The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 7

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns

Saturday, November 7, 2026 · tip-off 9:00 PM ET

HOU 7–2@PHX 2–5 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: HOU 68 percent, PHX 32 percent. HOU Rockets 68% proj. 117 · final 99 PHX Suns · home 32% proj. 111 · final 102
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
HOU Houston Rockets 117 99 −18
PHX Phoenix Suns (home) 111 102 −9

Forecast: Houston Rockets to win, 68% win probability, projected margin 6.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans HOU

  • Home court+2.1 PHXWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+5.5 HOUElo PHX 1487, HOU 1615; season margin PHX −2.3, HOU +7.2.
  • Recent form+3.0 HOULast 10 games, per 100 possessions: PHX scores 114.7 and allows 122.9; HOU scores 116.5 and allows 109.3.

Together: HOU by 6, a 68% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

HOU is 7–2, winning by 10 a game on average (scoring 118, allowing 108). Last season they were a +5 team, which still counts for 55% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 55% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 2.5 points per 100 possessions. Their offense is above average at everything: shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws. Their defense holds opponents to 52% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 1.9 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: free throws allowed +1.5.

PHX is 2–5, losing by 8 a game on average (scoring 114, allowing 121). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 65% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 55% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 2.0 points per 100 possessions. Their defense lets opponents shoot 58% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −2.5. Jordan Goodwin (8 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors PHX; left favors HOU.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −5.5, Recent form −3.0, No playoff context +0.2, Player availability +0.0, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving −6.1 for PHX. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −5.5 Recent form −3.0 No playoff context +0.2 Player availability +0.0 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin −6.1
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −6.1. The 68% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputHOUPHXEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16151487 +0.1
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −58 −2.9
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +7.2−2.3 −2.2
Games played this season 97 −0.5
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 116.5114.7 +0.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 109.3122.9 −2.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.4 −0.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.07.8 +0.0
Rest days 32 +0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo −0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValuePHX ptsHOU ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-57.7−0.92+1.98−2.90
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)122.9+0.47+2.33−1.86
Season scoring margin (away)7.2−1.13+0.44−1.57
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)109.3−0.97+0.03−1.00
Rotation points missing (home)7.8+0.62−0.06+0.67
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.20+0.43−0.63
Season scoring margin (home)-2.3−0.29+0.34−0.63
Games played (away)9.0+0.02+0.36−0.34
Combined pace, last 1098.4−1.80−1.49−0.31
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)114.7+0.16−0.02+0.18
Elo rating (away)1614.9+0.12−0.05+0.17
Games played (home)7.0−0.16+0.00−0.16
Home series wins0.0+0.23+0.10+0.13
Elo rating (home)1487.2−0.05+0.01−0.07
Elimination game0+0.01−0.03+0.04
Rest days (away)3.0±0.00−0.03+0.03
Series pressure0.0+0.04+0.02+0.02
Back-to-back (home)0−0.02±0.00−0.02
Rest days (home)2.0+0.02+0.00+0.01
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)116.5+0.05+0.04+0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.07

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingHOU1615PHX14872.8 pts toward HOU

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

HOU1615

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1588 → started this one at 1566
  2. This season's 9 games: +48.7
  • WDAL128–110+4.9
  • W@SAS114–110+11.1
  • W@ATL121–114+10.8
  • WATL120–110+7.3
  • W@MIL132–100+11.2
  • L@DAL111–116−9.8
  • WOKC119–98+17.0
  • WBOS109–93+10.8
  • LMIN107–117−14.6

PHX1487

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1523
  2. This season's 7 games: −36.2
  • L@POR83–124−22.0
  • WGSW131–122+5.2
  • L@OKC114–125−3.2
  • LDEN120–127−8.7
  • L@GSW113–116−4.3
  • LPOR119–132−13.2
  • WORL117–104+10.0
Season scoring marginHOU+7.2PHX−2.32.7 pts toward HOU

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

HOU+7.2

Scores 117.9, allows 107.6 over 9 games: +10.3 a game.

45% this season (+10.3) + 55% last season (+4.7) = +7.2

PHX−2.3

Scores 113.9, allows 121.4 over 7 games: −7.6 a game.

35% this season (−7.6) + 65% last season (+0.6) = −2.3

Offensive rating, last 10HOU116.5PHX114.70.2 pts toward PHX

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.3).

