2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Chicago Bulls at Dallas Mavericks
Sunday, April 12, 2026 · tip-off 8:30 PM ET
CHI 1–4@DAL 3–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI Chicago Bulls | 117 | 128 | +11 |
| DAL Dallas Mavericks (home) | 116 | 149 | +33 |
Forecast: Chicago Bulls to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | CHI | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1352 | 1337 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +54 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −5.0 | −5.6 |
| Games played this season | 81 | 82 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 109.4 | 110.2 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 120.0 | 119.1 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 105.2 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 49.6 | 67.0 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingCHI1352DAL1337
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
CHI1352
- Ended last season at 1537 → started this one at 1528
- First 71 games: −141.9
- Last 10 games: −33.7
- L@PHI137–157−7.8
- L@OKC113–131−2.0
- L@MEM124–125−3.4
- L@SAS114–129−1.5
- LIND126–145−24.2
- L@NYK96–136−4.7
- LPHX110–120−6.6
- W@WAS129–98+20.6
- W@WAS119–108+8.6
- LORL103–127−12.7
DAL1337
- Ended last season at 1432 → started this one at 1449
- First 72 games: −89.6
- Last 10 games: −22.6
- LGSW131–137−7.1
- L@DEN135–142−1.9
- W@POR100–93+16.0
- LMIN94–124−13.8
- L@MIL99–123−15.1
- LORL127–138−8.0
- WLAL134–128+14.2
- L@LAC103–116−3.3
- L@PHX107–112−2.3
- L@SAS120–139−1.3
Season scoring marginCHI−5.0DAL−5.6
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
CHI−5.0
Scores 116.2, allows 121.2 over 81 games: −5.0 a game.
DAL−5.6
Scores 113.8, allows 119.4 over 82 games: −5.6 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10CHI109.4DAL110.2
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).
CHI109.4scored, −5.4 vs league
| Factor | CHI | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 52.9% | 54.7% | −2.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.4% | 12.2% | −1.7 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 26.9% | 26.0% | +0.4 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.225 | 0.209 | +0.4 | |
| Everything else | −1.8 |
DAL110.2scored, −4.6 vs league
| Factor | DAL | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 50.6% | 54.7% | −6.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.8% | 12.2% | +3.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 19.7% | 26.0% | −2.8 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.242 | 0.209 | +0.9 | |
| Everything else | +0.1 |
Defensive rating, last 10CHI120.0DAL119.1
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).
CHI120.0allowed, +5.2 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.9% | 54.7% | −3.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.9% | 12.2% | −1.9 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 23.4% | 26.0% | +1.2 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.183 | 0.209 | +0.7 | |
| Everything else | −1.9 |
DAL119.1allowed, +4.3 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 57.4% | 54.7% | −4.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.2% | 12.2% | +0.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 27.5% | 26.0% | −0.7 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.234 | 0.209 | −0.7 | |
| Everything else | +1.1 |
Pace, last 10average 105.2
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
CHI 106.7 and DAL 103.8 → average 105.2 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)
Rotation points missingCHI49.6DAL67.0
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
CHI49.6pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matas Buzelis | 16.6 | 29.9 | 7 |
| Josh Giddey | 12.2 | 31.9 | 5 |
| Isaac Okoro | 11.0 | 26.9 | 8 |
| Guerschon Yabusele | 9.9 | 24.9 | 8 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-04-12 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
DAL67.0pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Williams | 15.0 | 23.8 | 6 |
| Naji Marshall | 14.2 | 28.9 | 6 |
| Marvin Bagley III | 13.4 | 20.2 | 7 |
| Daniel Gafford | 12.4 | 21.4 | 5 |
| P.J. Washington | 12.0 | 30.5 | 4 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-04-12 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.
RestCHI2 daysDAL2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
CHI2days
Last played Apr 10 against ORL.
