 21 at HOU W 112–109

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 14 2024-25 DEN at DAL DEN 118 – 99 DAL
Jan 12 2024-25 DEN at DAL DEN 112 – 101 DAL
Nov 22 2024-25 DAL at DEN DAL 123 – 120 DEN
Nov 10 2024-25 DAL at DEN DAL 120 – 122 DEN
Mar 17 2023-24 DEN at DAL DEN 105 – 107 DAL