The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Dec 27

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Phoenix Suns at Memphis Grizzlies

Tuesday, December 27, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

PHX 2–2@MEM 1–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: PHX 22 percent, MEM 78 percent. PHX Suns 22% proj. 106 · final 125 MEM Grizzlies · home 78% proj. 118 · final 108
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
PHX Phoenix Suns 106 125 +19
MEM Memphis Grizzlies (home) 118 108 −10

Forecast: Memphis Grizzlies to win, 78% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputPHXMEM
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15461609
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +133
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +3.9+4.2
Games played this season 3432
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 113.5113.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 116.8102.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 44.10.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPHX1546MEM1609

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

PHX1546

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1599 → started this one at 1574
  2. First 24 games: +30.9
  3. Last 10 games: −59.1
  • LBOS98–125−19.3
  • L@NOP117–128−7.8
  • L@NOP124–129−4.7
  • L@HOU97–111−19.4
  • W@LAC111–95+15.1
  • WNOP118–114+5.2
  • WLAL130–104+9.6
  • LWAS110–113−11.3
  • LMEM100–125−22.2
  • L@DEN125–128−4.3

MEM1609

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1630 → started this one at 1598
  2. First 22 games: −22.2
  3. Last 10 games: +33.7
  • W@DET122–112+5.7
  • WMIA101–93+6.3
  • WOKC123–102+6.3
  • WDET114–103+3.1
  • WATL128–103+9.4
  • WMIL142–101+20.0
  • L@OKC109–115−12.2
  • L@DEN91–105−13.6
  • W@PHX125–100+22.2
  • L@GSW109–123−13.5
Season scoring marginPHX+3.9MEM+4.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

PHX+3.9

Scores 115.5, allows 111.6 over 34 games: +3.9 a game.

MEM+4.2

Scores 115.5, allows 111.2 over 32 games: +4.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10PHX113.5MEM113.7

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.6).

PHX113.5scored, +0.9 vs league

FactorPHXLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.4%54.2%−2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)10.6%12.6%+2.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.8%23.8%+1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1750.210−1.0
Everything else+0.0

MEM113.7scored, +1.1 vs league

FactorMEMLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.8%54.2%−0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.6%+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.8%23.8%+0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2050.210−0.2
Everything else+0.0
Defensive rating, last 10PHX116.8MEM102.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.6).

PHX116.8allowed, +4.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.0%54.2%−1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%12.6%−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.2%23.8%−2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2400.210−0.9
Everything else+0.5

MEM102.6allowed, −10.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)48.4%54.2%+8.7
Turnovers (TOV%)12.2%12.6%−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.2%23.8%+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2070.210+0.1
Everything else+1.4
Pace, last 10average 100.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

PHX 98.0 and MEM 102.7 → average 100.3 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.9)

Rotation points missingPHX44.1MEM0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

PHX44.1pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Devin Booker21.028.55
Landry Shamet12.423.910
Cameron Payne10.816.14

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-27 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

MEM0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-27 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestPHX2 daysMEM2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

PHX2days

Last played Dec 25 against DEN.

MEM2days

Last played Dec 25 against GSW.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

PHX

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 25@DEN125–12845-9417-3518-261312116.8119.696.9
Dec 23MEM100–12538-879-3515-261411100.0126.399.5
Dec 20WAS110–11341-8913-3215-191415114.6116.596.5
Dec 19LAL130–10446-9320-3918-24815135.4107.296.5
Dec 17NOP118–11439-8315-4125-35810124.2121.394.5
Dec 15@LAC111–9544-959-3214-18815119.4100.094.0
Dec 13@HOU97–11133-10313-5118-1991897.0109.9100.5
Dec 11@NOP124–12949-10513-3813-171419118.1121.795.5
Dec 9@NOP117–12843-8622-449-13168117.0128.0100.0
Dec 7BOS98–12537-938-3216-19181392.5117.9106.0

MEM

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 25@GSW109–12339-949-3922-30139103.8115.0106.0
Dec 23@PHX125–10045-917-2328-381019126.3100.099.5
Dec 20@DEN91–10536-815-2614-2116790.1105.0100.5
Dec 17@OKC109–11534-9012-4529-37910102.8107.5106.5
Dec 15MIL142–10156-10212-3218-23714139.298.1102.5
Dec 12ATL128–10350-8313-3215-18225123.1100.0103.5
Dec 9DET114–10344-919-3217-321412108.698.1105.0
Dec 7OKC123–10248-9414-3813-161410117.197.1105.0
Dec 5MIA101–9342-908-329-9114106.396.995.5
Dec 4@DET122–11243-9215-3521-291312119.6108.7102.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
22%
pregame chance the forecast gave PHX, the winner
the forecast favored MEM
29 pts
margin miss
forecast +12, actual −17 for MEM
15th
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
32nd
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.51 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statPHXMEM
Final score125108
Field goals43–87 · 49.4%36–91 · 39.6%
Three-pointers17–31 · 54.8%8–30 · 26.7%
Free throws22–25 · 88.0%28–34 · 82.4%
Rebounds4740
Assists2618
Turnovers1914
Steals79
Blocks96

How the model does with these teams over time: Phoenix Suns · Memphis Grizzlies

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MEM)+12−17−29
Total points224233+9
PHX points106125+19
MEM points118108−10

Recent form before this game

Phoenix Suns

DateOpponentResult
Dec 25 at DEN L 125–128
Dec 23 vs MEM L 100–125
Dec 20 vs WAS L 110–113
Dec 19 vs LAL W 130–104
Dec 17 vs NOP W 118–114

Memphis Grizzlies

DateOpponentResult
Dec 25 at GSW L 109–123
Dec 23 at PHX W 125–100
Dec 20 at DEN L 91–105
Dec 17 at OKC L 109–115
Dec 15 vs MIL W 142–101

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Dec 23 2022-23 MEM at PHX MEM 125 – 100 PHX
Apr 1 2021-22 PHX at MEM PHX 114 – 122 MEM
Dec 27 2021-22 MEM at PHX MEM 114 – 113 PHX
Nov 12 2021-22 PHX at MEM PHX 119 – 94 MEM