2026-27 · Regular Season · Final
Brooklyn Nets at Dallas Mavericks
Sunday, November 8, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET
BKN 2–7@DAL 5–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| BKN Brooklyn Nets | 109 | 93 | −16 |
| DAL Dallas Mavericks (home) | 118 | 130 | +12 |
Forecast: Dallas Mavericks to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 9.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhy the model leans DAL
- Home court+2.1 DALWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
- Team strength+4.2 DALElo DAL 1431, BKN 1313; season margin DAL −2.4, BKN −8.1.
- Recent form+2.3 DALLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: DAL scores 114.4 and allows 111.5; BKN scores 106.4 and allows 115.0.
- Player availability+0.6 DALBKN without Mikel Brown Jr. (13 ppg) and Egor Dëmin (8 ppg).
Together: DAL by 9, a 74% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.
Team-by-team notes from the box scores
DAL is 5–4, winning by 1 a game on average (scoring 112, allowing 111). Last season they were a −5 team, which still counts for 55% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 54% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 1.6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +1.1. Their defense holds opponents to 52% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 1.9 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −1.2.
BKN is 2–7, losing by 6 a game on average (scoring 108, allowing 114). Last season they were a −10 team, which still counts for 55% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −2.3, offensive rebounding −1.4. Their defense lets opponents shoot 55% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding +1.6, free throws allowed −1.4. Mikel Brown Jr. and Egor Dëmin are out (21 rotation points a game combined). They're on the second night of a back-to-back.
Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.
How the projected margin was built
Points of home margin. Right of zero favors DAL; left favors BKN.
Every input the model received, with its effect
| Input | BKN | DAL | Effect, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1313 | 1431 | +0.6 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +188 | +3.1 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −8.1 | −2.4 | +1.2 |
| Games played this season | 9 | 9 | −0.7 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 106.4 | 114.4 | +1.6 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 115.0 | 111.5 | +0.4 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 100.5 | +0.3 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 20.6 | 0.0 | +0.6 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 | +0.0 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | Yes | No | +0.0 |
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
| Input | Value | DAL pts | BKN pts | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo gap incl. home court | 188.2 | +1.56 | −1.50 | +3.06 |
| Season scoring margin (away) | -8.1 | +0.49 | −1.10 | +1.58 |
| Offensive rating, last 10 (away) | 106.4 | −0.07 | −1.48 | +1.41 |
| Rotation points missing (home) | 0.0 | +0.69 | −0.13 | +0.83 |
| Defensive rating, last 10 (home) | 111.5 | −0.56 | −1.37 | +0.81 |
| Elo rating (away) | 1312.9 | +0.37 | −0.14 | +0.51 |
| Games played (away) | 9.0 | −0.08 | +0.39 | −0.46 |
| Defensive rating, last 10 (away) | 115.0 | −0.36 | +0.04 | −0.40 |
| Season scoring margin (home) | -2.4 | −0.16 | +0.21 | −0.37 |
| Combined pace, last 10 | 100.5 | +1.65 | +1.35 | +0.30 |
| Rotation points missing (away) | 20.6 | +0.14 | +0.40 | −0.26 |
| Games played (home) | 9.0 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.22 |
| Home series wins | 0.0 | +0.23 | +0.04 | +0.19 |
| Offensive rating, last 10 (home) | 114.4 | +0.08 | −0.08 | +0.16 |
| Elo rating (home) | 1431.2 | −0.05 | −0.14 | +0.10 |
| Series pressure | 0.0 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.03 |
| Rest days (home) | 2.0 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 |
| Back-to-back (home) | 0 | +0.00 | ±0.00 | +0.00 |
| Elimination game | 0 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 |
| Rest days (away) | 1.0 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 |
| Back-to-back (away) | 1 | ±0.00 | ±0.00 | ±0.00 |
| Baseline (average output) | 114.4 | 112.4 | +2.07 |
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingBKN1313DAL14313.7 pts toward DAL
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
BKN1313
- Ended last season at 1253 → started this one at 1315
- This season's 9 games: −2.1
- LCHA103–110−3.0
- L@CLE121–125−1.3
- LIND109–136−21.5
- L@BOS124–125−0.6
- LDET94–110−3.9
- W@IND98–90+14.6
- L@NYK90–103−1.3
- WCHA114–104+16.3
- L@ATL121–124−1.4
DAL1431
- Ended last season at 1350 → started this one at 1388
- This season's 9 games: +43.4
- L@HOU110–128−4.9
- W@IND121–105+17.8
- LSAS106–122−5.7
- W@MIA113–109+10.3
- WOKC120–96+36.4
- WHOU116–111+9.8
- LSAC100–115−24.4
- L@SAS111–112−0.8
- WUTA112–100+4.9
Season scoring marginBKN−8.1DAL−2.40.5 pts toward DAL
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
BKN−8.1
Scores 108.2, allows 114.1 over 9 games: −5.9 a game.
