2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns

Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · tip-off 9:00 PM ET

POR 5–1@PHX 1–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
POR Portland Trail Blazers	114	132	+18
PHX Phoenix Suns (home)	112	119	+7

Forecast: Portland Trail Blazers to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

53%

pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner

POR was the forecast favorite

11 pts

margin miss

forecast −2, actual −13 for PHX

51st

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

59th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	POR	PHX
Final score	132	119
Field goals	44–86 · 51.2%	41–92 · 44.6%
Three-pointers	14–39 · 35.9%	10–36 · 27.8%
Free throws	30–41 · 73.2%	27–31 · 87.1%
Rebounds	47	39
Assists	29	26
Turnovers	17	12
Steals	4	5
Blocks	8	7

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Phoenix Suns

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (PHX)	−2	−13	−11
Total points	226	251	+25
POR points	114	132	+18
PHX points	112	119	+7

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-04 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.