The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jan 9

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Memphis Grizzlies at Dallas Mavericks

Tuesday, January 9, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

MEM 1–0@DAL 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MEM 30 percent, DAL 70 percent. MEM Grizzlies 30% proj. 112 · final 120 DAL Mavericks · home 70% proj. 120 · final 103
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MEM Memphis Grizzlies 112 120 +8
DAL Dallas Mavericks (home) 120 103 −17

Forecast: Dallas Mavericks to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputMEMDAL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14471502
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +125
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −5.7+2.2
Games played this season 3637
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 110.0115.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 113.7111.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 102.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 31.020.3
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMEM1447DAL1502

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MEM1447

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1557 → started this one at 1543
  2. First 26 games: −121.1
  3. Last 10 games: +25.3
  • WIND116–103+11.7
  • W@ATL125–119+12.1
  • W@NOP116–115+7.1
  • L@DEN105–142−7.9
  • L@LAC106–117−4.7
  • LSAC92–123−22.0
  • WSAS106–98+3.7
  • LTOR111–116−7.7
  • W@LAL127–113+20.6
  • W@PHX121–115+12.4

DAL1502

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1437 → started this one at 1453
  2. First 27 games: +34.8
  3. Last 10 games: +14.9
  • L@HOU96–122−15.0
  • WSAS144–119+6.0
  • W@PHX128–114+17.2
  • LCLE110–113−6.1
  • L@MIN110–118−3.8
  • W@GSW132–122+14.9
  • L@UTA90–127−25.3
  • WPOR126–97+8.1
  • WPOR139–103+8.8
  • WMIN115–108+10.1
Season scoring marginMEM−5.7DAL+2.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MEM−5.7

Scores 107.8, allows 113.5 over 36 games: −5.7 a game.

DAL+2.2

Scores 119.0, allows 116.8 over 37 games: +2.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MEM110.0DAL115.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.0).

MEM110.0scored, −5.1 vs league

FactorMEMLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.6%54.7%−1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%11.7%−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.4%24.6%−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2050.205+0.0
Everything else−1.1

DAL115.5scored, +0.4 vs league

FactorDALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.5%54.7%+1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.8%11.7%+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.8%24.6%−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1900.205−0.4
Everything else−0.4
Defensive rating, last 10MEM113.7DAL111.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.0).

MEM113.7allowed, −1.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.5%54.7%+0.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%11.7%−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.5%24.6%+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1800.205+0.7
Everything else−0.7

DAL111.0allowed, −4.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.1%54.7%+2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%11.7%+2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.4%24.6%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1820.205+0.7
Everything else−0.7
Pace, last 10average 102.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MEM 101.2 and DAL 103.2 → average 102.2 (league 2023-24 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMEM31.0DAL20.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MEM31.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Ja Morant24.035.48
Santi Aldama7.019.19

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-09 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

DAL20.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Danté Exum12.328.06
Dereck Lively II8.024.96

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-09 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

RestMEM2 daysDAL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MEM2days

Last played Jan 7 against PHX.

DAL2days

Last played Jan 7 against MIN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MEM

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 7@PHX121–11543-9717-4918-241715114.2108.5106.0
Jan 5@LAL127–11344-8223-4516-20176124.5109.7102.5
Jan 3TOR111–11640-9415-4216-19109106.7113.7103.0
Jan 2SAS106–9837-8012-3820-25158108.2100.098.0
Dec 31SAC92–12330-8212-4020-288192.0123.0100.0
Dec 29@LAC106–11738-8713-4017-20123103.9115.8101.5
Dec 28@DEN105–14237-8913-3518-251111104.0140.6101.0
Dec 26@NOP116–11539-9011-4627-32178102.7102.7101.9
Dec 23@ATL125–11950-9711-3314-221115125.0119.0100.0
Dec 21IND116–10343-8416-3514-21188118.4104.098.5

DAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 7MIN115–10843-9515-4014-201115121.1113.795.0
Jan 5POR139–10356-9617-3810-15178127.594.5109.0
Jan 3POR126–9742-8413-3029-41117121.293.3104.0
Jan 1@UTA90–12737-9311-405-1016887.4123.3103.0
Dec 30@GSW132–12249-8816-4018-2296130.7122.0100.5
Dec 28@MIN110–11840-9014-3316-191613108.9116.8101.0
Dec 27CLE110–11339-8810-3722-26107111.1113.099.5
Dec 25@PHX128–11445-8416-4422-30118126.7111.8101.5
Dec 23SAS144–11952-10023-4517-211211132.1108.2109.5
Dec 22@HOU96–12235-1017-4019-26111488.1113.0108.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
30%
pregame chance the forecast gave MEM, the winner
the forecast favored DAL
25 pts
margin miss
forecast +8, actual −17 for DAL
30th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
100th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 1.20 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMEMDAL
Final score120103
Field goals44–91 · 48.4%36–82 · 43.9%
Three-pointers14–37 · 37.8%9–27 · 33.3%
Free throws18–21 · 85.7%22–27 · 81.5%
Rebounds5433
Assists2720
Turnovers1612
Steals79
Blocks34

How the model does with these teams over time: Memphis Grizzlies · Dallas Mavericks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (DAL)+8−17−25
Total points232223−9
MEM points112120+8
DAL points120103−17

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
MEM29393517–120
DAL22313020–103

Recent form before this game

Memphis Grizzlies

DateOpponentResult
Jan 7 at PHX W 121–115
Jan 5 at LAL W 127–113
Jan 3 vs TOR L 111–116
Jan 2 vs SAS W 106–98
Dec 31 vs SAC L 92–123

Dallas Mavericks

DateOpponentResult
Jan 7 vs MIN W 115–108
Jan 5 vs POR W 139–103
Jan 3 vs POR W 126–97
Jan 1 at UTA L 90–127
Dec 30 at GSW W 132–122

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Dec 11 2023-24 DAL at MEM DAL 120 – 113 MEM
Dec 1 2023-24 MEM at DAL MEM 108 – 94 DAL
Oct 30 2023-24 DAL at MEM DAL 125 – 110 MEM
Mar 20 2022-23 DAL at MEM DAL 108 – 112 MEM
Mar 13 2022-23 MEM at DAL MEM 104 – 88 DAL