2022-23 · Playoffs · Final

Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns

Sunday, April 16, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

LAC 2–0@PHX 3–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
LAC Los Angeles Clippers	108	115	+7
PHX Phoenix Suns (home)	117	110	−7

Forecast: Phoenix Suns to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	LAC	PHX
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1546	1568
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+92
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+0.5	+2.1
Games played this season	82	82
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	118.4	118.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	116.0	112.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	5	5
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No
Playoff series state	0 home series wins

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAC1546PHX1568

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAC1546

Ended last season at 1527 → started this one at 1521
First 72 games: +11.4
Last 10 games: +13.8

LOKC100–101−5.3
WOKC127–105+13.4
LNOP110–131−26.4
WCHI124–112+10.3
W@MEM141–132+15.7
L@MEM94–108−7.8
L@NOP114–122−6.8
WLAL125–118+7.3
WPOR136–125+3.2
W@PHX119–114+10.2

PHX1568

Ended last season at 1599 → started this one at 1574
First 72 games: −39.1
Last 10 games: +33.0

L@SAC127–135−6.5
WPHI125–105+20.2
W@UTA117–103+10.9
WMIN107–100+5.8
WDEN100–93+6.8
W@OKC128–118+10.3
WSAS115–94+3.1
WDEN119–115+4.0
L@LAL107–121−11.4
LLAC114–119−10.2

Season scoring marginLAC+0.5PHX+2.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAC+0.5

Scores 113.6, allows 113.1 over 82 games: +0.5 a game.

PHX+2.1

Scores 113.6, allows 111.6 over 82 games: +2.1 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10LAC118.4PHX118.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).

LAC118.4scored, +4.3 vs league

Factor	LAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	60.0%	54.7%	+8.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.8%	12.0%	−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.9%	23.8%	−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.205	0.211	−0.2
Everything else			−1.1

PHX118.4scored, +4.3 vs league

Factor	PHX	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.5%	54.7%	−1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.0%	12.0%	+4.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.4%	23.8%	+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.204	0.211	−0.2
Everything else			+1.0

Defensive rating, last 10LAC116.0PHX112.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).

LAC116.0allowed, +1.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.9%	54.7%	−0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.6%	12.0%	−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.7%	23.8%	−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.178	0.211	+0.9
Everything else			+0.4

PHX112.3allowed, −1.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.7%	54.7%	+4.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.6%	12.0%	−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.2%	23.8%	−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.209	0.211	+0.1
Everything else			−0.6

Pace, last 10average 99.4

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAC 100.6 and PHX 98.2 → average 99.4 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingLAC0.0PHX0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-04-16 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

PHX0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-04-16 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestLAC5 daysPHX5 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAC5days

Last played Apr 9 against PHX (7 days, capped at 5).

PHX5days

Last played Apr 9 against LAC (7 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 9	@PHX	119–114	49-100	5-23	16-24	10	14	116.7	110.7	102.5
Apr 8	POR	136–125	49-93	12-35	26-30	12	13	132.0	121.4	103.0
Apr 5	LAL	125–118	43-82	16-36	23-27	12	5	119.0	112.4	105.0
Apr 1	@NOP	114–122	42-85	11-29	19-23	13	11	121.3	128.4	94.5
Mar 31	@MEM	94–108	34-90	11-35	15-18	17	12	90.4	102.9	104.5
Mar 29	@MEM	141–132	48-78	22-37	23-31	15	3	133.0	123.4	106.5
Mar 27	CHI	124–112	48-81	20-40	8-16	15	6	126.5	115.5	97.5
Mar 25	NOP	110–131	39-75	15-33	17-21	19	2	107.8	129.7	101.5
Mar 23	OKC	127–105	47-84	18-37	15-20	13	8	132.3	108.2	96.5
Mar 21	OKC	100–101	41-86	6-31	12-21	13	12	105.3	107.4	94.5

PHX

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 9	LAC	114–119	42-99	14-37	16-22	7	12	110.7	116.7	102.5
Apr 7	@LAL	107–121	43-104	9-36	12-14	9	13	102.9	116.3	104.0
Apr 6	DEN	119–115	41-79	17-36	20-25	10	7	126.6	122.3	94.0
Apr 4	SAS	115–94	43-89	10-33	19-26	13	15	117.3	96.9	97.5
Apr 2	@OKC	128–118	46-81	13-34	23-28	13	5	132.0	119.2	98.0
Mar 31	DEN	100–93	37-88	10-27	16-21	16	13	102.0	94.9	98.0
Mar 29	MIN	107–100	40-96	6-20	21-27	8	15	108.1	101.0	99.0
Mar 27	@UTA	117–103	43-101	11-36	20-22	6	18	120.6	105.1	97.5
Mar 25	PHI	125–105	47-93	15-32	16-19	7	13	135.9	111.7	93.0
Mar 24	@SAC	127–135	48-89	9-29	22-29	12	12	128.3	139.2	98.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

28%

pregame chance the forecast gave LAC, the winner

the forecast favored PHX

14 pts

margin miss

forecast +9, actual −5 for PHX

45th

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

338th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 1.28 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	LAC	PHX
Final score	115	110
Field goals	41–93 · 44.1%	39–82 · 47.6%
Three-pointers	10–31 · 32.3%	6–19 · 31.6%
Free throws	23–29 · 79.3%	26–33 · 78.8%
Rebounds	49	42
Assists	23	27
Turnovers	13	10
Steals	6	8
Blocks	4	9

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Clippers · Phoenix Suns

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (PHX)	+9	−5	−14
Total points	225	225	±0
LAC points	108	115	+7
PHX points	117	110	−7

Recent form before this game