2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs

Sunday, December 4, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

PHX 1–2@SAS 0–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
PHX Phoenix Suns	123	133	+10
SAS San Antonio Spurs (home)	115	95	−20

Forecast: Phoenix Suns to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	PHX	SAS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1608	1360
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−179
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+7.0	−10.7
Games played this season	22	23
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	119.6	103.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	112.5	121.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	10.1	41.2
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPHX1608SAS1360

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

PHX1608

Ended last season at 1599 → started this one at 1574
First 12 games: +14.0
Last 10 games: +20.1

L@MIA112–113−3.4
WGSW130–119+8.3
L@UTA133–134−3.6
WNYK116–95+8.5
WLAL115–105+3.4
WDET108–102+1.9
WUTA113–112+2.2
W@SAC122–117+5.7
WCHI132–113+6.8
LHOU121–122−9.7

SAS1360

Ended last season at 1486 → started this one at 1489
First 13 games: −25.8
Last 10 games: −103.6

L@GSW95–132−11.8
L@POR110–117−7.3
L@SAC112–130−10.4
L@LAC97–119−10.5
L@LAL92–123−18.3
LNOP110–129−10.6
LLAL94–105−12.8
LLAL138–143−7.5
L@OKC111–119−6.1
LNOP99–117−8.3

Season scoring marginPHX+7.0SAS−10.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

PHX+7.0

Scores 116.0, allows 109.0 over 22 games: +7.0 a game.

SAS−10.7

Scores 110.1, allows 120.8 over 23 games: −10.7 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10PHX119.6SAS103.8

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.2).

PHX119.6scored, +7.4 vs league

Factor	PHX	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.5%	54.0%	+3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.6%	12.7%	+1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.6%	23.9%	+2.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.164	0.209	−1.3
Everything else			+0.9

SAS103.8scored, −8.3 vs league

Factor	SAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	49.6%	54.0%	−6.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.6%	12.7%	+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.0%	23.9%	+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.142	0.209	−1.9
Everything else			−1.2

Defensive rating, last 10PHX112.5SAS121.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.2).

PHX112.5allowed, +0.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.4%	54.0%	+0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.0%	12.7%	+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.7%	23.9%	+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.254	0.209	−1.3
Everything else			−0.5

SAS121.3allowed, +9.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	61.3%	54.0%	−11.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.1%	12.7%	+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.1%	23.9%	+1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.234	0.209	−0.7
Everything else			+0.3

Pace, last 10average 101.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

PHX 100.7 and SAS 101.8 → average 101.3 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.1)

Rotation points missingPHX10.1SAS41.2

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

PHX10.1pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Torrey Craig	10.1	29.5	9

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-04 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

SAS41.2pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jakob Poeltl	13.3	23.6	7
Doug McDermott	10.7	20.0	7
Jeremy Sochan	9.4	26.4	8
Josh Richardson	7.8	21.9	5

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-04 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestPHX2 daysSAS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

PHX2days

Last played Dec 2 against HOU.

SAS2days

Last played Dec 2 against NOP.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

PHX

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 2	HOU	121–122	45-85	17-37	14-19	17	9	122.2	122.0	99.5
Nov 30	CHI	132–113	49-93	15-33	19-21	13	10	126.9	108.7	104.0
Nov 28	@SAC	122–117	50-94	10-32	12-14	17	11	117.3	111.4	104.5
Nov 26	UTA	113–112	42-92	6-22	23-30	6	18	120.2	119.1	94.0
Nov 25	DET	108–102	42-87	7-29	17-26	13	11	108.0	103.0	99.5
Nov 22	LAL	115–105	48-102	16-34	3-5	15	8	106.5	95.5	109.0
Nov 20	NYK	116–95	43-101	17-39	13-18	13	22	122.1	99.0	95.5
Nov 18	@UTA	133–134	49-94	9-30	26-28	14	12	127.9	131.4	103.0
Nov 16	GSW	130–119	44-86	21-40	21-25	15	8	121.5	111.2	107.0
Nov 14	@MIA	112–113	48-99	14-36	2-4	11	20	123.1	124.2	91.0

SAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 2	NOP	99–117	38-98	11-39	12-16	12	10	94.3	113.6	104.0
Nov 30	@OKC	111–119	41-92	10-37	19-25	10	13	108.8	119.0	101.0
Nov 26	LAL	138–143	53-105	18-37	14-20	10	17	129.0	132.4	107.5
Nov 25	LAL	94–105	38-100	6-33	12-16	16	20	92.2	102.9	102.0
Nov 23	NOP	110–129	41-85	10-34	18-28	18	8	103.8	120.6	106.5
Nov 20	@LAL	92–123	41-105	7-34	3-10	10	13	88.5	118.3	104.0
Nov 19	@LAC	97–119	36-87	7-26	18-21	15	15	102.1	124.0	95.5
Nov 17	@SAC	112–130	46-84	11-26	9-12	18	7	113.1	131.3	99.0
Nov 15	@POR	110–117	44-85	9-29	13-17	19	11	112.2	120.6	97.5
Nov 14	@GSW	95–132	36-100	10-40	13-19	18	22	94.1	130.7	101.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

70%

pregame chance the forecast gave PHX, the winner

PHX was the forecast favorite

30 pts

margin miss

forecast −8, actual −38 for SAS

1071st

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

26th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 0.36 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	PHX	SAS
Final score	133	95
Field goals	49–94 · 52.1%	38–87 · 43.7%
Three-pointers	19–37 · 51.4%	6–31 · 19.4%
Free throws	16–20 · 80.0%	13–18 · 72.2%
Rebounds	45	40
Assists	38	19
Turnovers	11	19
Steals	5	5
Blocks	0	3

How the model does with these teams over time: Phoenix Suns · San Antonio Spurs

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (SAS)	−8	−38	−30
Total points	238	228	−10
PHX points	123	133	+10
SAS points	115	95	−20

Recent form before this game

Phoenix Suns

Date	Opponent	Result
Dec 2	vs HOU	L 121–122
Nov 30	vs CHI	W 132–113
Nov 28	at SAC	W 122–117
Nov 26	vs UTA	W 113–112
Nov 25	vs DET	W 108–102

San Antonio Spurs

Date	Opponent	Result
Dec 2	vs NOP	L 99–117
Nov 30	at OKC	L 111–119
Nov 26	vs LAL	L 138–143
Nov 25	vs LAL	L 94–105
Nov 23	vs NOP	L 110–129

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Jan 30 2021-22	SAS at PHX	SAS 110 – 115 PHX
Jan 17 2021-22	PHX at SAS	PHX 121 – 107 SAS
Dec 6 2021-22	SAS at PHX	SAS 104 – 108 PHX
Nov 22 2021-22	PHX at SAS	PHX 115 – 111 SAS