DAL2days
Last played Apr 10 against SAS.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
CHI
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10 | ORL | 103–127 | 38-87 | 10-39 | 17-26 | 20 | 10 | 95.4 | 118.7 | 107.5 |
| Apr 9 | @WAS | 119–108 | 43-93 | 9-30 | 24-25 | 15 | 13 | 111.2 | 100.9 | 107.0 |
| Apr 7 | @WAS | 129–98 | 46-94 | 15-45 | 22-27 | 13 | 9 | 119.4 | 89.9 | 108.5 |
| Apr 5 | PHX | 110–120 | 41-91 | 10-39 | 18-23 | 18 | 14 | 105.8 | 117.6 | 103.0 |
| Apr 3 | @NYK | 96–136 | 35-81 | 11-35 | 15-26 | 16 | 9 | 96.0 | 136.0 | 100.0 |
| Apr 1 | IND | 126–145 | 47-97 | 13-39 | 19-26 | 20 | 12 | 114.5 | 134.3 | 109.0 |
| Mar 30 | @SAS | 114–129 | 43-93 | 13-44 | 15-21 | 10 | 7 | 111.8 | 125.2 | 102.5 |
| Mar 28 | @MEM | 124–125 | 41-82 | 10-33 | 32-43 | 23 | 10 | 110.7 | 112.6 | 111.5 |
| Mar 27 | @OKC | 113–131 | 41-98 | 15-47 | 16-21 | 12 | 10 | 107.6 | 126.0 | 104.5 |
| Mar 25 | @PHI | 137–157 | 48-98 | 15-47 | 26-31 | 13 | 10 | 121.2 | 138.9 | 113.0 |
DAL
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10 | @SAS | 120–139 | 45-98 | 15-40 | 15-19 | 7 | 12 | 121.2 | 139.0 | 99.5 |
| Apr 8 | @PHX | 107–112 | 37-89 | 13-36 | 20-22 | 8 | 10 | 112.6 | 117.9 | 95.0 |
| Apr 7 | @LAC | 103–116 | 35-100 | 6-33 | 27-28 | 8 | 14 | 97.2 | 109.4 | 106.0 |
| Apr 5 | LAL | 134–128 | 46-88 | 14-32 | 28-36 | 7 | 8 | 131.4 | 124.3 | 102.5 |
| Apr 3 | ORL | 127–138 | 44-95 | 14-42 | 25-31 | 13 | 11 | 115.5 | 126.6 | 109.5 |
| Mar 31 | @MIL | 99–123 | 34-96 | 10-36 | 21-28 | 14 | 10 | 90.8 | 111.8 | 109.5 |
| Mar 30 | MIN | 94–124 | 31-89 | 7-29 | 25-34 | 15 | 8 | 91.3 | 119.2 | 103.5 |
| Mar 27 | @POR | 100–93 | 36-81 | 7-24 | 21-30 | 17 | 6 | 96.2 | 89.4 | 104.0 |
| Mar 25 | @DEN | 135–142 | 48-97 | 12-35 | 27-34 | 4 | 10 | 129.8 | 134.0 | 105.0 |
| Mar 23 | GSW | 131–137 | 51-87 | 16-36 | 13-20 | 21 | 5 | 115.9 | 119.1 | 103.2 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | CHI | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 128 | 149 |
| Field goals | 52–106 · 49.1% | 52–100 · 52.0% |
| Three-pointers | 10–38 · 26.3% | 22–49 · 44.9% |
| Free throws | 14–19 · 73.7% | 23–27 · 85.2% |
| Rebounds | 42 | 57 |
| Assists | 30 | 35 |
| Turnovers | 13 | 18 |
| Steals | 12 | 10 |
| Blocks | 3 | 5 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Chicago Bulls · Dallas Mavericks
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (DAL) | −1 | +21 | +22 |
| Total points | 233 | 277 | +44 |
| CHI points | 117 | 128 | +11 |
| DAL points | 116 | 149 | +33 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 10 2025-26 | DAL at CHI | DAL 107 – 125 CHI |
| Mar 29 2024-25 | DAL at CHI | DAL 120 – 119 CHI |
| Nov 6 2024-25 | CHI at DAL | CHI 99 – 119 DAL |
| Mar 11 2023-24 | DAL at CHI | DAL 127 – 92 CHI |
| Nov 1 2023-24 | CHI at DAL | CHI 105 – 114 DAL |