The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Feb 1

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Atlanta Hawks at Phoenix Suns

Wednesday, February 1, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

ATL 0–4@PHX 3–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: ATL 42 percent, PHX 58 percent. ATL Hawks 42% proj. 115 · final 132 PHX Suns · home 58% proj. 118 · final 100
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
ATL Atlanta Hawks 115 132 +17
PHX Phoenix Suns (home) 118 100 −18

Forecast: Phoenix Suns to win, 58% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputATLPHX
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14891520
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +101
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −0.6+1.5
Games played this season 5152
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 122.9111.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 120.2112.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingATL1489PHX1520

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ATL1489

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1522 → started this one at 1517
  2. First 41 games: −56.6
  3. Last 10 games: +29.1
  • W@IND113–111+6.7
  • W@TOR114–103+15.1
  • WMIA121–113+9.2
  • W@DAL130–122+11.9
  • WNYK139–124+12.2
  • LCHA118–122−11.3
  • L@CHI100–111−8.3
  • W@OKC137–132+10.2
  • LLAC113–120−10.5
  • L@POR125–129−6.1

PHX1520

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1599 → started this one at 1574
  2. First 42 games: −62.1
  3. Last 10 games: +7.6
  • L@DEN97–126−11.5
  • L@MIN116–121−5.9
  • L@MEM106–136−8.2
  • WBKN117–112+7.4
  • WIND112–107+4.4
  • WMEM112–110+6.3
  • WCHA128–97+10.2
  • LDAL95–99−8.8
  • W@SAS128–118+6.7
  • WTOR114–106+7.0
Season scoring marginATL−0.6PHX+1.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ATL−0.6

Scores 116.2, allows 116.8 over 51 games: −0.6 a game.

PHX+1.5

Scores 112.9, allows 111.5 over 52 games: +1.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10ATL122.9PHX111.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.6).

ATL122.9scored, +9.3 vs league

FactorATLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.8%54.4%+6.6
Turnovers (TOV%)11.2%12.2%+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.0%23.9%+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2040.212−0.3
Everything else+1.1

PHX111.4scored, −2.1 vs league

FactorPHXLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.4%54.4%−3.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%12.2%−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.6%23.9%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2030.212−0.3
Everything else+0.2
Defensive rating, last 10ATL120.2PHX112.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.6).

ATL120.2allowed, +6.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.0%54.4%−3.9
Turnovers (TOV%)10.9%12.2%−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.9%23.9%−0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2060.212+0.2
Everything else−0.9

PHX112.6allowed, −1.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.1%54.4%+2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.0%12.2%−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.3%23.9%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1840.212+0.8
Everything else−0.8
Pace, last 10average 99.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ATL 98.8 and PHX 99.8 → average 99.3 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.9)

Rotation points missingATL0.0PHX0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ATL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-02-01 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

PHX0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-02-01 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestATL2 daysPHX2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ATL2days

Last played Jan 30 against POR.

PHX2days

Last played Jan 30 against TOR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ATL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 30@POR125–12944-9413-3024-30617134.4138.793.0
Jan 28LAC113–12045-957-2716-20815116.5123.797.0
Jan 25@OKC137–13250-8411-2926-331611129.2124.5106.0
Jan 23@CHI100–11139-8510-3312-19189102.0112.198.5
Jan 21CHA118–12245-8311-2517-20166114.6117.3103.5
Jan 20NYK139–12456-10013-3414-16714147.9130.594.5
Jan 18@DAL130–12249-8613-2619-20127132.7124.598.0
Jan 16MIA121–11345-7613-2718-22162122.2114.199.0
Jan 14@TOR114–10343-8411-2717-18115116.3104.098.5
Jan 13@IND113–11141-9416-3315-211314113.0112.199.5

PHX

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 30TOR114–10643-8711-2817-211213121.3112.894.0
Jan 28@SAS128–11850-1038-2420-26917120.8111.396.0
Jan 26DAL95–9935-8613-3212-16713106.7111.289.0
Jan 24CHA128–9747-9422-3912-131715124.395.1102.5
Jan 22MEM112–11039-8813-3521-25166106.7105.8104.5
Jan 21IND112–10738-9112-3124-351514106.7100.9105.5
Jan 19BKN117–11239-8511-2828-411612113.6109.8102.5
Jan 16@MEM106–13639-8910-3318-19159103.9134.7101.5
Jan 13@MIN116–12141-8614-2320-24199109.4114.2106.0
Jan 11@DEN97–12639-909-3210-141615101.0129.996.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
42%
pregame chance the forecast gave ATL, the winner
the forecast favored PHX
35 pts
margin miss
forecast +3, actual −32 for PHX
291st
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
17th
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 0.86 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statATLPHX
Final score132100
Field goals52–91 · 57.1%35–86 · 40.7%
Three-pointers19–33 · 57.6%4–28 · 14.3%
Free throws9–11 · 81.8%26–31 · 83.9%
Rebounds4544
Assists3222
Turnovers1216
Steals68
Blocks54

How the model does with these teams over time: Atlanta Hawks · Phoenix Suns

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (PHX)+3−32−35
Total points233232−1
ATL points115132+17
PHX points118100−18

Recent form before this game

Atlanta Hawks

DateOpponentResult
Jan 30 at POR L 125–129
Jan 28 vs LAC L 113–120
Jan 25 at OKC W 137–132
Jan 23 at CHI L 100–111
Jan 21 vs CHA L 118–122

Phoenix Suns

DateOpponentResult
Jan 30 vs TOR W 114–106
Jan 28 at SAS W 128–118
Jan 26 vs DAL L 95–99
Jan 24 vs CHA W 128–97
Jan 22 vs MEM W 112–110

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 3 2021-22 PHX at ATL PHX 115 – 124 ATL
Nov 6 2021-22 ATL at PHX ATL 117 – 121 PHX