2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at Dallas Mavericks

Friday, March 24, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

CHA 5–2@DAL 1–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CHA Charlotte Hornets	108	117	+9
DAL Dallas Mavericks (home)	120	109	−11

Forecast: Dallas Mavericks to win, 78% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CHA	DAL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1378	1486
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+178
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−6.3	+0.5
Games played this season	74	73
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	103.7	116.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	113.5	119.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	19.7	0.0
Rest days	1	2
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1378DAL1486

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1378

Ended last season at 1544 → started this one at 1533
First 64 games: −128.6
Last 10 games: −26.1

LORL106–117−11.7
L@BKN86–102−6.5
W@NYK112–105+18.7
W@DET113–103+9.4
LUTA111–119−10.3
LCLE108–114−4.5
LCLE104–120−7.9
LPHI82–121−11.9
WIND115–109+7.2
L@NOP96–115−8.6

DAL1486

Ended last season at 1615 → started this one at 1586
First 63 games: −85.4
Last 10 games: −14.4

WPHI133–126+9.6
LPHX126–130−6.8
WUTA120–116+3.6
L@NOP106–113−7.6
L@MEM108–112−3.3
LMEM88–104−13.2
W@SAS137–128+6.2
W@LAL111–110+5.6
L@MEM108–112−3.1
LGSW125–127−5.4

Season scoring marginCHA−6.3DAL+0.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA−6.3

Scores 111.1, allows 117.4 over 74 games: −6.3 a game.

DAL+0.5

Scores 113.9, allows 113.4 over 73 games: +0.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CHA103.7DAL116.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.0).

CHA103.7scored, −10.3 vs league

Factor	CHA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.4%	54.6%	−4.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.9%	12.1%	−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.3%	23.8%	−2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.193	0.213	−0.6
Everything else			−1.7

DAL116.4scored, +2.4 vs league

Factor	DAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.3%	54.6%	+4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	12.1%	+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	16.7%	23.8%	−3.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.228	0.213	+0.4
Everything else			+0.1

Defensive rating, last 10CHA113.5DAL119.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.0).

CHA113.5allowed, −0.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.0%	54.6%	+4.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.8%	12.1%	−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.9%	23.8%	−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.206	0.213	+0.2
Everything else			−0.2

DAL119.0allowed, +4.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.6%	54.6%	−2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	12.1%	−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.0%	23.8%	−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.211	0.213	+0.0
Everything else			−0.4

Pace, last 10average 99.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 99.5 and DAL 98.5 → average 99.0 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingCHA19.7DAL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA19.7pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Terry Rozier	19.7	33.1	10

Source: official injury report, 2023-03-24 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

DAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-03-24 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestCHA1 daysDAL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA1day, back-to-back

Last played Mar 23 against NOP.

DAL2days

Last played Mar 22 against GSW.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 23	@NOP	96–115	38-83	9-37	11-16	17	4	95.0	111.7	102.0
Mar 20	IND	115–109	41-90	10-31	23-32	11	10	111.7	106.9	102.5
Mar 17	PHI	82–121	29-86	5-35	19-26	13	7	82.0	121.0	100.0
Mar 14	CLE	104–120	43-76	6-23	12-15	19	6	107.2	125.0	96.5
Mar 12	CLE	108–114	41-80	10-21	16-22	19	7	106.9	115.2	100.0
Mar 11	UTA	111–119	40-98	17-40	14-15	7	11	113.3	120.2	98.5
Mar 9	@DET	113–103	43-86	8-24	19-32	12	13	111.9	103.0	100.5
Mar 7	@NYK	112–105	42-85	12-32	16-21	10	10	117.9	112.9	94.0
Mar 5	@BKN	86–102	33-88	8-30	12-15	10	5	85.1	101.0	101.0
Mar 3	ORL	106–117	38-78	9-24	21-25	21	8	106.0	118.2	99.5

DAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 22	GSW	125–127	44-89	17-40	20-28	10	8	125.0	128.3	99.5
Mar 20	@MEM	108–112	39-84	11-36	19-20	12	8	114.9	120.4	93.5
Mar 17	@LAL	111–110	40-79	16-34	15-19	13	7	120.7	119.6	92.0
Mar 15	@SAS	137–128	44-86	17-33	32-37	18	10	124.5	116.4	99.6
Mar 13	MEM	88–104	35-90	12-46	6-8	13	8	89.8	106.1	98.0
Mar 11	@MEM	108–112	39-85	15-43	15-23	11	10	111.3	116.7	96.5
Mar 8	@NOP	106–113	38-88	16-46	14-19	9	5	107.1	116.5	98.0
Mar 7	UTA	120–116	42-89	19-45	17-22	16	3	109.1	105.5	110.0
Mar 5	PHX	126–130	38-77	15-38	35-38	10	5	128.6	134.0	97.5
Mar 2	PHI	133–126	45-82	25-48	18-27	12	5	133.0	126.0	100.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

22%

pregame chance the forecast gave CHA, the winner

the forecast favored DAL

20 pts

margin miss

forecast +12, actual −8 for DAL

15th

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

156th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 1.51 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CHA	DAL
Final score	117	109
Field goals	43–89 · 48.3%	41–84 · 48.8%
Three-pointers	11–28 · 39.3%	9–36 · 25.0%
Free throws	20–27 · 74.1%	18–24 · 75.0%
Rebounds	43	45
Assists	32	25
Turnovers	8	10
Steals	7	3
Blocks	4	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Dallas Mavericks

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (DAL)	+12	−8	−20
Total points	228	226	−2
CHA points	108	117	+9
DAL points	120	109	−11

Recent form before this game