The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 2

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors

Monday, November 2, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

PHX 1–3@GSW 4–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: PHX 47 percent, GSW 53 percent. PHX Suns 47% proj. 113 · final 113 GSW Golden State Warriors · home 53% proj. 114 · final 116
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
PHX Phoenix Suns 113 113 ±0
GSW Golden State Warriors (home) 114 116 +2

Forecast: Golden State Warriors to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans GSW

  • Home court+2.1 GSWWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+0.5 PHXElo GSW 1492, PHX 1495; season margin GSW +0.6, PHX −2.0.
  • Rest and schedule+0.4 PHXGSW 1 days of rest, PHX 3. GSW on the second night of a back-to-back.

Together: GSW by 1, a 53% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

GSW is 4–3, winning by 3 a game on average (scoring 118, allowing 115). Last season they were a −1 team, which still counts for 65% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 14.0% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 2.6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +1.8. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +3, defensive rebounding −1.7. Gui Santos and Al Horford are out (12 rotation points a game combined). They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

PHX is 1–3, losing by 12 a game on average (scoring 112, allowing 124). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 2.6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −2.1, offensive rebounding +1.6. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Their defense is below average at everything: shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors GSW; left favors PHX.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −0.5, No playoff context +0.4, Rest and schedule −0.4, Player availability −0.3, Recent form −0.2, giving +1.1 for GSW. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −0.5 No playoff context +0.4 Rest and schedule −0.4 Player availability −0.3 Recent form −0.2 Projected margin +1.1
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +1.1. The 53% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputPHXGSWEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14951492 −0.0
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +68 −0.1
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −2.0+0.6 +0.3
Games played this season 47 −0.7
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 111.0116.7 +0.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 122.9117.6 +0.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.0 −1.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.012.2 −0.3
Rest days 31 −0.2
Second night of a back-to-back NoYes −0.2
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueGSW ptsPHX ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)122.9+1.72+0.12+1.60
Combined pace, last 1098.0−2.90−1.67−1.23
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)117.6+0.27+1.41−1.14
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.23+0.55−0.78
Games played (away)4.0+0.17+0.74−0.57
Rotation points missing (home)12.2+0.52+0.00+0.51
Season scoring margin (away)-2.0+0.55+0.18+0.37
Home series wins0.0+0.37+0.05+0.32
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)116.7+0.23−0.05+0.28
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)111.0−0.01−0.27+0.26
Rest days (home)1.0−0.20+0.01−0.21
Back-to-back (home)1−0.13+0.07−0.20
Elo rating (home)1492.3−0.07+0.05−0.12
Games played (home)7.0−0.06+0.06−0.12
Elo rating (away)1494.7+0.12+0.02+0.10
Elo gap incl. home court67.6−0.74−0.66−0.08
Series pressure0.0+0.06−0.01+0.07
Season scoring margin (home)0.6−0.01+0.04−0.04
Rest days (away)3.0+0.03−0.00+0.03
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPHX1495GSW14920.1 pts toward PHX

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

PHX1495

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1523
  2. This season's 4 games: −28.7
  • L@POR83–124−22.0
  • WGSW131–122+5.2
  • L@OKC114–125−3.2
  • LDEN120–127−8.7

GSW1492

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1422 → started this one at 1442
  2. This season's 7 games: +50.6
  • L@LAL105–127−7.5
  • LMEM108–111−9.2
  • L@PHX122–131−5.2
  • W@DEN134–114+32.3
  • W@MIN119–114+13.3
  • WLAL112–95+17.4
  • WLAC124–112+9.5
Season scoring marginPHX−2.0GSW+0.60.4 pts toward PHX

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

PHX−2.0

Scores 112.0, allows 124.5 over 4 games: −12.5 a game.

20% this season (−12.5) + 80% last season (+0.6) = −2.0

GSW+0.6

Scores 117.7, allows 114.9 over 7 games: +2.9 a game.

