The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 24

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns

Saturday, October 24, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

GSW 0–2@PHX 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: GSW 31 percent, PHX 69 percent. GSW Golden State Warriors 31% proj. 109 · final 122 PHX Suns · home 69% proj. 116 · final 131
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
GSW Golden State Warriors 109 122 +13
PHX Phoenix Suns (home) 116 131 +15

Forecast: Phoenix Suns to win, 69% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans PHX

  • Home court+2.1 PHXWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Player availability+2.0 PHXGSW without Stephen Curry (24 ppg) and Draymond Green (4 ppg) and 1 more.
  • Team strength+1.5 PHXElo PHX 1501, GSW 1425; season margin PHX −1.5, GSW −1.8.
  • Recent form+0.6 PHXLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: PHX scores 108.5 and allows 119.2; GSW scores 111.5 and allows 121.2.

Together: PHX by 7, a 69% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

PHX is 0–1, losing by 41 a game on average (scoring 83, allowing 124). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −2.3, offensive rebounding +1.0. Their defense forces turnovers on 10.7% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 2.1 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −1.7.

GSW is 0–2, losing by 12 a game on average (scoring 106, allowing 119). Last season they were a −1 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 2.7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −1.3, ball security −1.3. Their defense lets opponents shoot 59% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +2.4, defensive rebounding −2.2. Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Al Horford are out (28 rotation points a game combined). They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors PHX; left favors GSW.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Player availability +2.0, Team strength +1.5, Recent form +0.6, No playoff context +0.4, Rest and schedule +0.2, giving +6.7 for PHX. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Player availability +2.0 Team strength +1.5 Recent form +0.6 No playoff context +0.4 Rest and schedule +0.2 Projected margin +6.7
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +6.7. The 69% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputGSWPHXEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14251501 +0.5
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +146 +1.4
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −1.8−1.5 +0.2
Games played this season 21 −0.6
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 111.5108.5 −0.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 121.2119.2 +0.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 97.1 −0.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 28.50.0 +2.0
Rest days 13 +0.1
Second night of a back-to-back YesNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValuePHX ptsGSW ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)121.2+1.84−0.02+1.86
Elo gap incl. home court146.3+0.64−0.80+1.44
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)119.2+0.32+1.56−1.24
Rotation points missing (away)28.5−0.18−1.39+1.20
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.74−0.07+0.81
Games played (away)2.0+0.08+0.74−0.66
Elo rating (away)1425.0+0.20−0.43+0.63
Season scoring margin (away)-1.8+0.64+0.15+0.49
Season scoring margin (home)-1.5−0.25+0.06−0.31
Home series wins0.0+0.35+0.05+0.30
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)108.5−0.47−0.23−0.24
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)111.5−0.03−0.25+0.22
Elo rating (home)1501.3−0.08+0.06−0.14
Rest days (home)3.0+0.10−0.01+0.11
Games played (home)1.0+0.87+0.78+0.09
Series pressure0.0+0.06−0.01+0.06
Rest days (away)1.0+0.04+0.01+0.04
Combined pace, last 1097.1−3.30−3.26−0.04
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)1±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingGSW1425PHX15011.9 pts toward PHX

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

GSW1425

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1422 → started this one at 1442
  2. This season's 2 games: −16.7
  • L@LAL105–127−7.5
  • LMEM108–111−9.2

PHX1501

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1523
  2. This season's 1 game: −22.0
  • L@POR83–124−22.0
Season scoring marginGSW−1.8PHX−1.50.4 pts toward GSW

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

GSW−1.8

Scores 106.5, allows 119.0 over 2 games: −12.5 a game.

10% this season (−12.5) + 90% last season (−0.6) = −1.8

PHX−1.5

Scores 83.0, allows 124.0 over 1 game: −41.0 a game.