45% this season (−5.9) + 55% last season (−10.0) = −8.1
DAL−2.4
Scores 112.1, allows 110.9 over 9 games: +1.2 a game.
45% this season (+1.2) + 55% last season (−5.3) = −2.4
Offensive rating, last 10BKN106.4DAL114.41.6 pts toward DAL
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).
BKN106.4scored, −5.7 vs league
| Factor | BKN | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 51.2% | 53.2% | −3.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 14.9% | 13.2% | −2.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 24.2% | 27.2% | −1.4 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.256 | 0.225 | +0.9 | |
| Everything else | +0.1 |
DAL114.4scored, +2.3 vs league
| Factor | DAL | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.3% | 53.2% | +1.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.2% | 13.2% | −0.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 29.6% | 27.2% | +1.1 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.205 | 0.225 | −0.6 | |
| Everything else | +0.2 |
Defensive rating, last 10BKN115.0DAL111.50.4 pts toward DAL
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).
BKN115.0allowed, +2.9 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.5% | 53.2% | −3.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.4% | 13.2% | +0.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 23.6% | 27.2% | +1.6 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.273 | 0.225 | −1.4 | |
| Everything else | +0.0 |
DAL111.5allowed, −0.6 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 51.9% | 53.2% | +1.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.6% | 13.2% | −0.8 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 29.9% | 27.2% | −1.2 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.192 | 0.225 | +0.9 | |
| Everything else | −0.2 |
Pace, last 10average 100.50.3 pts toward DAL
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
BKN 99.9 and DAL 101.0 → average 100.5 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.4)
Rotation points missingBKN20.6DAL0.00.6 pts toward DAL
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
BKN20.6pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Brown Jr. | 12.9 | 23.2 | 7 |
| Egor Dëmin | 7.8 | 21.8 | 4 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-11-08 21:00 ET. 11 rotation players.
DAL0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2026-11-08 21:00 ET. 11 rotation players.
RestBKN1 daysDAL2 daysno effect on the margin
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
BKN1day, back-to-back
Last played Nov 7 against ATL.
