The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Mar 26

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings

Tuesday, March 26, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

DAL 3–2@SAC 2–5 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DAL 37 percent, SAC 63 percent. DAL Mavericks 37% proj. 110 · final 132 SAC Kings · home 63% proj. 114 · final 96
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DAL Dallas Mavericks 110 132 +22
SAC Sacramento Kings (home) 114 96 −18

Forecast: Sacramento Kings to win, 63% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputDALSAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15771565
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +58
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +1.7+1.6
Games played this season 7171
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 118.3115.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 110.5106.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 5.73.4
Rest days 11
Second night of a back-to-back YesYes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDAL1577SAC1565

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DAL1577

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1437 → started this one at 1453
  2. First 61 games: +74.1
  3. Last 10 games: +50.3
  • LIND120–137−20.0
  • WMIA114–108+7.7
  • W@DET142–124+8.2
  • W@CHI127–92+29.0
  • WGSW109–99+8.5
  • L@OKC119–126−5.1
  • WDEN107–105+5.2
  • W@SAS113–107+4.6
  • WUTA113–97+5.3
  • W@UTA115–105+6.9

SAC1565

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1523
  2. First 61 games: +22.3
  3. Last 10 games: +19.4
  • WSAS131–129+1.4
  • LHOU104–112−14.6
  • WMIL129–94+22.8
  • WLAL120–107+8.5
  • LNYK91–98−11.1
  • WMEM121–111+2.7
  • W@TOR123–89+14.3
  • L@WAS102–109−16.5
  • W@ORL109–107+6.0
  • WPHI108–96+5.9
Season scoring marginDAL+1.7SAC+1.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DAL+1.7

Scores 118.6, allows 116.9 over 71 games: +1.7 a game.

SAC+1.6

Scores 117.6, allows 116.1 over 71 games: +1.6 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10DAL118.3SAC115.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.8).

DAL118.3scored, +3.5 vs league

FactorDALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.2%54.8%+2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)10.0%11.5%+2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.3%24.2%−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1900.196−0.2
Everything else−0.2

SAC115.3scored, +0.5 vs league

FactorSACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.2%54.8%−2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.5%11.5%+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.7%24.2%+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1990.196+0.1
Everything else+1.1
Defensive rating, last 10DAL110.5SAC106.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.8).

DAL110.5allowed, −4.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.6%54.8%+3.3
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%11.5%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.1%24.2%+1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1930.196+0.1
Everything else−1.1

SAC106.3allowed, −8.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.1%54.8%+5.5
Turnovers (TOV%)13.3%11.5%+2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.7%24.2%+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2160.196−0.6
Everything else−0.5
Pace, last 10average 98.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DAL 99.5 and SAC 97.8 → average 98.7 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.3)

Rotation points missingDAL5.7SAC3.4

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DAL5.7pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Josh Green5.720.46

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-26 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

SAC3.4pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Kevin Huerter3.416.95

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-26 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestDAL1 daysSAC1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DAL1day, back-to-back

Last played Mar 25 against UTA.

SAC1day, back-to-back

Last played Mar 25 against PHI.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 25@UTA115–10544-9212-4215-18610118.6109.496.5
Mar 21UTA113–9743-8610-3217-281311110.896.0101.5
Mar 19@SAS113–10744-9110-3015-1793108.7103.9103.5
Mar 17DEN107–10542-1009-3514-211122112.6109.495.5
Mar 14@OKC119–12643-8412-2921-261910119.0124.8100.5
Mar 13GSW109–9944-826-2715-19169111.2102.197.5
Mar 11@CHI127–9251-9313-4112-15610133.797.994.5
Mar 9@DET142–12451-9214-3826-32144129.1112.7110.0
Mar 7MIA114–10840-8716-4118-23910118.8113.795.5
Mar 5IND120–13745-9313-3917-2199120.0135.6100.5

SAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 25PHI108–9638-8610-3822-28710121.3107.989.0
Mar 23@ORL109–10738-8715-4018-2176114.7112.695.0
Mar 21@WAS102–10937-8611-3917-19157103.0110.199.0
Mar 20@TOR123–8948-9312-4015-181518124.290.898.5
Mar 18MEM121–11142-9411-3526-321715111.0101.898.7
Mar 16NYK91–9830-8510-3721-26121194.8102.196.0
Mar 13LAL120–10746-8819-419-12129125.0109.297.0
Mar 12MIL129–9449-9218-4013-1684127.793.1101.0
Mar 10HOU104–11239-866-3220-23126103.0109.8101.5
Mar 7SAS131–12952-10210-3217-181311128.4125.2102.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
37%
pregame chance the forecast gave DAL, the winner
the forecast favored SAC
40 pts
margin miss
forecast +4, actual −36 for SAC
132nd
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
10th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 0.99 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDALSAC
Final score13296
Field goals51–92 · 55.4%35–90 · 38.9%
Three-pointers22–39 · 56.4%11–30 · 36.7%
Free throws8–13 · 61.5%15–19 · 78.9%
Rebounds4942
Assists3427
Turnovers913
Steals106
Blocks45

How the model does with these teams over time: Dallas Mavericks · Sacramento Kings

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (SAC)+4−36−40
Total points224228+4
DAL points110132+22
SAC points11496−18

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
DAL31273836–132
SAC28252320–96

Recent form before this game

Dallas Mavericks

DateOpponentResult
Mar 25 at UTA W 115–105
Mar 21 vs UTA W 113–97
Mar 19 at SAS W 113–107
Mar 17 vs DEN W 107–105
Mar 14 at OKC L 119–126

Sacramento Kings

DateOpponentResult
Mar 25 vs PHI W 108–96
Mar 23 at ORL W 109–107
Mar 21 at WAS L 102–109
Mar 20 at TOR W 123–89
Mar 18 vs MEM W 121–111

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 27 2023-24 SAC at DAL SAC 120 – 115 DAL
Nov 19 2023-24 SAC at DAL SAC 129 – 113 DAL
Apr 5 2022-23 SAC at DAL SAC 119 – 123 DAL
Feb 11 2022-23 DAL at SAC DAL 128 – 133 SAC
Feb 10 2022-23 DAL at SAC DAL 122 – 114 SAC