5% this season (−41.0) + 95% last season (+0.6) = −1.5

Offensive rating, last 10GSW111.5PHX108.5no effect on the margin

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

GSW111.5scored, −3.0 vs league

FactorGSWLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.8%54.5%−2.7
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%12.2%−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.2%26.1%−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2230.210+0.4
Everything else+1.8

PHX108.5scored, −6.1 vs league

FactorPHXLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.9%54.5%−5.4
Turnovers (TOV%)13.8%12.2%−2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.4%26.1%+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1940.210−0.5
Everything else+1.0
Defensive rating, last 10GSW121.2PHX119.20.6 pts toward PHX

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

GSW121.2allowed, +6.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.5%54.5%−7.5
Turnovers (TOV%)13.9%12.2%+2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.0%26.1%−2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1960.210+0.4
Everything else+0.3

PHX119.2allowed, +4.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.6%54.5%−0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)10.7%12.2%−2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.9%26.1%−1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2070.210+0.1
Everything else−0.7
Pace, last 10average 97.1no effect on the margin

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

GSW 97.4 and PHX 96.8 → average 97.1 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingGSW28.5PHX0.02.0 pts toward PHX

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

GSW28.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Stephen Curry23.525.52
Draymond Green3.526.12
Al Horford1.518.32

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-24 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

PHX0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-24 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestGSW1 daysPHX3 days0.2 pts toward PHX

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

GSW1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 23 against MEM.

PHX3days

Last played Oct 21 against POR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

GSW

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 23MEM108–11134-8314-4126-291918108.0112.199.5
Oct 21@LAL105–12738-928-3621-271515102.9124.5102.0
Apr 12@LAC110–11536-8611-3927-32913117.0121.194.5
Apr 10@SAC118–12439-8114-3626-28165115.7121.6102.0
Apr 9LAL103–11941-819-3012-12199112.0129.392.0
Apr 7SAC110–10537-8217-3819-241710114.6111.795.0
Apr 5HOU116–11742-8414-4018-20106123.4124.594.0
Apr 2CLE111–11841-9412-4417-201212109.9116.8101.0
Apr 1SAS113–12742-8614-3515-18132111.9125.7101.0
Mar 29@DEN93–11635-8314-429-11137100.0124.793.0

PHX

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21@POR83–12430-846-3217-23151386.5126.597.0
Apr 27OKC122–13148-9014-3912-161210125.8136.596.5
Apr 25OKC109–12138-8713-4120-23119111.2122.298.5
Apr 22@OKC107–12039-8511-3118-222115108.1120.099.5
Apr 19@OKC84–11929-8313-3913-18171390.3129.392.5
Apr 12@OKC135–10356-10120-413-61113137.8105.198.0
Apr 10@LAL73–10126-777-4014-21231781.1112.290.0
Apr 8DAL112–10742-9114-3514-171012117.9112.695.0
Apr 7HOU105–11932-757-3134-391810108.2121.497.5
Apr 5@CHI120–11045-8913-3217-221511117.6105.8103.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
69%
pregame chance the forecast gave PHX, the winner
PHX was the forecast favorite
2 pts
margin miss
forecast +7, actual +9 for PHX
100th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
125th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.36 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statGSWPHX
Final score122131
Field goals41–91 · 45.1%50–86 · 58.1%
Three-pointers17–39 · 43.6%14–37 · 37.8%
Free throws23–32 · 71.9%17–22 · 77.3%
Rebounds4442
Assists2433
Turnovers1615
Steals99
Blocks45

How the model does with these teams over time: Golden State Warriors · Phoenix Suns

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (PHX)+7+9+2
Total points225253+28
GSW points109122+13
PHX points116131+15

Recent form before this game

Golden State Warriors

DateOpponentResult
Oct 23 vs MEM L 108–111
Oct 21 at LAL L 105–127
Apr 12 at LAC L 110–115
Apr 10 at SAC L 118–124
Apr 9 vs LAL L 103–119

Phoenix Suns

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 at POR L 83–124
Apr 27 vs OKC L 122–131
Apr 25 vs OKC L 109–121
Apr 22 at OKC L 107–120
Apr 19 at OKC L 84–119

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 5 2025-26 GSW at PHX GSW 101 – 97 PHX
Dec 20 2025-26 PHX at GSW PHX 116 – 119 GSW
Dec 18 2025-26 GSW at PHX GSW 98 – 99 PHX
Nov 4 2025-26 PHX at GSW PHX 107 – 118 GSW
Apr 8 2024-25 GSW at PHX GSW 133 – 95 PHX