DAL2days
Last played Nov 6 against UTA.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
BKN
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | @ATL | 121–124 | 43-89 | 14-42 | 21-29 | 22 | 15 | 113.1 | 115.9 | 107.0 |
| Nov 4 | CHA | 114–104 | 40-79 | 14-37 | 20-28 | 11 | 5 | 121.3 | 110.6 | 94.0 |
| Nov 2 | @NYK | 90–103 | 29-76 | 13-38 | 19-27 | 13 | 12 | 98.9 | 114.4 | 90.5 |
| Nov 1 | @IND | 98–90 | 30-73 | 13-39 | 25-31 | 15 | 7 | 106.5 | 97.8 | 92.0 |
| Oct 30 | DET | 94–110 | 31-77 | 11-37 | 21-26 | 23 | 9 | 92.2 | 108.9 | 101.5 |
| Oct 27 | @BOS | 124–125 | 45-97 | 17-50 | 17-22 | 15 | 12 | 111.7 | 112.6 | 100.5 |
| Oct 25 | IND | 109–136 | 35-86 | 13-39 | 26-37 | 15 | 10 | 103.8 | 129.5 | 105.0 |
| Oct 24 | @CLE | 121–125 | 39-98 | 20-49 | 23-27 | 18 | 18 | 113.1 | 116.8 | 107.0 |
| Oct 21 | CHA | 103–110 | 36-80 | 12-31 | 19-25 | 22 | 11 | 102.0 | 107.8 | 101.5 |
| Apr 12 | @TOR | 101–136 | 35-86 | 9-34 | 22-29 | 15 | 6 | 101.0 | 136.0 | 100.0 |
DAL
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | UTA | 112–100 | 39-93 | 9-32 | 25-31 | 15 | 21 | 109.8 | 99.0 | 101.5 |
| Nov 4 | @SAS | 111–112 | 39-102 | 14-37 | 19-26 | 8 | 18 | 112.1 | 114.3 | 98.5 |
| Nov 2 | SAC | 100–115 | 32-78 | 7-33 | 29-35 | 16 | 10 | 103.1 | 119.8 | 96.5 |
| Oct 30 | HOU | 116–111 | 42-81 | 12-33 | 20-27 | 17 | 12 | 116.0 | 109.9 | 100.5 |
| Oct 28 | OKC | 120–96 | 46-97 | 16-45 | 12-15 | 9 | 15 | 122.4 | 98.0 | 98.0 |
| Oct 26 | @MIA | 113–109 | 43-94 | 14-46 | 13-14 | 16 | 13 | 110.8 | 105.8 | 102.5 |
| Oct 24 | SAS | 106–122 | 45-87 | 11-28 | 5-8 | 18 | 8 | 103.9 | 118.4 | 102.5 |
| Oct 23 | @IND | 121–105 | 44-88 | 14-34 | 19-23 | 14 | 11 | 121.0 | 105.0 | 100.0 |
| Oct 21 | @HOU | 110–128 | 41-80 | 11-38 | 17-26 | 21 | 8 | 111.1 | 130.6 | 98.5 |
| Apr 12 | CHI | 149–128 | 52-100 | 22-49 | 23-27 | 18 | 15 | 134.2 | 114.3 | 111.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2026-27 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | BKN | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 93 | 130 |
| Field goals | 31–80 · 38.8% | 48–84 · 57.1% |
| Three-pointers | 11–39 · 28.2% | 14–35 · 40.0% |
| Free throws | 20–28 · 71.4% | 20–22 · 90.9% |
| Rebounds | 30 | 46 |
| Assists | 23 | 31 |
| Turnovers | 16 | 20 |
| Steals | 9 | 7 |
| Blocks | 4 | 4 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Brooklyn Nets · Dallas Mavericks
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (DAL) | +9 | +37 | +28 |
| Total points | 227 | 223 | −4 |
| BKN points | 109 | 93 | −16 |
| DAL points | 118 | 130 | +12 |
Injury report
Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-08 21:00 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.
Brooklyn Nets
- Out Egor Dëmin · Right Bone Bruise
- Out Mikel Brown Jr.
Dallas Mavericks
- Out Dereck Lively II · Right Foot Surgery
- Out Sergio de Larrea · Right Knee Sprain
- Out Tarik Biberovic · Right Heel Bursitis
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 24 2025-26 | DAL at BKN | DAL 123 – 114 BKN |
| Jan 12 2025-26 | BKN at DAL | BKN 105 – 113 DAL |
| Dec 12 2025-26 | BKN at DAL | BKN 111 – 119 DAL |
| Mar 31 2024-25 | BKN at DAL | BKN 113 – 109 DAL |
| Mar 24 2024-25 | DAL at BKN | DAL 120 – 101 BKN |