2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs

Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · tip-off 9:30 PM ET

DAL 4–3@SAS 5–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
DAL Dallas Mavericks	108	111	+3
SAS San Antonio Spurs (home)	117	112	−5

Forecast: San Antonio Spurs to win, 75% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

75%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner

SAS was the forecast favorite

8 pts

margin miss

forecast +9, actual +1 for SAS

122nd

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

79th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.29 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	DAL	SAS
Final score	111	112
Field goals	39–102 · 38.2%	37–95 · 38.9%
Three-pointers	14–37 · 37.8%	5–36 · 13.9%
Free throws	19–26 · 73.1%	33–39 · 84.6%
Rebounds	50	61
Assists	29	20
Turnovers	8	10
Steals	5	6
Blocks	4	10

How the model does with these teams over time: Dallas Mavericks · San Antonio Spurs

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (SAS)	+9	+1	−8
Total points	225	223	−2
DAL points	108	111	+3
SAS points	117	112	−5

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-04 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.