The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for May 11

2022-23 · Playoffs · Final

Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns

Thursday, May 11, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

DEN 0–3@PHX 3–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DEN 22 percent, PHX 78 percent. DEN Nuggets 22% proj. 99 · final 125 PHX Suns · home 78% proj. 111 · final 100
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DEN Denver Nuggets 99 125 +26
PHX Phoenix Suns (home) 111 100 −11

Forecast: Phoenix Suns to win, 78% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputDENPHX
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15891575
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +56
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +3.8+1.9
Games played this season 9292
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 117.9117.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 111.0117.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 97.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.012.4
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo
Playoff series state 0 home series wins

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDEN1589PHX1575

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DEN1589

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1522 → started this one at 1517
  2. First 82 games: +25.7
  3. Last 10 games: +46.7
  • WMIN109–80+15.4
  • WMIN122–113+6.2
  • W@MIN120–111+10.3
  • L@MIN108–114−7.9
  • WMIN112–109+3.3
  • WPHX125–107+12.8
  • WPHX97–87+7.8
  • L@PHX114–121−6.8
  • L@PHX124–129−5.4
  • WPHX118–102+11.0

PHX1575

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1599 → started this one at 1574
  2. First 82 games: −6.2
  3. Last 10 games: +6.3
  • LLAC110–115−9.6
  • WLAC123–109+9.6
  • W@LAC129–124+8.3
  • W@LAC112–100+13.0
  • WLAC136–130+4.4
  • L@DEN107–125−12.8
  • L@DEN87–97−7.8
  • WDEN121–114+6.8
  • WDEN129–124+5.4
  • L@DEN102–118−11.0
Season scoring marginDEN+3.8PHX+1.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DEN+3.8

Scores 115.7, allows 111.9 over 92 games: +3.8 a game.

PHX+1.9

Scores 113.9, allows 112.0 over 92 games: +1.9 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10DEN117.9PHX117.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).

DEN117.9scored, +3.8 vs league

FactorDENLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.1%54.6%+0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)9.8%11.9%+3.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.5%23.8%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1980.210−0.3
Everything else−0.4

PHX117.6scored, +3.5 vs league

FactorPHXLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.2%54.6%+0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)10.2%11.9%+2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.7%23.8%+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2220.210+0.3
Everything else−0.6
Defensive rating, last 10DEN111.0PHX117.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).

DEN111.0allowed, −3.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.0%54.6%+2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.2%11.9%−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.0%23.8%+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2010.210+0.3
Everything else+0.2

PHX117.3allowed, +3.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.9%54.6%+1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)10.6%11.9%−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.5%23.8%−1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2230.210−0.4
Everything else−0.8
Pace, last 10average 97.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DEN 96.1 and PHX 98.4 → average 97.3 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingDEN0.0PHX12.4

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DEN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-05-11 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

PHX12.4pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Chris Paul12.435.77

Source: official injury report, 2023-05-11 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestDEN2 daysPHX2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DEN2days

Last played May 9 against PHX.

PHX2days

Last played May 9 against DEN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DEN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
May 9PHX118–10242-8513-2721-281010118.0103.099.5
May 7@PHX124–12950-897-2217-23810130.5137.294.5
May 5@PHX114–12143-9710-3018-211216111.8118.6102.0
May 1PHX97–8736-767-2718-21105104.393.593.0
Apr 29PHX125–10748-10116-3713-15916127.6110.397.5
Apr 25MIN112–10934-8512-3432-361216119.1116.094.0
Apr 23@MIN108–11442-9512-3512-181110105.9114.091.5
Apr 21@MIN120–11148-8413-3211-13145118.8111.0100.5
Apr 19MIN122–11346-8510-2220-25109128.4120.294.5
Apr 16MIN109–8041-9016-3911-171011114.786.094.0

PHX

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
May 9@DEN102–11838-889-2717-24108103.0118.099.5
May 7DEN129–12446-8113-2924-291312137.2130.594.5
May 5DEN121–11448-959-2816-1897118.6111.8102.0
May 1@DEN87–9738-956-315-591193.5104.393.0
Apr 29@DEN107–12543-847-2314-17168110.3127.697.5
Apr 25LAC136–13051-9413-2621-24711136.0130.0100.0
Apr 22@LAC112–10041-849-2221-271314115.5104.296.5
Apr 20@LAC129–12442-8810-2735-461315125.2119.2103.5
Apr 18LAC123–10950-8510-2413-14117129.5114.795.0
Apr 16LAC110–11539-826-1926-33106106.8112.7102.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
22%
pregame chance the forecast gave DEN, the winner
the forecast favored PHX
37 pts
margin miss
forecast +12, actual −25 for PHX
15th
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
10th
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.51 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDENPHX
Final score125100
Field goals44–82 · 53.7%38–79 · 48.1%
Three-pointers8–22 · 36.4%11–28 · 39.3%
Free throws29–31 · 93.5%13–20 · 65.0%
Rebounds4129
Assists2420
Turnovers1014
Steals103
Blocks35

How the model does with these teams over time: Denver Nuggets · Phoenix Suns

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (PHX)+12−25−37
Total points210225+15
DEN points99125+26
PHX points111100−11

Recent form before this game

Denver Nuggets

DateOpponentResult
May 9 vs PHX W 118–102
May 7 at PHX L 124–129
May 5 at PHX L 114–121
May 1 vs PHX W 97–87
Apr 29 vs PHX W 125–107

Phoenix Suns

DateOpponentResult
May 9 at DEN L 102–118
May 7 vs DEN W 129–124
May 5 vs DEN W 121–114
May 1 at DEN L 87–97
Apr 29 at DEN L 107–125

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
May 9 2022-23 PHX at DEN PHX 102 – 118 DEN
May 7 2022-23 DEN at PHX DEN 124 – 129 PHX
May 5 2022-23 DEN at PHX DEN 114 – 121 PHX
May 1 2022-23 PHX at DEN PHX 87 – 97 DEN
Apr 29 2022-23 PHX at DEN PHX 107 – 125 DEN