HOU116.5scored, +4.2 vs league

FactorHOULeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.0%53.3%+2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)12.9%13.3%+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.9%27.3%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2470.228+0.6
Everything else−0.6

PHX114.7scored, +2.4 vs league

FactorPHXLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.6%53.3%+2.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%13.3%+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.5%27.3%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1950.228−0.9
Everything else+0.8
Defensive rating, last 10HOU109.3PHX122.92.9 pts toward HOU

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.3).

HOU109.3allowed, −3.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.0%53.3%+1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)13.4%13.3%+0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.6%27.3%−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1770.228+1.5
Everything else+0.1

PHX122.9allowed, +10.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.7%53.3%−6.6
Turnovers (TOV%)13.5%13.3%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)33.0%27.3%−2.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2620.228−1.0
Everything else−0.7
Pace, last 10average 98.40.3 pts toward HOU

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

HOU 97.6 and PHX 99.2 → average 98.4 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.5)

Rotation points missingHOU0.0PHX7.8no effect on the margin

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

HOU0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-07 16:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

PHX7.8pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jordan Goodwin7.818.75

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-07 16:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestHOU3 daysPHX2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

HOU3days

Last played Nov 4 against MIN.

PHX2days

Last played Nov 5 against ORL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

HOU

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 4MIN107–11735-8213-3724-301814110.3119.497.5
Nov 2BOS109–9343-7914-359-13139121.1104.589.5
Oct 31OKC119–9841-9018-4119-231013126.6104.394.0
Oct 30@DAL111–11640-967-2924-331220109.9116.0100.5
Oct 28@MIL132–10046-8417-3823-26148129.498.0102.0
Oct 26ATL120–11043-818-2726-322112114.3105.8104.5
Oct 24@ATL121–11443-8914-3521-231413121.0115.299.5
Oct 23@SAS114–11038-7810-2528-31158117.5112.297.5
Oct 21DAL128–11047-8816-3618-251517130.6111.198.5
May 1LAL78–9828-805-2817-2411883.9106.592.5

PHX

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 5ORL117–10445-8717-3410-13146117.0103.0100.5
Nov 4POR119–13241-9210-3627-311214114.4126.9104.0
Nov 2@GSW113–11640-8511-3022-30159114.1117.299.0
Oct 30DEN120–12746-9418-4210-111515122.4129.698.0
Oct 26@OKC114–12539-9118-5018-251214117.5127.697.5
Oct 24GSW131–12250-8614-3717-22159129.7119.6101.5
Oct 21@POR83–12430-846-3217-23151386.5126.597.0
Apr 27OKC122–13148-9014-3912-161210125.8136.596.5
Apr 25OKC109–12138-8713-4120-23119111.2122.298.5
Apr 22@OKC107–12039-8511-3118-222115108.1120.099.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
32%
pregame chance the forecast gave PHX, the winner
the forecast favored HOU
9 pts
margin miss
forecast −6, actual +3 for PHX
13th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
67th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 1.13 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statHOUPHX
Final score99102
Field goals36–94 · 38.3%41–85 · 48.2%
Three-pointers10–35 · 28.6%12–34 · 35.3%
Free throws17–19 · 89.5%8–11 · 72.7%
Rebounds4644
Assists1629
Turnovers1415
Steals78
Blocks83

How the model does with these teams over time: Houston Rockets · Phoenix Suns

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (PHX)−6+3+9
Total points228201−27
HOU points11799−18
PHX points111102−9

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-07 16:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.

Houston Rockets

  • Out Clint Capela · Right Ankle Sprain
  • Out Steven Adams · Right Soleus Strain

Phoenix Suns

  • Doubtful Jordan Goodwin
  • Out Mark Williams · Left Shoulder Surgery
  • Questionable Rasheer Fleming · Left Ankle Sprain

Recent form before this game

Houston Rockets

DateOpponentResult
Nov 4 vs MIN L 107–117
Nov 2 vs BOS W 109–93
Oct 31 vs OKC W 119–98
Oct 30 at DAL L 111–116
Oct 28 at MIL W 132–100

Phoenix Suns

DateOpponentResult
Nov 5 vs ORL W 117–104
Nov 4 vs POR L 119–132
Nov 2 at GSW L 113–116
Oct 30 vs DEN L 120–127
Oct 26 at OKC L 114–125

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 7 2025-26 HOU at PHX HOU 119 – 105 PHX
Jan 5 2025-26 PHX at HOU PHX 97 – 100 HOU
Dec 5 2025-26 PHX at HOU PHX 98 – 117 HOU
Nov 24 2025-26 HOU at PHX HOU 114 – 92 PHX
Mar 30 2024-25 HOU at PHX HOU 148 – 109 PHX