35% this season (+2.9) + 65% last season (−0.6) = +0.6

Offensive rating, last 10PHX111.0GSW116.70.5 pts toward GSW

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

PHX111.0scored, −3.5 vs league

FactorPHXLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.8%54.5%−2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)13.7%12.2%−2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.5%26.1%+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1650.210−1.3
Everything else+0.9

GSW116.7scored, +2.1 vs league

FactorGSWLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.9%54.5%+0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)14.0%12.2%−2.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.1%26.1%+1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2420.210+0.9
Everything else+1.4
Defensive rating, last 10PHX122.9GSW117.60.5 pts toward GSW

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

PHX122.9allowed, +8.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.2%54.5%−4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.4%12.2%−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.5%26.1%−1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2330.210−0.7
Everything else−0.8

GSW117.6allowed, +3.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.4%54.5%−4.4
Turnovers (TOV%)14.3%12.2%+3.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.9%26.1%−1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2080.210+0.1
Everything else±0.0
Pace, last 10average 98.01.2 pts toward PHX

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

PHX 96.9 and GSW 99.0 → average 98.0 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingPHX0.0GSW12.20.3 pts toward PHX

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

PHX0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

GSW12.2pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Gui Santos7.220.16
Al Horford5.018.76

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestPHX3 daysGSW1 days0.4 pts toward PHX

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

PHX3days

Last played Oct 30 against DEN.

GSW1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 1 against LAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

PHX

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 30DEN120–12746-9418-4210-111515122.4129.698.0
Oct 26@OKC114–12539-9118-5018-251214117.5127.697.5
Oct 24GSW131–12250-8614-3717-22159129.7119.6101.5
Oct 21@POR83–12430-846-3217-23151386.5126.597.0
Apr 27OKC122–13148-9014-3912-161210125.8136.596.5
Apr 25OKC109–12138-8713-4120-23119111.2122.298.5
Apr 22@OKC107–12039-8511-3118-222115108.1120.099.5
Apr 19@OKC84–11929-8313-3913-18171390.3129.392.5
Apr 12@OKC135–10356-10120-413-61113137.8105.198.0
Apr 10@LAL73–10126-777-4014-21231781.1112.290.0

GSW

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 1LAC124–11246-8622-4910-141511122.8112.0100.5
Oct 30LAL112–9538-8922-4614-171515119.1102.293.5
Oct 28@MIN119–11439-8911-3530-371713110.2105.6108.0
Oct 26@DEN134–11446-8522-4420-211713139.6117.596.5
Oct 24@PHX122–13141-9117-3923-321619119.6129.7101.5
Oct 23MEM108–11134-8314-4126-291918108.0112.199.5
Oct 21@LAL105–12738-928-3621-271515102.9124.5102.0
Apr 12@LAC110–11536-8611-3927-32913117.0121.194.5
Apr 10@SAC118–12439-8114-3626-28165115.7121.6102.0
Apr 9LAL103–11941-819-3012-12199112.0129.392.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
53%
pregame chance the forecast gave GSW, the winner
GSW was the forecast favorite
2 pts
margin miss
forecast +1, actual +3 for GSW
52nd
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
125th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statPHXGSW
Final score113116
Field goals40–85 · 47.1%36–84 · 42.9%
Three-pointers11–30 · 36.7%13–42 · 31.0%
Free throws22–30 · 73.3%31–37 · 83.8%
Rebounds3744
Assists2823
Turnovers1513
Steals117
Blocks52

How the model does with these teams over time: Phoenix Suns · Golden State Warriors

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (GSW)+1+3+2
Total points227229+2
PHX points113113±0
GSW points114116+2

Recent form before this game

Phoenix Suns

DateOpponentResult
Oct 30 vs DEN L 120–127
Oct 26 at OKC L 114–125
Oct 24 vs GSW W 131–122
Oct 21 at POR L 83–124
Apr 27 vs OKC L 122–131

Golden State Warriors

DateOpponentResult
Nov 1 vs LAC W 124–112
Oct 30 vs LAL W 112–95
Oct 28 at MIN W 119–114
Oct 26 at DEN W 134–114
Oct 24 at PHX L 122–131

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Oct 24 2026-27 GSW at PHX GSW 122 – 131 PHX
Feb 5 2025-26 GSW at PHX GSW 101 – 97 PHX
Dec 20 2025-26 PHX at GSW PHX 116 – 119 GSW
Dec 18 2025-26 GSW at PHX GSW 98 – 99 PHX
Nov 4 2025-26 PHX at GSW PHX 107 – 118 GSW