2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves

Monday, December 8, 2025 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

PHX 0–0@MIN 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
PHX Phoenix Suns	112	108	−4
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves (home)	120	105	−15

Forecast: Minnesota Timberwolves to win, 71% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	PHX	MIN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1532	1625
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+163
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+2.4	+5.2
Games played this season	23	23
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	113.2	117.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	114.8	111.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	19.9	0.0
Rest days	3	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPHX1532MIN1625

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

PHX1532

Ended last season at 1429 → started this one at 1447
First 13 games: +63.3
Last 10 games: +22.2

LATL122–124−5.5
W@POR127–110+19.0
WMIN114–113+4.5
WSAS111–102+7.0
LHOU92–114−15.9
W@SAC112–100+10.7
L@OKC119–123−1.4
LDEN112–130−12.7
W@LAL125–108+23.8
L@HOU98–117−7.3

MIN1625

Ended last season at 1690 → started this one at 1642
First 13 games: −23.2
Last 10 games: +6.1

WDAL120–96+4.6
WWAS120–109+1.0
L@PHX113–114−4.5
L@SAC112–117−10.8
L@OKC105–113−3.2
WBOS119–115+4.3
WSAS125–112+6.6
W@NOP149–142+2.8
W@NOP125–116+3.1
WLAC109–106+2.2

Season scoring marginPHX+2.4MIN+5.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

PHX+2.4

Scores 116.2, allows 113.8 over 23 games: +2.4 a game.

MIN+5.2

Scores 120.3, allows 115.0 over 23 games: +5.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10PHX113.2MIN117.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.9).

PHX113.2scored, −1.7 vs league

Factor	PHX	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.4%	54.6%	−1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.8%	12.5%	−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.172	0.223	−1.5
Everything else			+2.1

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 3 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

MIN117.2scored, +2.3 vs league

Factor	MIN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.6%	54.6%	+1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.3%	12.5%	+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.244	0.223	+0.6
Everything else			−0.1

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 5 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Defensive rating, last 10PHX114.8MIN111.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.9).

PHX114.8allowed, −0.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.4%	54.6%	−4.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	15.8%	12.5%	+4.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.222	0.223	+0.0
Everything else			−0.4

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 3 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

MIN111.8allowed, −3.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.3%	54.6%	+2.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.0%	12.5%	−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.230	0.223	−0.2
Everything else			+2.1

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 5 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Pace, last 10average 100.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

PHX 99.8 and MIN 100.2 → average 100.0 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.8)

Rotation points missingPHX19.9MIN0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

PHX19.9pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Devin Booker	19.9	33.3	9

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-08 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

MIN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-08 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestPHX3 daysMIN2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

PHX3days

Last played Dec 5 against HOU.

MIN2days

Last played Dec 6 against LAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

PHX

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 5	@HOU	98–117	39-100	5-36	15-19	13	–	100.0	118.2	98.5
Dec 1	@LAL	125–108	52-92	17-39	4-8	11	–	122.5	106.9	101.5
Nov 29	DEN	112–130	39-88	14-42	20-26	7	–	120.4	139.8	93.0
Nov 28	@OKC	119–123	42-92	15-44	20-24	18	13	112.3	116.0	106.0
Nov 26	@SAC	112–100	42-91	14-42	14-20	14	17	115.5	103.1	97.0
Nov 24	HOU	92–114	33-80	13-37	13-19	21	13	96.8	122.6	94.0
Nov 23	SAS	111–102	43-97	14-38	11-16	6	11	113.3	106.3	97.0
Nov 21	MIN	114–113	39-81	14-31	22-29	27	15	110.7	108.7	103.5
Nov 18	@POR	127–110	47-98	14-40	19-22	15	18	121.0	104.8	105.0
Nov 16	ATL	122–124	47-97	10-30	18-19	17	16	119.6	121.6	102.0

MIN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 6	LAC	109–106	34-68	11-25	30-34	13	–	121.1	115.2	91.0
Dec 4	@NOP	125–116	42-92	15-38	26-29	19	–	111.6	105.5	111.0
Dec 2	@NOP	149–142	52-104	20-51	25-29	9	–	133.0	127.9	101.0
Nov 30	SAS	125–112	49-87	17-37	10-13	12	–	133.0	117.9	94.5
Nov 29	BOS	119–115	41-83	21-48	16-20	14	–	124.0	119.8	96.0
Nov 26	@OKC	105–113	33-80	17-37	22-37	14	12	106.1	113.0	99.5
Nov 24	@SAC	112–117	40-97	13-42	19-22	16	15	101.8	106.4	99.6
Nov 21	@PHX	113–114	39-86	12-37	23-33	19	14	108.7	110.7	103.5
Nov 19	WAS	120–109	42-94	13-38	23-32	9	19	122.4	112.4	97.5
Nov 17	DAL	120–96	44-97	14-44	18-25	16	14	110.1	88.9	108.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

29%

pregame chance the forecast gave PHX, the winner

the forecast favored MIN

11 pts

margin miss

forecast +8, actual −3 for MIN

66th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

539th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.25 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	PHX	MIN
Final score	108	105
Field goals	41–90 · 45.6%	39–83 · 47.0%
Three-pointers	12–33 · 36.4%	11–42 · 26.2%
Free throws	14–20 · 70.0%	16–23 · 69.6%
Rebounds	43	46
Assists	26	26
Turnovers	9	13
Steals	8	5
Blocks	2	1

How the model does with these teams over time: Phoenix Suns · Minnesota Timberwolves

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIN)	+8	−3	−11
Total points	232	213	−19
PHX points	112	108	−4
MIN points	120	105	−15

Recent form before this game

Phoenix Suns

Date	Opponent	Result
Dec 5	at HOU	L 98–117
Dec 1	at LAL	W 125–108
Nov 29	vs DEN	L 112–130
Nov 28	at OKC	L 119–123
Nov 26	at SAC	W 112–100

Minnesota Timberwolves

Date	Opponent	Result
Dec 6	vs LAC	W 109–106
Dec 4	at NOP	W 125–116
Dec 2	at NOP	W 149–142
Nov 30	vs SAS	W 125–112
Nov 29	vs BOS	W 119–115

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Nov 21 2025-26	MIN at PHX	MIN 113 – 114 PHX
Mar 28 2024-25	PHX at MIN	PHX 109 – 124 MIN
Mar 2 2024-25	MIN at PHX	MIN 116 – 98 PHX
Jan 29 2024-25	MIN at PHX	MIN 121 – 113 PHX
Nov 17 2024-25	PHX at MIN	PHX 117 – 120 MIN