2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns

Tuesday, April 9, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

LAC 1–2@PHX 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
LAC Los Angeles Clippers	107	105	−2
PHX Phoenix Suns (home)	115	92	−23

Forecast: Phoenix Suns to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	LAC	PHX
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1552	1605
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+123
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+3.6	+2.9
Games played this season	78	78
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	118.1	116.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	116.9	109.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	96.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	22.8	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAC1552PHX1605

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAC1552

Ended last season at 1520 → started this one at 1515
First 68 games: +51.5
Last 10 games: −14.6

W@POR125–117+4.3
LPHI107–121−22.9
LIND116–133−17.8
W@PHI108–107+4.1
W@ORL100–97+7.0
W@CHA130–118+5.4
L@SAC95–109−10.3
WDEN102–100+5.5
WUTA131–102+6.8
WCLE120–118+3.3

PHX1605

Ended last season at 1551 → started this one at 1539
First 68 games: +30.5
Last 10 games: +36.4

WPHI115–102+5.6
WATL128–115+5.6
W@SAS131–106+9.8
L@SAS102–104−8.3
W@DEN104–97+13.4
L@OKC103–128−13.7
W@NOP124–111+17.3
WCLE122–101+10.0
WMIN97–87+9.9
LNOP105–113−13.2

Season scoring marginLAC+3.6PHX+2.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAC+3.6

Scores 116.1, allows 112.4 over 78 games: +3.6 a game.

PHX+2.9

Scores 116.4, allows 113.5 over 78 games: +2.9 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10LAC118.1PHX116.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.6).

LAC118.1scored, +3.5 vs league

Factor	LAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.0%	54.8%	+1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.1%	11.6%	+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.9%	24.1%	+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.244	0.195	+1.4
Everything else			−1.7

PHX116.3scored, +1.6 vs league

Factor	PHX	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.5%	54.8%	+5.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.1%	11.6%	−3.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.5%	24.1%	−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.168	0.195	−0.8
Everything else			+0.7

Defensive rating, last 10LAC116.9PHX109.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.6).

LAC116.9allowed, +2.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.1%	54.8%	−0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.2%	11.6%	−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.6%	24.1%	+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.175	0.195	+0.6
Everything else			−1.5

PHX109.7allowed, −5.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.1%	54.8%	+4.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.3%	11.6%	−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.3%	24.1%	+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.169	0.195	+0.8
Everything else			+0.8

Pace, last 10average 96.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAC 96.1 and PHX 97.3 → average 96.7 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.2)

Rotation points missingLAC22.8PHX0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAC22.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Kawhi Leonard	22.8	34.8	6

Source: official injury report, 2024-04-09 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

PHX0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-04-09 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestLAC2 daysPHX2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAC2days

Last played Apr 7 against CLE.

PHX2days

Last played Apr 7 against NOP.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 7	CLE	120–118	41-84	14-35	24-24	15	11	120.0	118.0	100.0
Apr 5	UTA	131–102	51-91	13-35	16-18	14	6	126.0	99.0	103.5
Apr 4	DEN	102–100	34-90	7-33	27-32	6	6	102.0	100.0	100.0
Apr 2	@SAC	95–109	31-76	11-27	22-27	15	8	101.1	116.0	94.0
Mar 31	@CHA	130–118	43-75	14-29	30-34	8	7	139.8	125.5	93.5
Mar 29	@ORL	100–97	41-85	8-24	10-12	16	12	107.5	103.2	93.5
Mar 27	@PHI	108–107	40-90	14-36	14-20	6	11	116.1	113.8	93.5
Mar 25	IND	116–133	46-85	6-20	18-22	8	11	122.1	141.5	94.5
Mar 24	PHI	107–121	40-83	10-28	17-18	13	10	118.9	133.0	90.5
Mar 22	@POR	125–117	44-77	14-33	23-27	17	4	127.6	119.4	98.0

PHX

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 7	NOP	105–113	39-87	14-39	13-14	15	9	107.1	115.3	98.0
Apr 5	MIN	97–87	33-76	9-26	22-29	18	7	95.1	87.0	101.0
Apr 3	CLE	122–101	44-87	18-33	16-17	15	7	123.2	102.0	99.0
Apr 1	@NOP	124–111	43-87	18-47	20-25	12	16	131.9	118.1	94.0
Mar 29	@OKC	103–128	39-87	13-41	12-15	14	12	107.3	133.3	96.0
Mar 27	@DEN	104–97	39-83	16-33	10-11	16	6	113.0	106.6	91.5
Mar 25	@SAS	102–104	42-83	10-28	8-14	14	5	104.1	105.1	98.5
Mar 23	@SAS	131–106	56-94	11-24	8-10	8	6	132.3	107.1	99.0
Mar 21	ATL	128–115	41-74	22-41	24-27	17	7	134.7	121.1	95.0
Mar 20	PHI	115–102	45-90	19-39	6-8	23	14	113.9	101.0	101.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

30%

pregame chance the forecast gave LAC, the winner

the forecast favored PHX

21 pts

margin miss

forecast +8, actual −13 for PHX

30th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

166th

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 1.20 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	LAC	PHX
Final score	105	92
Field goals	41–87 · 47.1%	30–89 · 33.7%
Three-pointers	12–26 · 46.2%	8–35 · 22.9%
Free throws	11–11 · 100.0%	24–28 · 85.7%
Rebounds	63	38
Assists	28	17
Turnovers	18	8
Steals	5	16
Blocks	3	7

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Clippers · Phoenix Suns

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (PHX)	+8	−13	−21
Total points	222	197	−25
LAC points	107	105	−2
PHX points	115	92	−23

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
LAC	37	29	18	21	–	105
PHX	10	23	35	24	–	92

Recent form before this game