2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets

Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · tip-off 8:30 PM ET

DAL 0–0@HOU 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
DAL Dallas Mavericks	112	110	−2
HOU Houston Rockets (home)	120	128	+8

Forecast: Houston Rockets to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans HOU

Home court+2.1 HOUWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
Team strength+4.5 HOUElo HOU 1566, DAL 1388; season margin HOU +4.7, DAL −5.3.
Recent form+1.2 HOULast 10 games, per 100 possessions: HOU scores 112.5 and allows 108.6; DAL scores 112.0 and allows 118.6.

Together: HOU by 8, a 72% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

HOU hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a +5 team. Their offense shoots 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +4. Their defense forces turnovers on 14.3% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding +1.6, free throws allowed −1.1.

DAL hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a −5 team. Their offense shoots 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +4, offensive rebounding −1.9. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors HOU; left favors DAL.

Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +8.3. The 72% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated

Every input the model received, with its effect

Input	DAL	HOU	Effect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1388	1566	+0.6
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+248		+5.0
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−5.3	+4.7	+1.4
Games played this season	0	0	−2.5
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	112.0	112.5	−0.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	118.6	108.6	+1.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.1		+0.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0	−0.1
Rest days	5	5	+0.2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No	+0.0

All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team

Input	Value	HOU pts	DAL pts	Margin
Elo gap incl. home court	248.4	+1.88	−3.14	+5.02
Games played (away)	0.0	+0.26	+1.91	−1.65
Season scoring margin (away)	-5.3	+0.60	−0.38	+0.98
Rotation points missing (away)	0.0	−0.41	+0.49	−0.90
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)	118.6	+1.04	+0.16	+0.87
Games played (home)	0.0	+0.62	+1.46	−0.84
Rotation points missing (home)	0.0	+0.65	−0.19	+0.83
Season scoring margin (home)	4.7	+0.20	−0.21	+0.41
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)	108.6	−0.56	−0.95	+0.40
Elo rating (away)	1387.8	+0.30	−0.06	+0.36
Rest days (home)	5.0	+0.07	−0.25	+0.32
Home series wins	0.0	+0.28	+0.02	+0.25
Elo rating (home)	1566.2	+0.00	−0.21	+0.22
Combined pace, last 10	100.1	+1.37	+1.17	+0.20
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)	112.0	−0.08	+0.06	−0.14
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)	112.5	−0.17	−0.08	−0.09
Rest days (away)	5.0	−0.24	−0.16	−0.09
Back-to-back (home)	0	+0.03	−0.01	+0.03
Elimination game	0	±0.00	−0.00	+0.00
Series pressure	0.0	+0.03	+0.03	−0.00
Back-to-back (away)	0	±0.00	±0.00	±0.00
Baseline (average output)		114.4	112.4	+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDAL1388HOU15665.6 pts toward HOU

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DAL1388

Ended last season at 1350 → started this one at 1388
No games played yet this season.

HOU1566

Ended last season at 1588 → started this one at 1566
No games played yet this season.

Season scoring marginDAL−5.3HOU+4.71.1 pts toward DAL

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DAL−5.3

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (−5.3) = −5.3

HOU+4.7

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (+4.7) = +4.7

Offensive rating, last 10DAL112.0HOU112.50.2 pts toward DAL

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DAL112.0scored, −2.6 vs league

Factor	DAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.1%	54.5%	−6.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.4%	12.2%	+4.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.9%	26.1%	−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.250	0.210	+1.1
Everything else			+0.9

HOU112.5scored, −2.1 vs league

Factor	HOU	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.0%	54.5%	−6.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.6%	12.2%	+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	35.4%	26.1%	+4.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.210	0.210	+0.0
Everything else			−0.4

Defensive rating, last 10DAL118.6HOU108.61.3 pts toward HOU

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DAL118.6allowed, +4.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.9%	54.5%	−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.5%	12.2%	−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.7%	26.1%	+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.229	0.210	−0.5
Everything else			+0.9

HOU108.6allowed, −6.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.8%	54.5%	+1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.3%	12.2%	+3.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.4%	26.1%	+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.249	0.210	−1.1
Everything else			+1.4

Pace, last 10average 100.10.2 pts toward HOU

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DAL 104.6 and HOU 95.7 → average 100.1 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingDAL0.0HOU0.00.1 pts toward DAL

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

HOU0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestDAL5 daysHOU5 days0.3 pts toward HOU

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DAL5days

Last played Apr 12 against CHI (192 days, capped at 5).

HOU5days

Last played May 1 against LAL (173 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 12	CHI	149–128	52-100	22-49	23-27	18	15	134.2	114.3	111.5
Apr 10	@SAS	120–139	45-98	15-40	15-19	7	12	121.2	139.0	99.5
Apr 8	@PHX	107–112	37-89	13-36	20-22	8	10	112.6	117.9	95.0
Apr 7	@LAC	103–116	35-100	6-33	27-28	8	14	97.2	109.4	106.0
Apr 5	LAL	134–128	46-88	14-32	28-36	7	8	131.4	124.3	102.5
Apr 3	ORL	127–138	44-95	14-42	25-31	13	11	115.5	126.6	109.5
Mar 31	@MIL	99–123	34-96	10-36	21-28	14	10	90.8	111.8	109.5
Mar 30	MIN	94–124	31-89	7-29	25-34	15	8	91.3	119.2	103.5
Mar 27	@POR	100–93	36-81	7-24	21-30	17	6	96.2	89.4	104.0
Mar 25	@DEN	135–142	48-97	12-35	27-34	4	10	129.8	134.0	105.0

HOU

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
May 1	LAL	78–98	28-80	5-28	17-24	11	8	83.9	106.5	92.5
Apr 29	@LAL	99–93	33-75	14-40	19-25	10	6	110.0	103.3	90.0
Apr 26	LAL	115–96	39-81	12-30	25-31	13	11	122.3	103.2	93.5
Apr 24	LAL	108–112	40-98	11-39	17-23	15	18	104.9	105.7	94.6
Apr 21	@LAL	94–101	36-89	7-29	15-19	15	17	105.6	112.2	89.5
Apr 18	@LAL	98–107	35-93	11-33	17-25	13	21	104.3	113.8	94.0
Apr 12	MEM	132–101	48-105	14-49	22-30	11	19	128.2	98.1	103.0
Apr 10	MIN	132–136	53-87	4-19	22-28	12	11	133.3	136.0	99.5
Apr 9	PHI	113–102	42-93	11-32	18-26	15	16	110.8	99.0	102.5
Apr 7	@PHX	119–105	45-100	14-38	15-16	17	24	121.4	108.2	97.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

72%

pregame chance the forecast gave HOU, the winner

HOU was the forecast favorite

10 pts

margin miss

forecast +8, actual +18 for HOU

109th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

63rd

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.33 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	DAL	HOU
Final score	110	128
Field goals	41–80 · 51.3%	47–88 · 53.4%
Three-pointers	11–38 · 28.9%	16–36 · 44.4%
Free throws	17–26 · 65.4%	18–25 · 72.0%
Rebounds	33	42
Assists	20	32
Turnovers	21	15
Steals	12	11
Blocks	4	2

How the model does with these teams over time: Dallas Mavericks · Houston Rockets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (HOU)	+8	+18	+10
Total points	232	238	+6
DAL points	112	110	−2
HOU points	120	128	+8

Recent form before this game